High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 13 Lineups Including Baker Mayfield, Curtis Samuel, Justice Hill, Matthew Stafford, Rachaad White, More

November 28, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 13 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Baker Mayfield, Curtis Samuel, Justice Hill, Matthew Stafford, Rachaad White, and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 13.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that we are smack dab in the middle of two six-team bye weeks, but there are none this week. It gives us the full allotment of teams to select.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 12 started with the first snow game of the year. The weather in the second half was vintage winter football. It was fun to see, especially for the Browns, who upset the Steelers, 24-19. That may have been the only weather game in Week 12, but it was not the only entertaining contest.

Multiple matchups had thrilling finishes with last-minute lead changes and wild plays. We also saw our sixth overtime of the season between the Bears and the Vikings. Not to mention the league-leading 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs almost lose to the Carolina Panthers. The offensive output was more widespread in Week 12.

Only three signal-callers threw for 300 yards and two tossed at least three touchdowns, including Tua Tagovailoa, who had four. Similarly, just four tailbacks went over 100 yards rushing and four rushed for multiple scores. Eight teams scored 30 points but three were under 10. It was feast or famine.

• Houston Texans - 27 points scored (tied for 11th)
• Washington Commanders - 26 points scored (14th)
• Detroit Lions - 24 points scored (15th)
• Los Angeles Chargers - 23 points scored (17th)
• Arizona Cardinals - 6 points scored (tied for 25th)

Some unexpected teams led the way in Week 12. The top 10 included squads like the Titans, Bears, Panthers, and Cowboys. It was a strange week in that sense. We maintained our consistency for the most part, with the Lions, Texans, Chargers, and Commanders scoring at least 23 points. Unfortunately, we missed badly on the Cardinals and failed to nail a top-10 squad. It was not our best outing, but we won't let that get us down.

After two straight weeks with just one special team or defense touchdown, there were five in Week 12, including the Texans, our top selection. Although, none of our other picks had any. Let's get set for Week 13, which includes three Thanksgiving games on Thursday and a Friday game, with five new offenses.

Week 13 Offenses to Target

• • Buffalo Bills
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Los Angeles Rams

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

As expected, the road teams gained some ground in Week 12. The Titans, Cowboys, Vikings, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles all traveled to their opponent's stadium and scored 30 points. Meanwhile, only the Packers and Dolphins hit that mark as the host squad. There were multiple upsets and unusual performances in Week 12.

Heading into Week 13, of the top-10 scoring offenses, eight are at home and two are on the road. This means the odds of the home teams widening the gap after this week are high.

It was another rich-get-richer week with the number of points scored in the "above average" category for all three metrics increasing. In contrast, half the "average" and "below average" categories went up and half went down. Targeting offenses at the top of each metric remains a wise strategy.

Lastly, the gap between the "above average" and "below average" categories in plays per game is over a point for the first time since Week 8. Running more plays is making a comeback.

Week 13 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Buffalo Bills

Buffalo celebrated ending the Chiefs' unbeaten streak the last time we saw it. The Bills return from their bye week with a chance to keep the pressure on Kansas City for the No. 1 seed. Despite having two losses, they own the tiebreaker because of that head-to-head win.

Their offense hasn't been as flashy as in years past, but their numbers are legit. They sit third in points per game with 29.09, third in offensive touchdowns with 3.27, 13th in yards with 345.27, and 26th in plays with 60.18. They're just below the yards threshold and well over the touchdowns threshold. Their plays per game are lower because they run the ball so well and often have a lead.

Next up for them is a home matchup against the 49ers. Hosting San Francisco used to be scary, but it isn't the same team this year. The 49ers are good enough to force Buffalo to stay aggressive but not slow down its offense. Hopefully, Brock Purdy will be active to make this one more competitive.

The obvious: Josh Allen's heroics were fully displayed against the Chiefs. He continues to dominate. Allen's top weapon is Khalil Shakir, who offers a solid floor with volume but also generates plenty of yards after the catch. He's currently third among all wideouts with 481 yards in that statistic.

James Cook can be difficult to figure out. He's a strong pass-catcher, but sometimes they turn to Ty Johnson. He's been effective around the goal line, but Allen and Ray Davis sometimes vulture touchdowns. And he's had both good and bad games against better and worse defenses. Your best bet is to trot him out there and hope he excels in one of those facets.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Amari Cooper had a bye week to get healthy. He is not on the injury report, so hopefully the wrist isn't an issue. At full health, he can be the No. 2 option behind Shakir.

Player No. 2 - Curtis Samuel had his best outing in Week 11 with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid sidelined while Amari Cooper nursed a wrist injury. Coleman returned to practice, but Kincaid has not. If both are out, Samuel could be a factor again.

UPDATE: Kincaid is out and Coleman is questionable. Things are trending towards Samuel being a flex option.

Played No. 3 - Dawson Knox didn't deliver without Kincaid in Week 11, but he's a possible streamer if Kincaid is out.

UPDATE: Kincaid has been ruled out, so Knox is back on the radar.

Offense No. 2 - Baltimore Ravens

The Harbaugh brothers squared off on Monday for the third time and John's Ravens improved to 3-0. The Chargers built a 10-0 early, but that's been a theme against Baltimore, who takes a quarter or two to get rolling. It quickly found its stride en route to a 30-23 win. At its best, it is one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. However, we don't see that happen consistently.

Inconsistency aside, the Ravens have scored 30.33 points per game (second), 3.67 offensive touchdowns (second), and 426.67 offensive yards (first) on 61.25 plays per week. It's a potent offense that only the Steelers have solved this season.

Week 13 pairs them against the Eagles, a juggernaut in their right, in a heavyweight bout. Both teams have elite dual-threat quarterbacks, superstar running backs, and commanding offensive lines. Philly's defense has vastly improved from last year, but slowing down this offense is nearly impossible. Not to mention the 51-point over/under is the highest of the week.

The obvious: Lamar Jackson is on the short list for MVP. He's been excellent. Derrick Henry had another superb performance on the ground, doing everything except score, which he technically did but it was called back.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Mark Andrews has found the end zone in five of his last seven contests. In the two he didn't, he had stat lines of 2/26 and 2/22, so it's ugly when he doesn't score, but he's among the top 12 because of his talent and the offense he's a part of.

Player No. 2 - Zay Flowers went from being the focal point of the passing attack for four out of five weeks to being one of several options. Over the past three weeks, players like Rashod Bateman, Andrews, and Tylan Wallace have made big plays, reducing the need to rely on Flowers. Without any bye weeks, he's right around that top-24 range.

Player No. 3 - Justice Hill is known for his receiving ability, but he broke off a long 51-yard touchdown run on Monday. It was late in the game with a two-score lead, so that's not something you can depend on, but as a flex option, he offers multiple ways to pay off.

Offense No. 3 - Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia extended its winning streak to seven by knocking off the Rams on Sunday. The Eagles have been playing their best football down the stretch with a chance to earn the No. 1 seed if the Lions falter. They seem poised for a deep playoff run with all the necessary pieces in place. It's easy to forget the core of this group was in the Super Bowl two years ago in a heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs.

Even with a slow start, they rank seven in points per game at 26.91, sixth in offensive touchdowns at 3.18, third in offensive yards at 389.09, and first in plays per game at 66.09. They're firing on all cylinders.

They are, of course, the other half of the matchup with the Ravens. It's a great spot to find fantasy value because their offense is concentrated on their key players.

The obvious: Jalen Hurts was carefree behind center. He only threw the ball 22 times because Saquon Barkley stole the show with the ninth-most rushing yards in a game at 255. He also added 47 through the air. It was one for the record books. A.J. Brown had his way against the Rams, finding holes in coverage and making big plays.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Dallas Goedert has historically excelled when DeVonta Smith is out. Unfortunately, Barkley's historic day negated the need to pass. Goedert finished with four receptions for 19 yards and should do better if Smith, who has yet to practice, misses again.

UPDATE: Smith returned to practice Thursday and Friday, but earned a questionable tag. Goedert is looking like a decent streamer.

Offense No. 4 - Los Angeles Rams

As discussed above, the Rams were on the wrong side of a statement win on Sunday Night Football. They came out hot with two great drives, including one thwarted by a red-zone fumble, but then the Philly defense took over. It finished with 11 QB hits and five sacks, pressuring Matthew Stafford all game. The offensive line has been an issue at times, especially against ferocious fronts like the Eagles.

Despite a plethora of offensive injuries in 2024, they're still averaging 21.18 points per game (20th), 2.18 offensive touchdowns (tied for 17th), 331.82 offensive yards (17th), and 61.73 plays per game (19th). They've also been much better since both their wideouts returned.

Fortunately, they'll face the Saints in Week 12, who rank 26th in PFF's pass-rush grade. They're also second to last in yards allowed per game at 390.8. It's a great spot for Los Angeles to get back on track as it competes for a division crown.

The obvious: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Cooper Kupp are weekly must-starts regardless of the matchup. However, this one is extra juicy, especially for Williams, who found the end zone on Sunday. The passing attack has flourished with Nacua and Kupp back, which has affected the targets for Williams, who has one or fewer receptions in five of his last seven outings.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Leading the way is Matthew Stafford, who has seen an uptick in passing touchdowns with 12 in his last five contests, including four twice. He's a strong streamer this week.

Offense No. 5 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The bye week came just in time for the Buccaneers, who were dealing with injuries and struggling to keep their playoff hopes alive. They came out hot against the Giants, suffocating them defensively and scoring at will on offense. Four different players had a rushing touchdown en route to an effortless 30-7 victory. With a soft upcoming schedule, they're right in the thick of it.

As another franchise battling injuries, they've maintained a high-flying offense, scoring 28.09 points per game (fourth), 3.27 offensive TDs (tied for third), and 369.55 yards (seventh) on 62.09 plays per week (14th). They looked unstoppable for several weeks earlier in the year before losing Chris Godwin. However, they've found a new formula by leaning on their tight ends and backfield.

Their wonderful schedule continues with a trip to Charlotte against the Panthers. Carolina deserves some credit for pushing the Chiefs to the limit last week, but its defense is still beatable.

The obvious: Bucky Irving out-snapped Rachaad White against the Giants for the first time all year. He also ran nine more routes. He's taken over the starting job, moving him up the ranks inside the top 15. Mike Evans didn't have a huge day in the box score, but he looked healthy and made some nice grabs, proving you can start him with confidence.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Even on a day when every score came on the ground, Baker Mayfield got in on the action and performed for fantasy with a rushing touchdown. He's a great start against the Panthers.

Player No. 2 - While Rachaad White's role is decreasing, he's still involved enough to be a decent flex option. His specialty is in the passing attack, but he'll get eight to 10 carries with an opportunity to find the end zone.

Player No. 3 - We knew Evans returning could impact Cade Otton. His target share per game without Evans is 28.3% compared to 15.9% when he's on the field. It wouldn't be as concerning if they were likely to get into a shootout or face a tough run defense, but unfortunately, that's not the case in Week 13. He drops into the streaming category.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 13. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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