RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! It's great to be back with you after a week off for the CJ Cup at the Summit, a golf course for which we had no course history. Rory McIlroy romped on the benign Las Vegas layout to capture his 20th career victory on the PGA Tour and remind us that he's always capable of winning golf tournaments no matter his recent form.
This week we head to Japan for the second leg of the "Asian Swing", the ZOZO Championship. Unlike last week, we do at least have a tiny sliver of course history for this event. Let's dive in!
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2022 ZOZO Championship
First of all, let me say that the fall season presents some frustrating issues, namely, "What the heck do we label these events?". Obviously, this is 2021, but we're now in the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, so - I believe - this is officially considered the 2022 ZOZO Championship with the 2023 version of the ZOZO set to be played next year...in 2022. It's all very confusing and has absolutely nothing to do with PGA DFS. Moving on...
The normally-South Korean-based CJ Cup was once again held in Las Vegas last week due to COVID complications, but the ZOZO Championship will return to Japan this week on an Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club layout on which Tiger Woods triumphed back in 2019 - although it was the 2020 ZOZO, here we go again - for the most recent victory of his illustrious career. Basically, we're dealing with a very tiny sample size of four rounds of play on this layout, which isn't enough to give us a great picture of course history performance.
While last week's CJ Cup was stacked, the ZOZO field is noticeably weaker, which I'm sure we can attribute to the travel to Japan and all the headaches that come with international travel in today's world. Japanese superstar Hideki Matsuyama will be the hometown favorite and he'll be joined by Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Will Zalatoris. There's a noticeable dropoff outside of the elite handful of players that will be in attendance, which will add some volatility to this PGA DFS slate. However, this is a no-cut format, which means we'll be guaranteed four rounds for all of our players.
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The Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Par 70 - 7,041 Yards, Greens: Bent, Architect: Kinya Fujita
Opened in 1965, Narashino is one of the most highly-regarded golf clubs in Japan. Short by modern standards at just over 7,000 yards, this is a fairly tight, tree-lined layout - a style that's popular throughout Japan. Players will face multiple doglegs and water hazards when making the loop, while fairway and greenside bunkers offer some protection for this shortish course. Uniquely, this course has two different greens for every hole in order to adjust to Japan's seasonal climates and I expect the same greens - the Bentgrass ones - that were utilized in 2019 to be put into play again in this edition. We'll also see five Par-3s and just three Par-5s this week, so I will pay a little extra attention to Par-3 scoring for the ZOZO.
Despite its short length, Narashino didn't appear to be a course that could be overpowered in the 2020 ZOZO, as we saw generational iron players, Tiger Woods & Hideki Matsuyama, succeed with precision and accuracy. That's the direction I'll take this week by favoring Total Driving over Driving Distance, as well as leaning on SG: Approach and Proximity.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent ZOZO Championship Winners
- Patrick Cantlay (-23) *Held At Sherwood Country Club
- Tiger Woods (-19)
The Horse
Collin Morikawa
Notable Course History: T22 (2020 Season)
DraftKings Price: $11,200 FanDuel Price: $
I wish I could say there were some spicy #HawtTakes in this week's edition of HFTC, but due to the relatively limited sample size of course history and the overall weak nature of this field, we're dealing with things in a fairly straightforward manner this week. As a result, Collin Morikawa earns Horse honors for the ZOZO, an event in which he logged a T22 in his previous trip to Narashino Country Club.
As mentioned in the course overview, I'm looking for razor-sharp iron play and solid Total Driving this week. Morikawa is perhaps the best iron player we've seen since Tiger Woods, the man that it just so happens won in the only version of the ZOZO held on this golf course. Morikawa battled through a back injury in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so his recent statistics aren't going to be great, but if we look at his long-term metrics, he's off the charts. Over the last 50 rounds the young star ranks first in this field in SG: Approach, Ball Striking, T2G, & Total, while also standing first in Good Drives & GIRs Gained. Simply put, he's a once-in-a-generation caliber ball striker. The Cal alum also happens to head to Japan in sharp form, as he's coming off a blistering final-round 62 in the CJ Cup. The youngster has a lot of Tiger-like qualities and this Narashino course is almost tailor-made to suit the strengths of his game.
The Ponies
Xander Schauffele
Notable Course History: T10 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $11,000 FanDuel Price: $
I told you this was a straightforward week...While I'd like to get fancy, Xander is another one of this small group of players that is both A.) Elite and B.) Has seen this golf course.
Schauffele recorded a T10 in the lone version of the ZOZO to be held in Japan and - not that it statistically matters - but he also won a gold medal in the Olympic games earlier this year in Japan. In other words, Schauffele is a world-class player with a game that travels internationally and is adaptable to any type of layout. His ranking of fourth in the field in SG: Total over the last 50 rounds indicates just how complete the Californian's game is and he stands inside the top-10 in SG: T2G, Ball Striking, & Approach over his last 24 rounds.
Like the aforementioned Morikawa, Schauffele is also coming off a scorching final-round performance at the CJ Cup, as he fired a final-round 63 in Vegas to finish in a share of 18th place. He'll bring that positive momentum to a layout that is a better overall fit for his game (translation: less of a birdie fest).
Hideki Matsuyama
Notable Course History: 2nd ('20)
DraftKings Price: $10,300 FanDuel Price: $
Hideki comes into the week with the ultimate "home-court advantage", as the Japanese superstar is intimately familiar with both Narashino Country Club and the overall style of Japanese courses. Outside of a playoff loss at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, Matsuyama has been relatively quiet since his life-changing triumph at the Masters in April. While we can probably lay a lot of the blame on Matsuyama's post-Masters victory tour in Japan and its required quarantine time, the 29-year-old has also battled COVID-19 and the pressure cooker of performing in his home country for the Olympic games.
With all that behind him, 'Deki heads home to the ZOZO and a course on which he logged a solo second in the 2020 edition of this event. However, he is currently struggling with a familiar problem...an ice-cold putter. He lost a mind-boggling 9.6 strokes on the greens in Las Vegas last week - the third-worst performance of his entire career - and he's now lost strokes putting in each of his last five starts and eight of his last 10. Perhaps he can turn things around on Narashino's ultra-pure greens this week and I expect him to once again perform well in his home country due to his ball-striking ability and comfort level on this layout.
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Adam Schenk
Notable Course History: T22 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $8,200 FanDuel Price: $10,000
Yes, it is kinda stomach-churning to recommend Adam Schenk at a DK price of $8.2k...but this salary scale gets real ugly, real fast. It adds up to Schenk becoming a viable GPP option, as he did post a respectable T22 in the '20 edition of the ZOZO. In addition to the Narashino experience, the former Purdue Boilermaker has displayed some upside as of late. Schenk scored a T3 at the Shriners two weeks ago and also posted a notable top-five finish at the John Deere in July. The 29-year-old was actually in a great position to win both of those events before underwhelming final-round performances in each instance. Perhaps he can take the next step this week on a golf course that suits his skill set. He grades out 14th in the field in Good Drives Gained and is proficient on both Par-3s (18th in SG: Par-3) and Par-4s (21st SG: Par-4). Schenk has also demonstrated the ability to make birdies (seventh in Birdies Gained) and dodge big numbers (13th Bogeys Avoided). I honestly don't love the price tag, but this is a super-thin field with a no-cut format - factors that put him squarely in play for me in this situation.
Troy Merritt
Notable Course History: T30 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $6,900 FanDuel Price: $
Merritt might seem a random player to land on as we close out the ZOZO writeup, but the 35-year-old brings some nice underlying factors to the table this week. Merritt has some Narashino experience under his belt - he posted a T30 in the 2020 ZOZO - and the two-time PGA Tour winner isn't too far removed from playing some really good golf. He put together a nice string of results in the summer, posting three top-10 finishes in the month of May. That stretch culminated with a runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage in July, when he lost a playoff to Cameron Davis. Merritt has been relatively quiet since but did pop up to log a T16 at the Fortinet Championship in the fall season opener. His game revolves around accuracy rather than length - he ranks 12th in Fairways Gained & 19th in Good Drives Gained - and this 7,000-ish yard layout is one that he has the ability to handle well.
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