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The regular season PGA prince has been kissed by the NFL and now we get the fall frog trying to flex its slimy muscles at Silverado Resort and Spa this week. But, if you are reading this, thank you! Your support during the fall swing is very much appreciated as this time of the year eyeballs are certainly and understandably diverted from pros playing off tight lies to pros playing in tights exposing coaching lies (I and other Puka owners are looking at you Sean McVay!)
But, if you can't beat them, join them! So, keep an eye out for the seasonally sexier sister of this article, "Breaking Tackle$" that will be make its debut later this week with data driven decisions on NFL props for the upcoming NFL games in Week 2 and beyond!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $10
We are riding two chalk donkeys into town this week, with Sahith Theegala and Wyndham Clark the two shortest bets on the betting board. Let's dive into why we like them both along with Bud Cauley at 275-1.
Sahith Theegala $5.06 +1200
The defending champ of the Fortinet gets the opportunity to defend his only win on the PGA tour this week. He will be followed hordes of "Theegalans" as he has one of the biggest travelling fan bases on the circuit. That fan club will need bouncers this week as he tees it up in his home state of California once again. Sahith has typically played very well here regardless of his form, with a stretch of first, sixth, 47th and 14th dating back to 2020 before he even graduated to the PGA Tour in 2022. Very sentimental is a "Safeway" (what this event was called in 2021 three names ago) to describe what I would imagine his feelings are towards this event.
He has consistently excelled in all areas of his game at this golf course, losing no less than a stroke in any of the four key statistics over the four years he has showed up to Silverado R&S. The lone outlier was an abysmal putting week in 2022 where he lost over four strokes to the field in his T47. But this week he shows up with a driver that has gained him half a stroke off the tee (25ht in the world) and iron play that is gaining him the most strokes of his career this year. The putter has been sporadic, justified by his mean - median difference in strokes gained being 18th biggest in this field. What this means, pun intended, is that his bad rounds are very bad (relative to his skill level), while his good rounds are very good.
Not to mention that four of his 30 best rounds gaining strokes putting have come at Silverado Resort and Spa. That is two more than the other pairs of high-end putting rounds he has at Torrey Pines (South), TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, Muirfield Village and Detroit GC. To dive deeper into this wonderous worm hole, Theegala has two of his 10 best putting rounds at this venue, with all other 8 courses unique. The chances he lands up putting well here, are good. He has averaged a stroke per round here in 16 tries which is second to only TPC Scottsdale (+1.19 in 8 rounds) on his all time putting list. With his ball striking better than ever and his putter prowling these Poa surfaces, Theegala is ready to defend his California Crown!
Wyndham Clark $4.67 +1300 (+1600 Boost at Bet365)
Wyndham Clark is the drug we can't seem to kick. This is also the shortest we have ever bet the Coloradan, who seems to have found his form of late. We don't necessarily know what course suits Clark's power and putting prowess, but we do know he has gained roughly 8+ total strokes in his last five starts, with a sixth start gaining 7 strokes on the field. Small fields at the Olympics, BMW Championship and Tour Championship are the reason we are using strokes gained metrics instead of finishes, which have been 8th, T13, T7, T14, MC, T10 and T9 dating back to the Travelers Championship.
He has won three times on the PGA Tour and is ranked No. 6 in the world playing against a large majority of golfers who are ranked outside the top-50 on the FedEx Cup points list. His relatively elite skill level and ability to make massive amounts of putts when his flatstick heats up are the two main reasons we fancy him to win his fourth tournament in sixteen months.
Bud Cauley $0.27 +27500
Bud Cauley is a bit of a maniac play as his form has been disgusting of late, but his history at this venue is anything but. In his eight appearances at this event, he has never missed a cut and has finished T7 (2018) and T14 (2021) in his more recent starts. He is finally healthy, although his game does not seem to reflect that, but at a course he has found success at in the past, this is low amount of risk for a high reward, which would be awesome to see from Bud.
Placings ($85)
We are going low volume, high probability this week with all three of our placement bets in the 60% implied probability range. However, our numbers suggest they should be well into the 70% range with edges of 9% or better for all three bets.
Placement finish rates and how they stack up to Vegas' implied odds.
Mac Meissner T20 $9.88 +190
Below is Mac's betting track record and respective odds for all the different markets this season. He has been most profitable in the top-20 market, which is where we are going to be betting him this week.
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Wyndham Clark T10 $14.59 +140
Corey Conners T20 $22.51 -120
Maverick McNealy T20 $18.77 +100
Keith Mitchell T20 $11.04 +170
Mackenzie Hughes T20 $9.39 +200
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Full fields means 3-ball parlays baby! +3481 for the full 4-legger, while we are also betting $1 on each of the other four 3-leg combos. I fancy our chances on this one!
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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