X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

How the 2019 NFL Season Screwed (Most of) Us Over

Pierre Camus reviews the craziness of the 2019 fantasy football season, its biggest busts and surprises and advises how to prepare for next draft season with unique strategies.

The sun has set on the 2019 fantasy football season and I'm glad it's all over. Don't get me wrong, I love football and have been a fan going on 35 years now, 28 of which I've played fantasy. I spend sunrise to sundown each Sunday watching, analyzing, and agonizing over a multitude of statistics, trends, and decisions that will define the week. It's the best part of the week each fall/winter. But it can often be the worst too.

Being a sports obsessed nut fan means I'm competitive by nature. I want to win whenever possible. More importantly, I also want to make sure I've given advice that will help others win. That's why I nearly swore off fantasy football altogether after Week 14. I had ranked Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo outside the top 20 quarterbacks before their epic 48-46 showdown in which each threw for 349 yards and a combined nine touchdowns. I didn't have Darius Slayton as a top-50 WR and he proceeded to go off for 154 yards and two scores. Don't get me started on Mitch Trubisky...

It turns out my rankings that week went much better than I had anticipated (I finished 14th in FantasyPros' Expert Rankings Accuracy list) but my own teams didn't fare so well. I was officially eliminated in all but two of my season-long fantasy leagues. I went on to lose in the semi-finals of one of those leagues and would lose in the finals of the other. Here's the kicker - my first-place team that had Christian McCaffrey would lose to a team that played Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kenyan Drake and scored an obscene amount of points to which I couldn't respond. That ending was the most fitting way to end an absurd 2019 season that saw more early-round busts and failed sleepers than I can remember. So, I hope you'll excuse me if I vent one last time about this year before looking ahead to next year. Hopefully, we can all learn some valuable lessons along the way.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Where It All Went Wrong

Let's get one thing out the way before getting into the details. You absolutely can win or lose your draft in the first round. More than ever, the discrepancy between the production levels of various high-profile players was significant enough to shape the destinies of fantasy leagues before the opening kickoff of Week 1.

Here are the top 12 picks of 2019 based on NFFC preseason ADP results, along with their final fantasy finish after Week 16 (half-PPR scoring).

1- Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG): RB11
2- Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR): RB1
3- Alvin Kamara (RB, NO): RB13
4- Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL): RB3
5- DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU): WR3
6- David Johnson (RB, ARI): RB34
7- Davante Adams (WR, GB): WR34
8- Le'Veon Bell (RB, NYJ): RB19
9- Michael Thomas (WR, NO): WR1
10- Julio Jones (WR, ATL): WR4
11- James Conner (RB, PIT): RB32
12- Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE): WR30

Just seeing some of those names might make you cry. Seven of the first 12 picks didn't even finish in the top-10 at their position much less overall. Injuries can be blamed for players like Davante Adams and David Johnson missing several weeks worth of production but others like OBJ, Kamara, and Bell have no such excuse. If you were unlucky enough to take DJ or Conner, chances are you didn't win that league unless you drafted Dalvin Cook in the second round and/or picked Lamar Jackson as your QB.

Speaking of the second round, it was just as volatile as the first in terms of final production. Dalvin Cook was the second-highest fantasy scorer at running back despite missing Week 16 and half of Week 15. Nick Chubb nearly wound up as the leading rusher in the NFL. Travis Kelce came close to repeating last year's numbers, minus a few touchdowns, still proving he was worth a high draft pick.

Then there's Damien Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Antonio Brown. Williams had no business being taken so high in the first place but those two receivers were supposed to be among the safest possible picks. It would have been impossible to foresee JuJu's lengthy injury absence or Brown's.... issues. That comes with the territory to some extent but when you pair any of those huge busts with another player from the first round and you potentially had a disaster on your hands, especially if you went with the "safety" of the Steelers offense. Which brings me to the personal side of this issue. Warning: heavy tilting ahead.

 

From First to Worst

I must preface this story by stating that in 2018, I won the RotoBaller Experts League, the very one I'm about to tell you about. I wound up winning three of my seven redraft leagues that year. I don't say this to brag, rather to explain that I came into 2019 fully expecting to dominate again. Instead, it was a complete shock and humbling experience to someone who was coming off a pretty successful year. Anyone can have a terrible draft or experience a disappointing season but I literally went from first to worst in the league I consider most competitive. Therefore, it will do good for my soul and next year's draft prep to do a retrospective in order to see where I went so wrong personally. Hopefully, you can learn from my mistakes too.

Here's the draft board covering the first 10 rounds (click to see full-sized image):

I'm "Really Really Bad JuJu" for obvious reasons, drafting out of the eighth slot. I started out as "Good JuJu," transitioned to "Bad JuJu" halfway through the season and then to my final incarnation which doesn't even do justice to how wretched things turned out.

My selection of James Conner eighth overall wasn't a reach based on his preseason ADP. He was supposed to be a high-floor pick based on the offense he plays in and the offensive line in front of him. Big Ben's season-ending injury and Conner's inability to stay on the field made him one of the most frustrating players to own all season because you never know when he could be trusted in your lineup. Even worse, there was no singular handcuff that could be used to replace him like DeAngelo Williams did for Le'Veon Bell back in the day.

Take all of the above statements and apply them equally to my second pick and team namesake, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Injuries and inconsistency led him to finish outside the top-60 among wide receivers. He was outscored by both Diontae Johnson and James Washington on the year. Doubling down on Steelers has been a winning strategy for years but it spelled doom in 2019.

Looking back, Michael Thomas was taken one pick before me in the second round. Think about the difference between 94 total points and 297 points at one spot and what that would have meant if things had gone another way. If you don't believe that a single pick can be the difference between winning or losing, that team, who also took Julio "boring" Jones in the first round, finished in first place during the regular season.

Upon further examination, that same team swung and missed at several mid-round picks like Josh Gordon, Rashaad Penny, Sammy Watkins, and Albert Wilson. Securing two of the top-10 fantasy players early made up for a series of busts later on. In other words, it's all about quality at the top, not quantity of players you hit on. There's a waiver wire for a reason.

Going back to my team, I could have made up for the early busts with a player like Derrick Henry or Chris Godwin in round three. Both players finished 2018 strong and were among the most popular breakout picks. Those both turned out to be wise forecasts. Instead, I opted for the upside of a young running back in the Patriots backfield, Sony Michel, who just needed to stay healthy to thrive with an increased workload. Or not. My brilliant selection of Austin Ekeler in the sixth was the only positive among the group of starters I assembled. Let's forget the Dante Pettis thing ever happened and never speak of him again.

The middle rounds of this draft, and all others like it, were riddled with inconsequential picks and players that were later dropped or benched. In fantasy football, you only start somewhere between 6-10 offensive players most of the time. Having that one heavy hitter like C-Mac, Can'tGuardMike, or Lamar "MVP" Jackson is sometimes enough on its own. This leads us to the first of our lessons.

 

Lessons Learned

Aside from exorcising the demons of fantasy football past, the purpose of this examination is to produce forward-looking analysis. Here are the strategies I will be mindful of when drafting in 2020.

Seek the breakout

Fantasy football is a weekly game. You've heard that before. Streamers can get you by at quarterback, tight end, and flex spots on any given week. Waiver wire pickups can become your RB2 or WR3 if they pan out. But none of that will win you a championship alone. The highest percentage of league winners will have certain players in common and those are the ones who led the way at their position. As mentioned above, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Lamar Jackson were leaps and bounds above the competition this season.

When you see just how far each of those players outdistanced themselves from the rest of their peers, all those other picks seem quite insignificant. If you make the right pick early and identify that one player later on such as Henry, Godwin, or Jackson, you've got a huge leg up before the season has started.

Diversify your interests

Stacking players on high-powered offenses is a popular strategy. It doesn't always work and can sometimes backfire terribly (see Steelers, Pittsburgh). Many of our readers/viewers made comments early in the year that any player on the Chiefs offense was worth owning. This led to crazy FAAB bids for players like Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, and even Matt Moore at various points in the season. It isn't that simple. You're better off prioritizing players on bad teams that are due for a higher amount of touches or targets. Instead of DeMarcus Robinson, you should have been targeting Terry McLaurin or Devante Parker.

Go Zero RB

The running back renaissance is dead just as soon as it arrived. Did anyone doubt that Alvin Kamara would return first-round value or that Saquon Barkley was a consensus top-three pick? Five of the seven RBs taken in the first round of most leagues proved to be disappointments. Odell Beckham is the only receiver who can be labeled as such. At least Davante Adams' injury was transparent and allowed for a replacement during those several weeks. Just take a wideout first, maybe even a tight end like Kelce or Kittle, and find your RB1 later on or play the waiver wire game.

Stop playing head-to-head

I'll save the expanded explanation of this for an upcoming article and podcast (subscribe to the RotoBaller Youtube channel to get notifications) but let's all admit that H2H is not the best way to determine a league champion. There is always luck involved in any sport, both in fantasy and reality, but nothing infuriates those vying for a trophy more than a fluke injury, bad penalty, or vultured touchdown making the difference between first and second place. I have some proposals in mind that can limit the luck factor while retaining the personal interaction of head-to-head leagues but again, that's for another time and place.

All told, 2019 was a season that saw more surprises than usual in a league that is seemingly in constant flux. Parity persists, which means that you can likely kiss this year's Super Bowl loser goodbye on draft day. Start turning the page to 2020 and look for a new batch of risers to take up the mantle of fantasy stardom.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP