ATC Projections: Hitter Fantasy Baseball Surprises and Concerns for 2025 Drafts

February 18, 2025

Corbin Young's hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, busts based on 2025 ATC projections. His fantasy baseball hitter targets and fades for drafts.

Using the ATC projections, we have a few ways to find surprising players based on the projection systems. One way is to look at the projected auction values compared to the average draft position and see which players might be value selections. Value is a tricky word since we're (usually) discussing projected value based on feelings or numbers. 

Depending on the roster and league size, drafting and constructing one's roster is more than selecting values versus ADP. Part of that process involves asking ourselves if and how that player fits into our draft plan and team construct. That said, even though these players might be values or fades based on the ATC projections, it doesn't mean they may not fit into one's roster construction.

After scouring the ATC projections, we found 10 hitters to examine into categories of positive and concerning surprises. We'll look at ATC projection surprises and concerns among hitters inside the top 200 picks in ADP. What do their skills indicate? Should we target or fade these players or not?

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Positive Surprises Based on ATC Projections

Anthony Santander (OF, TOR)

ADP (NFBC): 105.6 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 68

Santander joined the Blue Jays in January after reaching a career-best in home runs (44) and earned value ($20) with the Orioles. He used to struggle with injuries but posted three consecutive seasons with over 640 plate appearances. Though Santander outperformed his expected home runs (32) by a decent chunk, his power skills (Expected Power Index or xPX) aligned with his output (Power Index or PX).

When a hitter like Santander boasts elite power skills, we'll see a higher xBA, especially considering he makes above-average contact rates. The main issue with the batting average catching up to the xBA involves the pull-heavy (44.8 percent) and flyball (54.8 percent) approach. That typically doesn't bode well for batting average with the extreme flyballs.

While it's safe to expect some regression, Santander gives us the three to four-category juice like a discounted version of Pete Alonso in the outfield position. If fantasy managers build around Santander's lack of speed, they have a potential value pick per ATC Projections.

Jeremy Pena (SS, HOU)

ADP (NFBC): 167.9 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 113

After a solid rookie season in 2022 with 22 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .253 batting average, Peña lost power (10 HR) but maintained the rest of the profile in 2023. However, Peña bounced back with more volume, plus another balanced season with 15 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a .266 batting average.

Peña improved his contact rate to a career-best (81 percent), keeping the .260 xBA afloat, though he lacks the power skills. His below-average Expected Power Index (xPX) at 76 in 2024 compared to a career rate of 85 and a 4.2 percent barrel per plate appearance rate suggests he needs volume to compile 15 or more home runs.

Peña saw his stolen base opportunity rate reach a career-high (18 percent) while converting 76 percent of his chances. He possesses above-average athleticism and defensive metrics, aligning with the stolen base ability, though we saw the defense data decline in 2024.

The shortstop position is top-heavy, with the top nine going inside the top 50 picks, with the murkiness beginning beyond the top 100 in ADP. Prioritize Peña or Masyn Winn around pick 125 because fantasy managers may need to bump them up a round or so. 

Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC)

ADP (NFBC): 177.1 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 126

Swanson missed time due to a sprained knee in 2024, causing him to not compile 600 or more plate appearances in four straight seasons (2021-2024). Before 2024, Swanson had been a consistent five-category producer, with the decline being in RBI last season.

The contact skills have been relatively consistent, though we saw a dip in power skills. That's evident by his 100 xPX compared to a career average of 122. We have a slightly smaller change in 2024 via barrels per plate appearance at 6.1 percent compared to over seven percent in the three previous seasons.

The wildcard might be the stolen base opportunities because he saw career-bests in steals in 2022 (18) and 2024 (19) when he had a career-high in stolen base opportunity rate. That's evident via the 14 percent stolen base opportunity rate in 2022 (14 percent) and 2024 (15 percent) compared to a career average of 10 percent.

If fantasy managers miss on Peña and Winn, prioritize Swanson shortly thereafter as their starting shortstop or middle infield spot. That's especially true with the uncertainty with Bo Bichette, Xander Bogaerts, and Xavier Edwards going nearby.

Taylor Ward (OF, LAA)

ADP (NFBC): 193.8 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 107

After a breakout season in Year Five (2022), Ward suffered a face fracture, causing a dip in production in 2023. He bounced back in 2024 with career bests across the board, including home runs (25), RBI (75), and plate appearances (663). Though his contact rates fell by two to three percentage points compared to 2022 and 2023, his power metrics improved to a career-high in 2024.

That's evident in Ward's career-high xPX of 156 compared to a PX of 116, similar to his career xPX (142) and PX (113). Ward matched his barrel per plate appearance rate in 2024 (8.4 percent) to 2022 (8.3 percent). Among hitters with 5,000 pitches seen, Ward ranked 32nd in barrels per plate appearance (7.7 percent) among 151 qualified hitters.

Expect a mixture of 2022 and 2024, assuming fluky injuries don't hit in 2025, making him a massive value selection. That's especially true since Ward will garner the volume, with 84.6 percent of his plate appearances in the top three lineup spots in 2024. Buy, buy, buy on Ward.

Gleyber Torres (2B, DET)

ADP (NFBC): 216.2 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 168

While we can expect volume for Torres with a new team, he saw some skills decline. His contact rate fell to 76 percent in 2024 after 83 percent in 2023 compared to a career average (77 percent), with his xPX (92) falling to a career-low since 2021 (84 xPX).

It's a concerning trend that the power skills fell because we've seen his home run rate decline. Furthermore, the Tigers' home ballpark ranks in the bottom 10 (21st) in Statcast Park Factors and 25th in HR Park Factors.

Meanwhile, the Yankees' home ballpark was in the middle of the pack, yet third in HR Park Factor overall and second in HR Park Factor for right-handed hitters. Before 2024, Torres had a stolen bases opportunity rate in double digits from 2021 to 2023. Team context matters since the Yankees ranked third in stolen base opportunities compared to the Tigers at 19th.

Torres looks like a discounted version of Bichette and Bogaerts, with a later ADP among infielders. Look toward Torres as a middle infield option because the second base position becomes muddy past pick 150 or so.

Concerning Surprises Based on ATC Projections

James Wood (OF, WSH)

ADP (NFBC): 53.3 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 83

As one of the top prospects in fantasy baseball, Wood showed the power and speed skills, with nine home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .264 batting average in 336 plate appearances. Wood may continue struggling with plate discipline, possibly because of his size (6-foot-7 and 240 pounds).

Wood struggles to make contact, with a 67 percent contact rate in 2024. He takes a patient approach, with a low chase rate (21.9 percent) and a swing percentage (38.2 percent) nearly 10 percentage points below the league average (47.8 percent). This helps him keep his on-base skills high, with double-digit walk rates and high on-base percentages throughout the minors.

Some prospects with high-end power skills, like Wood, showed average power metrics and didn't meet expectations in the majors. That's evident in the 100 xPX and 20 percent HR/FB, though the Wood might balance that out with the higher volume. Like other young hitters, Wood struggles to elevate the ball, with a 55 percent groundball rate.

When hitters have lower launch angles, we want them to crush balls when in the air. That's evident in Wood's average exit velocity on flyballs, and line drives at 96.9 mph (No. 14), tying him with Brent Rooker and Rafael Devers for reference.

Wood possesses the power and speed tools, given his above-average athleticism and the highest stolen base opportunity rate (24 percent) in his rookie season. He struggled to convert his chances into stolen bases, with a 63 percent conversion rate, but the Nationals had the most stolen bases (223) as one of three teams with 200 or more steals in 2024. The other two teams were the Brewers (217) and Reds (207).

For context, no teams had over 200 stolen bases in 2023, with the Reds at the highest (190), which was a massive uptick from the Rangers (128) leading the league in 2022 and the Royals at No. 1 (124) in 2021. That suggests the Nationals team could run at a high rate again, leading to the stolen base volume being in his favor.

If fantasy managers want safety, Wood might be an avoid, though there's 20/20 potential, with 25/25 being within the range of outcomes.

The ADP projects a jump in production, and though Wood doesn't appear like a value, he does have a balanced profile to target, with a 4.56 Dim, similar to Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, and Ozzie Albies. This might be a scenario where we manually override the projections and make him a target.

Mark Vientos (3B, NYM)

ADP (NFBC): 94.4 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 133

Vientos had a productive postseason, with five home runs, eight runs, 14 RBI, and a .327 batting average in 58 plate appearances. That came after his breakout season, with 27 homers and a .266 batting average in 454 plate appearances. He outperformed his expected numbers with 23 xHR, 169 PX, and 123 xPX. That's still above-average power, aligning with the high HR/F.

We might expect some regression in the HR/FB rate since it should be closer to 17 percent based on the xPX. He destroys the ball when he elevates it, evidenced by the 96 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (No. 24) and an 8.8 percent barrels per plate appearance rate.

Like some power hitters, Vientos displays below-average plate discipline, with a 67 percent contact rate, about eight percentage points below the league average. That might lead to some batting average concerns as ATC projects (.242), though Vientos hits the ball hard enough to keep the xBA high.

We have a decent sample in 2024 to project him for more playing time and surpass the 30-home run mark. This feels like a slightly more expensive Jake Burger profile, though there's a prospect pedigree to dream of with Vientos. It's not a complete fade, but maybe one to see if he falls past ADP.

Royce Lewis (3B, MIN)

ADP (NFBC): 117.1 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 192

Over the past three seasons, Lewis averaged more than 113 days on the injured list for a knee injury, ACL surgery, strained oblique, strained hamstring, strained quad, and adductor strain.

Lewis had 31 home runs in 509 plate appearances over the past two seasons, averaging 0.06 HR per PA. If we presume 550 plate appearances, Lewis would have 33-34 home runs, but some might laugh at that projection since it hasn't happened.

The power skills have been in the high-end range (133 xPX) in 2024, aligning with the career average (132). Lewis's issues aren't the skills but the health and volume of plate appearances. If we could guarantee 550 plate appearances or more, he's worth the pick at his price.

Injury-riddled players can occasionally avoid missing time, especially with an optimistic view being he finished the season healthy. The Twins have the 11th-highest cash total per missed days via Spotrac, meaning their players have accumulated tons of dollars via injuries. Lewis should be valued somewhere in between the ADP and ATC Projected Value.

Brice Turang (2B, MIL)

ADP (NFBC): 144.4 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 185

Defense, speed, and plate discipline make up Turang's profile. After Turang had a 27 percent stolen base opportunity rate in 2023, it jumped to 35 percent in 2024. That led to a 50-steal season by Turang, contributing to 23 percent of the Brewers' stolen bases. His elite zone contact rate of 92.2 percent keeps his floor high.

ATC projects significant regression in the stolen bases, though a slight step back in plate appearances. In NFBC leagues, fantasy managers will see the 50 stolen bases and be willing to pay for the bags. However, Turang might be replaceable since he mainly provides one-to-two-category juice, especially in shallower leagues. We'll need to build around Turang in drafts.

Josh Jung (3B, TEX)

ADP (NFBC): 217 (Since Jan. 15)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 283

Jung had season-ending wrist surgery to close out 2024, and an update in January stated he fully recovered. He started the season on the injured list with a fractured right wrist after being hit by a pitch on April 1. Jung had surgery on his wrist, causing him to miss time during the 2024 season, and then needed an additional procedure on the same wrist to close out the season.

That provides context for the possible cautious projection for Jung, though he had a peak season of 515 plate appearances in 2023. His plate discipline has been mediocre to below average. Thankfully, before 2024, Jung boasted high-end to near-elite power skills, with a career xPX of 145 and 7.2 percent barrels per plate appearance rate, over two percentage points above the league average.

The ATC Projections look fairly conservative, though it's a relatively balanced profile for Jung, with a 4.58 Dim supporting it. For context, Ariel Cohen mentioned the highest Dim is 5.00 or a player with the most balanced profile. That makes him a potential value and not an automatic fade if he maintains the category balance while having the health and volume in his favor in 2025.

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