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Free PGA Betting Picks - Breaking $100 Golf Best Bets for the 2024 Procore Championship

The regular season PGA prince has been kissed by the NFL and now we get the fall frog trying to flex its slimy muscles at Silverado Resort and Spa this week. But, if you are reading this, thank you! Your support during the fall swing is very much appreciated as this time of the year eyeballs are certainly and understandably diverted from pros playing off tight lies to pros playing in tights exposing coaching lies (I and other Puka owners are looking at you Sean McVay!)

But, if you can't beat them, join them! So, keep an eye out for the seasonally sexier sister of this article, "Breaking Tackle$" that will be make its debut later this week with data driven decisions on NFL props for the upcoming NFL games in Week 2 and beyond!

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Outrights $10

We are riding two chalk donkeys into town this week, with Sahith Theegala and Wyndham Clark the two shortest bets on the betting board. Let's dive into why we like them both along with Bud Cauley at 275-1.

Sahith Theegala $5.06 +1200 

The defending champ of the Fortinet gets the opportunity to defend his only win on the PGA tour this week. He will be followed hordes of "Theegalans" as he has one of the biggest travelling fan bases on the circuit. That fan club will need bouncers this week as he tees it up in his home state of California once again. Sahith has typically played very well here regardless of his form, with a stretch of first, sixth, 47th and 14th dating back to 2020 before he even graduated to the PGA Tour in 2022. Very sentimental is a "Safeway" (what this event was called in 2021 three names ago) to describe what I would imagine his feelings are towards this event.

He has consistently excelled in all areas of his game at this golf course, losing no less than a stroke in any of the four key statistics over the four years he has showed up to Silverado R&S. The lone outlier was an abysmal putting week in 2022 where he lost over four strokes to the field in his T47. But this week he shows up with a driver that has gained him half a stroke off the tee (25ht in the world) and iron play that is gaining him the most strokes of his career this year. The putter has been sporadic, justified by his mean - median difference in strokes gained being 18th biggest in this field. What this means, pun intended, is that his bad rounds are very bad (relative to his skill level), while his good rounds are very good.

Not to mention that four of his 30 best rounds gaining strokes putting have come at Silverado Resort and Spa. That is two more than the other pairs of high-end putting rounds he has at Torrey Pines (South), TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, Muirfield Village and Detroit GC. To dive deeper into this wonderous worm hole, Theegala has two of his 10 best putting rounds at this venue, with all other 8 courses unique. The chances he lands up putting well here, are good. He has averaged a stroke per round here in 16 tries which is second to only TPC Scottsdale (+1.19 in 8 rounds) on his all time putting list. With his ball striking better than ever and his putter prowling these Poa surfaces, Theegala is ready to defend his California Crown!

Wyndham Clark $4.67 +1300 (+1600 Boost at Bet365)

Wyndham Clark is the drug we can't seem to kick. This is also the shortest we have ever bet the Coloradan, who seems to have found his form of late. We don't necessarily know what course suits Clark's power and putting prowess, but we do know he has gained roughly 8+ total strokes in his last five starts, with a sixth start gaining 7 strokes on the field. Small fields at the Olympics, BMW Championship and Tour Championship are the reason we are using strokes gained metrics instead of finishes, which have been 8th, T13, T7, T14, MC, T10 and T9 dating back to the Travelers Championship.

He has won three times on the PGA Tour and is ranked No. 6 in the world playing against a large majority of golfers who are ranked outside the top-50 on the FedEx Cup points list. His relatively elite skill level and ability to make massive amounts of putts when his flatstick heats up are the two main reasons we fancy him to win his fourth tournament in sixteen months.

Bud Cauley $0.27 +27500

Bud Cauley is a bit of a maniac play as his form has been disgusting of late, but his history at this venue is anything but. In his eight appearances at this event, he has never missed a cut and has finished T7 (2018) and T14 (2021) in his more recent starts. He is finally healthy, although his game does not seem to reflect that, but at a course he has found success at in the past, this is low amount of risk for a high reward, which would be awesome to see from Bud.

 

Placings ($85)

We are going low volume, high probability this week with all three of our placement bets in the 60% implied probability range. However, our numbers suggest they should be well into the 70% range with edges of 9% or better for all three bets.

Placement finish rates and how they stack up to Vegas' implied odds.

Mac Meissner T20 $9.88 +190

Below is Mac's betting track record and respective odds for all the different markets this season. He has been most profitable in the top-20 market, which is where we are going to be betting him this week.

You can find this data for all golfers in the field in my premium model right >>>HERE<<<. We have an awesome deal right now that includes all PGA Premium packages for the remainder of 2024, for $75. If you in the mood to see what it looks like behind the RotoBaller PGA curtain before next season, this is the time to jump in using code "MANIAC". If you are not interested in spending money but want the model for this week, retweet this article's pinned post on my X account @TheModelManiac and I will DM the model to you!

Wyndham Clark T10 $14.59 +140 

Corey Conners T20 $22.51 -120 

Maverick McNealy T20 $18.77 +100 

Keith Mitchell T20 $11.04 +170 

Mackenzie Hughes T20 $9.39 +200 

 

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Full fields means 3-ball parlays baby! +3481 for the full 4-legger, while we are also betting $1 on each of the other four 3-leg combos. I fancy our chances on this one!

Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

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Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
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One to Watch Going into Training Camp
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Appears Re-Energized
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Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
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Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
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2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

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EDM

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Derrick Lewis

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Gabriel Bonfim

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Steve Garcia

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Tuco Tokkos

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Junior Tafa

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Jalen Williams

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Alijah Martin

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Tristan Vukcevic

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Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

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Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

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Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

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Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
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Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
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Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

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Jake Knapp

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Ty Gibbs

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Alex Bowman

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Alex Bowman

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Michael McDowell

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Austin Hill

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Tyler Reddick

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Kyle Busch

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Denny Hamlin

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William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
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