RADIO
We have entered the last week of the NBA regular season and I’m going to cherish this week. As a basketball guy, the NBA is the sport I look forward to the most and my favorite sport to bet on. The last few weeks have been kind of wacky with some teams going full tank while others are pushing toward the playoffs. This has created a lot of massive lines in the market with a flux of games having double-digit plus spreads. In my last article, we were able to go 2-0 after the Celtics dismantled the Bucks and the Pelicans won outright against the Nuggets. Official straight-up picks move to 8-5 and the Bucks/Pelicans teaser also hit at +137.
There were no NBA games yesterday which leaves us with 13 today. I’ll be avoiding the games with massive spreads as it’s unpredictable what to expect from them. Thankfully, there are games with smaller spreads to focus on and better contextualize. While teams are shutting it down, there is still a lot to figure out playoff seeding-wise in both conferences. Soak it all in, only six more days of NBA regular season basketball.
In this article, I’ll have my favorite picks against the spread and a money line parlay for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, April 4th. Follow me on Twitter @Jwiesel13. I love to interact with the community and talk about all things betting.
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Josh's NBA Betting Picks Record
ATS: 8-5
ML Parlay: 3-1
Teasers: 1-0
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Orlando Magic (+4.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (221.5 total)
Magic:
Led by rookie of the year frontrunner Paolo Banchero, the Orlando Magic have been a surprisingly fun team this season. Their most recent win against the Detroit Pistons is a nice example of who they've been this season. They went into that game as 11.5-point favorites which felt high. Taking care of business, Orlando would win 128-102 and easily cover. This a squad that has won 34 games and if they can get to 35, it would be tied for franchises second-best season in 11 years.
It's been the defensive side of the ball that has helped the Magic win six of their last 10 games. In that span, they are third in the NBA in defensive rating. Opponents are scoring the tenth fewest points per game while shooting the third-lowest field goal percentage and ninth-lowest three-point percentage.
Their offense has been better lately, placing 17th in the league in scoring over their last ten games. This is an improvement from the 26th they sit on the full season. Of course, it could point towards a slight regression, but I feel the Magic are a team that's only getting better. They have been great at rebounding the ball and blocking shots all season.
Orlando has been one of the more aggressive teams all season, ranking in the top seven for free throws per game. Free points at the line could come up big if this game turns into a low-scoring affair.
They typically have balanced scoring which was on display in their win over the Pistons.
Cavs:
It's been the Donovan Mitchell heater the last three games with him scoring 40+ in all three. Unfortunately for Cleveland, they are 1-2 in their last three. Similar to Orlando, Cleveland has been scoring more in their last ten games compared to the total season. They are around the same field goal and three-point percentage so it's not like the Cavaliers have been overly hot.
There has also been a bit of a slip in defense recently. Normally first in defensive rating, they are ninth in the NBA in their last ten games. Jarrett Allen has missed six of the last ten so that's an easy way to dismiss it. In their last game, Allen played 26 minutes and they held the Indiana Pacers to 105 points. With JA missing time, Cleveland is last in the NBA in defensive rebounds per game over the last ten. It is unknown if Allen will be suited up for this game. The Cavs are three ahead of the Knicks for the fourth seed and 2.5 behind Philadelphia for the third seed.
Prediction:
As solid as the Cavs have been, this feels like a tough road matchup for them. Cleveland has beaten them by double digits in both games this season but they haven't played since December 2nd. Orlando has bodies to throw at Mitchell and show off that top-five defense as of late. Cleveland is 17-21-1 ATS on the road according to Action Network.
The Magic are 22-17 ATS at home this season per Action Network. Digging a little deeper, Orlando has covered nine straight games. Cleveland is 0-5 in their last five games at Orlando. The Magic are also 17-10 ATS as a home underdog which is the best in the NBA. I think they can keep this game close and continue their hot stretch of covering.
The pick: Orlando Magic +4.5 (-108 FD)
Brooklyn Nets (-1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (227.5 Total)
Nets:
The Brooklyn Nets come into this game on a three-game win streak. Winners of three straight, Brooklyn lost six of seven games before this recent run. This is to say, it's a little hard to tell what you're getting from the Nets on a nightly basis. Throughout these three games, they are 11th in points per game, seven in field goal percentage, tied for ninth in three-pointers per game, and fifth in three-point percentage. It's been an impressive offensive display while also being tenth in defensive rating during their streak.
To always keep things fair, it's important to note the Net's shooting stats over their last ten games. They are 4-6 in their last ten games. Regarding points per game and field goal percentage, they are 25th. From deep, they rank 17th in three-point percentage. As good as they've been in their last three games, the numbers would suggest regression is likely.
The Nets have also been in at least the bottom six of the NBA in points off turnovers, second-chance points, fastbreak points, and points in the paint over their win streak. It is hard to win games relying on hot shooting while also important categories are towards the bottom of the league.
Timberwolves:
Minnesota enters this game off a historic loss. The Timberwolves were 19.5-point favorites at home against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday and lost 107-105. It was the worst against the spread lost since 1995. It was an inexcusable loss for a T-wolves team that has lost three straight after winning four straight.
During their three-game losing streak, they are 27th in scoring and field goal percentage and 15th in three-point percentage. If we zoom out and look at their last 12 games, it paints a different picture. Over their last 12, Minnesota is tied for 11th in scoring, 14th in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. It should be noted that Anthony Edwards and others on the Timberwolves' roster have been ill and playing through sickness. Hopefully, they are feeling better because this critical game can get them to 40-40 on the season.
Prediction:
The Timberwolves were playing really good ball before their three-game skid and I like what I was seeing from them. Rudy Gobert has looked reinvigorated with Mike Conley running the show, Conley has been that steady point guard this team needed. Karl Anthony Towns has also had 20+ points in three of his five games back. As always, Anthony Edwards can take over any game and I like the Wolves as a team better than Brooklyn.
Minnesota gets back on track after the biggest loss we've seen in 27 years.
The pick- Minnesota Timberwolves +1 (-112 FD)
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Chicago Bulls (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Hawks (234.5 total)
This is a critical matchup between two teams fighting for play-in positioning in the Eastern Conference.
Hawks:
What we've come to expect from the Atlanta Hawks is a lot of offense with not a lot of defense. Continuing to look at a ten-game frame as I find recent play important, the Hawks are second in points per game and 27th in defensive rating. What has been impressive about Atlantas' scoring is they are putting up over 123 points per game but only sit 26th in three-pointers made per game. It's not like they are shooting well from deep either, ranking 24th in three-point percentage. An area they found a groove in is points in the paint. Over their last ten games, the Hawks are second in the league in points in the paint per game.
Atlanta ranks 28th in catch-and-shoot field goal and three-point percentage over their last ten games. They've still managed to go 5-5 over this stretch and I'd consider it a little bit of a statistical anomaly.
The Hawks picked up a huge overtime win over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Playing to their strengths, they took 13 more field goals than Dallas. Atlanta likes to get shots up and play fast.
Bulls:
On the other side, Chicago has been one of the slowest teams in the NBA recently. The Bulls are coming off a great month of March that saw them go 9-6. It was solid all around as they ranked tenth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Their defense has again been solid in their last ten games and opponents are scoring the second-fewest points in the paint against them. That'll make for an interesting matchup with the Hawks scoring a lot of points in the paint. Fastbreak defense hasn't been great but Atlanta doesn't score as many on the break as you'd think with their pace.
What Chicago has continuously done all season is have a great field goal percentage. They also rank in the top ten in three-point percentage. Zach LaVine had a big March, averaging 28.4 points with a 53/43.6/87.1 shooting split. His big scoring continued on Sunday when he scored 36 and had a season-high nine assists to beat the Grizzlies. Center Nikola Vucevic has also been playing well, averaging 17 points and ten rebounds. The ever-steady DeMar DeRozan held 24-5-5 averages in March. He continued his strong play with a 31-point, five rebounds, and seven-assist performance against the Grizzlies.
Prediction:
Chicago is playing better ball right now and I like them to win at home. They were down by 23 to the Grizzlies but fought back and won by 20+. The Bulls should have nice confidence and are 21-18 at home this season. Two of the three games these teams have played came down to the final seconds.
I know it's a lot of juice but I think it's worth it here.
The pick: Chicago Bulls ML (-164 FD)
Favorite ML Parlay: MIA + CHI + LAL (+139 FD)
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