High-Powered Offenses: Players To Target in Week 7 Lineups Include Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, Chase Brown, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Schultz, more

October 17, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 7 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, Chase Brown, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Schultz, and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 7 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 7.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal will be not to repeat offenses on a week-to-week basis, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that bye weeks are upon us with the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys off in Week 7, reducing the amount of offenses we can highlight.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offenses Recap

Week 6 was full of fireworks with nine squads scoring at least 30 points, including two over 40 and one over 50. We had another entertaining contest for the second consecutive week to kick things off on Thursday.

Additionally, passing was alive and well again with four signals-callers throwing for more than 300 yards and seven tossing at least three touchdowns, three of which threw for four. The offenses appear to be in midseason form, having overcome the rocky start to the year. 

• Detroit Lions - 47 points scored (2nd)
• Atlanta Falcons - 38 points scored (4th)
• San Francisco 49ers - 36 points scored (5th)
• Washington Commanders - 23 points scored (tied for 12th)
• Philadelphia Eagles - 20 points scored (tied for 16th)

It was another superb week for targeting offenses. We identified three top-5 offenses, including Detroit, Atlanta, and San Francisco. The Commanders and Eagles didn't quite hit how we hoped, but they were still top-half offenses.

There were two defensive or special teams touchdowns this week, neither of which came from these five teams, further boosting our selections. Let's keep this success rolling in Week 7.

Week 7 Offenses to Target

• Minnesota Vikings
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Houston Texans
• Green Bay Packers
• New England Patriots

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns. 

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place them in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

The gap between home and road teams closed dramatically this week, thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans, and Detroit Lions all scoring more than 40 points. Combine that with poor home efforts from the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, who failed to hit 10 points, and you've got your answer.

We'll probably see this correct itself to some degree with the Bills, Packers, Vikings, Falcons, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Commanders all at home this week.

We stayed patient with the parameters for the offensive plays and it paid off. After six weeks, there's a discrepancy of almost a point between the teams running at least 65.0 plays each week compared to those running fewer. This mirrors the increased passing volume and improved quarterback performances we've seen the past two weeks.

It'll likely take a few weeks for this to become a clear distinction that can we hone in on, but it's promising based on the past three years of data.

Not much has changed with the offensive yards and touchdowns metrics, although the difference between the "above average" and "average" range in both metrics is getting closer. Nevertheless, teams in that upper echelon are the ones we want to target.

Week 7 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Minnesota Vikings 

Minnesota entered Week 6 as one of only two undefeated teams. Thanks to a bye week, it remains in that position. It also got some much-needed rest for players like Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones, who dealt with injuries against the Jets in Week 5.

It's easy to forget how well-rounded it has been thus far because it had a down game in London against New York and didn't play last week. However, there's no denying this team is in first place in the NFC for a reason, even if it isn't the top contender.

The Vikings' Week 5 outing hurt their overall numbers, but they still rank sixth in points per game at 27.8, eighth in offensive touchdowns at 2.8, and 17th in yards at 323.2 while averaging just 59 plays per game. The latter two statistics are lower because their defense is so elite that they end up with short fields.

There were several reasons the matchup in Week 5 was problematic, including it being Darnold's original team heightening his emotions, New York's secondary being elite in featuring superstar Sauce Gardner and his counterpart D.J. Reed, and finally, they had to travel to London, which rarely bodes well for offensive output. Fortunately, their defense bailed them out, and things look a lot different in Week 7.

They'll return to the comforts of U.S. Bank Stadium with a ferocious crowd eager to take down their division rivals. The Lions are a legitimate juggernaut that most analysts would rank above the Vikings. However, defensively, they are still exploitable through the air, especially after the unfortunate injury to Pro Bowler Aidan Hutchinson.

Like Jared Goff, Darnold is far more decisive with a clean pocket, which shouldn't be an issue. Furthermore, Detroit's offense can score, forcing Minnesota to stay aggressive in a potential shootout with a 49.5-point over/under.

The obvious: The Vikings' trio of skill-position players featuring Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Addison has been unstoppable. Jefferson finds the end zone with regularity, Jones is the offense's engine, and Addison is a big play waiting to happen. The only question mark is about Jones' health. He's been limited so far this week, but the team traded for Cam Akers, which could be a sign he's at risk of missing. If he's active, he's in there for you.

UPDATE: Jones returned to practice, putting him on track to suit up.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Sam Darnold ought to get back on track here and fits in as a nice streamer with top-10 upside if the touchdowns come through the air.

Player No. 2 - Ty Chandler wasn't seeing as much work behind Jones, struggling to provide flex value, but that might change if Jones is playing through an injury and has his snaps limited. We'll need more information over the weekend before knowing how to handle Chandler, but he could move up the ranks. Akers joining the roster may have a small impact on Chandler's workload.

UPDATE: Chandler falls into the risky flex option range with Jones active.

Offense No. 2 - Cincinnati Bengals

It wasn't all roses for the Bengals in Week 6 against the Giants, but New York has proven to be a challenge in low-scoring, gritty games. The Bengals have been a difficult matchup, winning two of their four previous contests while losing the other two by a combined nine points.

While Cincinnati only scored 17 points, it ran the ball well with 20 carries for 121 yards. Its defense also showed up for the first time since Week 1. It was a far cry from the shootout we saw with the Ravens in Week 5, but the passing attack will bounce back.

Despite a disappointing output, it still sits 10th in points per game at 26.17, seventh in offensive touchdowns at 3.0, and 12th in yards at 349.83 on 58 plays per week. The Bengals have been more efficient at finding the end zone than other offenses, partially due to their wonderful wideouts.

The next opportunity for them to showcase their talents is on the road in Cleveland. The Browns nearly knocked off Philly, but that has more to do with the Eagles. Five out of six teams have scored at least 20 points against the Browns, two of them going over 30.

They also allow the 12th-most yards per pass attempt at 6.8 and the 12th-most yards per rush attempt at 4.7. Not to mention they just shipped Amari Cooper to the Bills, further hurting their offense.

The obvious: The duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were both fine from a fantasy perspective, accounting for 12 (63%) of Joe Burrow's 19 completions and 149 (71.6%) of his 208 passing yards. The concentration on these two is what makes them so valuable. Burrow was not electric as a passer but added a 47-yard scamper to the house to boost his stats. He's a top-12 signal-caller with a high ceiling.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Chase Brown is slowly taking over this backfield, especially on the early downs. He's seen a steady rise in running back rush share each week from 25.0% in Week 1 to 62.5% last week against the Giants. He also has a 51% success rate compared to 31% for Zack Moss. The game script and workload make him the preferred tailback.

Player No. 2 - While things are trending in the wrong direction for Zack Moss, he's still been earning targets with a 10% target share this season and four or more in four out of six contests. His receiving role keeps him in the mix as a flex option, especially in full-PPR formats.

Offense No. 3 - Green Bay Packers

The Packers were all over the Cardinals from the get-go. They built a 24-0 lead before slowing things down. Their final output was 34 points and 407 yards of offense. Credit also goes to their defense, which forced and recovered three fumbles.

They're meeting preseason expectations with another chance to deliver this week against Houston. It's a tough opponent, but that's good for the offense because it will be forced to keep firing. It's also at Lambeau, which favors Green Bay.

Even with Malik Willis at the helm for two contests, Green Bay is scoring 27 points per game (eighth), 2.83 offensive touchdowns, and 400 yards per week. Furthermore, it is tied for sixth in plays per game at 64.3, making it an ideal target.

The obvious: There are so many weapons in this offense that, at times, it's hard to trust any of them. The man who benefits from this array of pass-catchers is Jordan Love, who has quickly ascended into a top-10 NFL and fantasy quarterback. He's one of only a handful of QBs you can count on for multiple touchdowns every week.

His top target is Jayden Reed, who has the bonus of operating as a runner. He's the clear No. 1 for this offense. The other consistent contributor is their splashy offseason signing, Josh Jacobs. Emanuel Wilson continues to eat into his workload, but that hasn't prevented him from producing top-24 numbers. Additionally, he's due to find the end zone because he's only scored once on 108 carries.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tucker Kraft tied Romeo Doubs for the most routes run last week. Unfortunately, it didn't result in the production we saw the two weeks prior. Some of that can be attributed to the deep shots Love hit, which ended drives early, preventing the need for checkdowns or short passes.

Luckily, that could change this week against Houston, which pressures opposing quarterbacks at the highest rate this year, which should force Love to lean on players like Kraft and Reed. Kraft deserves a shot to redeem himself as a top-12 tight end.

Player No. 2 - Dontayvion Wicks has been ruled out, opening up more opportunities for Christian Watson, who caught a 44-yard touchdown in his first game back from injury. He's a boom-bust flex option.

Player No. 3 - Romeo Doubs finished with three grabs, but two of them resulted in a touchdown. He does have a knack for scoring, but he's still a volatile wideout, given the lower volume.

Offense No. 4 - Houston Texans

Houston walked into Gillette Stadium feeling confident after knocking off the Bills the week prior. Taking on a rookie signal-caller making his first start, you knew it would be one-sided. And it was. The Texans scored twice in the first quarter and never looked back en route to a 41-21 drumming.

Since getting pounded by the Vikings, they're averaging 29.33 points per game, which would rank fifth in the NFL, three offensive touchdowns, which would tie them for seventh, and 409.33 yards, which would rank fourth. They're riding high on an impressive three-game winning streak.

As we alluded to above, they travel to Green Bay this week for a potential shootout with a 47.5 over/under. It'll be another tough test, but likely one they can handle.

The obvious: Joe Mixon returned from his multi-week injury and destroyed the Patriots. In the two contests he's finished, he's totaled 310 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Without Nico Collins, Tank Dell hit a season-high 29.0% target share and found the end zone for the first time this season. It provided a much-needed sigh of relief for his fantasy managers. Similarly, Stefon Diggs continues to command targets at a high level.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - C.J. Stroud has run a bit hot and cold this season, which is bound to happen as a pocket passer who rarely runs the ball. However, there is a trend of performing better against bad defenses dating back to last season. He's still capable of delivering this week in what should be a back-and-forth affair, but there's some risk of a letdown here.

Player No. 2 - Collins' injury also benefited Dalton Schultz, who moved up the pecking order, earning a season-high eight targets. He only hauled in half of those for 27 yards, but it puts him on the radar as a streamer.

Offense No. 5 - New England Patriots

We thought it'd be fun to take a shot here on more of a high-variance offense. We're not predicting the Patriots to finish first on the week, but they step into a near-perfect setup in Week 7 against a porous Jacksonville defense allowing 29.7 points per game, 390 yards per game, and 3.5 touchdowns per game. Those numbers all rank 31st, better than only Carolina.

The one downfall is that they have to travel to London, which hasn't always worked out, but we believe will this week.

Listing their season-long statistics is deceiving because of the switch at quarterback. However, even in a loss to Houston, they scored 21 points, found the end zone three times, and generated 291 yards of offense. Both the points and touchdowns were their best this year. Things are trending upward for this team in the long term with reason for optimism.

The obvious: None.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - There is no must-start player for fantasy on this squad, although whoever gets the nod at tailback will wind up in most lineups. Last week, it was Antonio Gibson. He struggled on the ground but caught three passes for 24 yards. It's shaping up to be him again this week with Rhamondre Stevenson yet to practice.

UPDATE: Stevenson returned to practice on Friday and is pushing to play, but we'll know more this weekend.

Player No. 2 - Drake Maye had his fair share of mistakes on Sunday but looked infinitely better than Jacoby Brissett. He tossed touchdowns to Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, and Demario Douglas while racking up 243 passing yards. What's most intriguing is the five carries for 38 yards on the ground. Based on the matchup and his rushing pedigree, he's got a shot to crack the top 12 again. He did get an MRI after practice Wednesday, so we'll keep an eye out for updates on that.

UPDATE: Maye practiced on Thursday and Friday and seems ready to roll.

Player No. 3 - Speaking of Douglas, he led the way with six receptions for 92 yards and that score. We saw him pop up (no pun intended) from time to time last year with some usable performances for fantasy. He's a sneaky flex option that could compete for top 24 numbers.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 7. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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