RADIO
April 9th, 2023. If you were wondering why that date is significant, it's the last time we had a full slate of NBA games to dissect. It's been 197 days since the end of the 2022–23' NBA regular season and a lot has happened. Let me catch you up to speed quickly.
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets won the NBA title. Damian Lillard is now a Milwaukee Buck. As Bradley Beal finally departed from Washington after 11 seasons, Jordan Poole landed on the tarmac for a new beginning in the capital city. Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons, and Kyrie Irving all seem to like basketball again (watch this space). James Harden wants to be traded (what's new?). Doc Rivers is now in the booth and not on the sidelines. We've seen some glimpses of an alien in a San Antonio Spurs jersey. He formerly goes by the name Victor Wembanyama. The Boston Celtics picked up two new players you might've heard of. Oh, and Chris Paul now plays in the Bay (weird, I know).
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, October 25. I'll be giving a little preview for each team, and you can find my pick at the end of each section. It's good to be back!
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Boston Celtics (-3.5) @ New York Knicks (225.5 total)
I'm starting my season of picks off with one that may not be considered 'fun' but something I won't pass on.
Celtics:
I think the Boston Celtics will be awesome this season. New additions Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis join Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White to form what could be the best starting five in the NBA. The five have looked really good on the court together in preseason. In their last preseason game against the Charlotte Hornets, all five starters scored in double figures playing minutes in the low 20's. Boston comes into this season after losing Game 7 at home to the Miami Heat. The loss ended their quest to be the first team to come back from 3-0 down in an NBA playoff series.
Knicks:
On the other side, you have the New York Knicks. New York also had their season cut short by the Miami Heat, losing in six games in the second round of the playoffs. They return pretty much the same team as last season, with Donte DiVincenzo being a new addition and Obi Toppin being a key departure.
Game total:
My pick in this game has nothing to do with the spread; I'm targeting the total and rooting for some misses. Boston's new starting group has looked good in the preseason, but let's see how they fare offensively in the first game that counts. They are going to have to learn how to all incorporate each other, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it get off to a bit of a slow start.
This is also a testament to the Celtics defense, which once again should be among the league's best units. They are ferocious on the perimeter, and I'm expecting them to be at least in the top six in the fewest opponent threes per game and lowest three-point percentage. We will have to see how they protect the paint without Robert Williams.
The Knicks had a good regular-season offense last season. They were tied for third in offensive rating and 11th in points per game. In the playoffs, things fell apart, and New York averaged 100.1 points on a gross 29.2 percent shooting from deep in 11 games. Though I don't think it will get that bleak again (for my sanity as a Knicks fan, I hope not), I can see the Knicks struggling on offense in the opener. They were 20th in field goal percentage and 19th in three-point percentage last season.
Both of these teams also played at slow paces last season. New York was 26th, and Boston was 20th. When it came to opponent fastbreak points per game, the Knicks tied in fifth limiting opponents, while the Celtics tied in ninth.
At first glance, the over in this game at 223.5 looks very appealing. Last season, these teams did hit the over in three of four games (fact check). According to teamrankings, the Knicks were 43-37-2 (53.8%) to the over, and the Celtics were 42-38-2 (52.5%).
Both of these teams can score, but I just love the under for all the reasons listed above.
The Pick: Under 225.5 (-110 FanDuel)
Los Angeles Clippers (-9) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (227.5 total)
Clippers:
It's pretty much the same old same old with the Los Angeles Clippers entering the new season. As always, it will center around the health of stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Kawhi was fantastic in the first two games of their first-round playoff series against the Phoenix Suns. He would miss the rest of the series and watch his team lose in six games. Paul George played his last game of the season on March 21.
The absence of those two really allowed Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell to flourish. Those two return, along with the apparently untouchable Terance Mann and the always-solid Ivica Zubac. Bones Hyland (23) and Kenyon Martin Jr. (22) are intriguing young talents. Rounding out the rotation are the old reliables in Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum, Mason Plumlee, and whatever Marcus Morris can provide. This team is deep on paper.
Blazers:
Say hello to new beginnings. After 11 seasons, Damian Lillard is no longer a Portland Trail Blazer. Out goes Dame, and in comes the second-overall pick in the 2023 draft, Scoot Henderson. The center position also looks different, as Deandre Ayton is now the lead man in the middle.
Explosive 20-year-old Shaedon Sharpe is a player to keep an eye on in his second season. Anfernee Simons averaged 21.1 points per game last season and is back in his starting shooting guard role. Jerami Grant signed a five-year, $160 million contract. Matisse Thybulle provides great defense. New additions Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams will try to find time on a quietly crowded team. Kris Murray, the 23rd pick in the 2023 draft, is a good prospect with an NBA-ready frame.
Over game:
It may not sound pretty trying to gameplan it out in your head, but I like the over in this game. The Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating last season. They allowed the 16th most field goals per game, were the 12th-best team in points allowed, and opponents shot the 12th-best percentage from three against them. Los Angeles ranked in the lower half in opponent fastbreak points and points in the paint. These are all areas Portland can take advantage of, and with Scoot at the helm, we could see an increase in pace with this group.
The Clippers have plenty of scorers in Kawhi, George, Westbrook, Powell, Mann, and Hyland. There are good defensive players on both of these rosters which is what makes this a weird over. You can find eight games with a lower over-under than this competition. I just like the fresh legs on both sides and the points to be scored in the night's latest tip-off.
The pick: Over 227.5 (-110 PointsBet)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Orlando Magic (-4) vs. Houston Rockets (222 total)
Both of these teams enter the 2022–23 season coming off top six worst records in the league. The Magic shook off a poor start to the season and finished 34-48, seven games above their over/under win total. Houston just stunk and was 12 games worse than Orlando at 22-60, two games under their over/under projections.
FanDuel has a little higher hopes for these two teams this season. The Orlando Magic sit at an O/U of 37.5 wins, while the Houston Rockets see their number at 31.5.
Magic:
Orlando is led by 2022–23 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and 2021–22 All-Rookie First-Teamer Franz Wagner. Both played in the 2023 FIBA World Cup for their respective countries this summer. The 22-year-old Wagner really impressed, scoring 16, 22, and 19 points in the quarter, semi, and finals to help Germany win its first-ever FIBA World Cup title. Many expect these two to take another jump in their second and third years in the league.
Markelle Fultz with a behind-the-back DIME to Paolo Banchero 👀pic.twitter.com/h6Nus921rW
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 18, 2023
Markelle Fultz is back on point guard duties, with sixth-overall pick Anthony Black waiting behind. We're entering year three of hoping guard Jalen Suggs can consistently stay on the court. The same goes for starting center Wendell Carter Jr., who has never played more than 62 games in a season. Joe Ingles is also there and should provide good veteran leadership and solid play for this young Magic team.
Rockets:
The Houston Rockets will look a little different this season. They signed Fred VanVleet to a big contract and followed that by poaching now-former disgruntled Memphis Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks. Reggie Bullock and Jeff Green were also solid additions to the squad.
Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, fourth overall pick Amen Thompson, and 20th pick Cam Whitmore are all under 21 years old. The young talent is eye-popping with this team.
Even players like Aaron Holiday and Jae'Sean Tate can come off the bench and give quality minutes. Ime Udoka (remember him?) is the 16th coach in Houston Rockets franchise history.
Backing the Rockets:
This may be one I regret by Wednesday night, but I like the Rockets with the points. You can think of the preseason however you want, but I found it notable that Houston went 4-1. Even for preseason, winning some games can build confidence for those younger guys who have lost a lot of games early in their careers.
Orlando was tied for 27th in most opponent three-pointers made per game last season. Houston was worse, allowing the most, but the Magic will probably be a bottom-ten three-point shooting team again. I think Houston will shoot it decently well from three this season, which should work in favor of this game.
Another area to watch is points in the paint. Houston scored 50+ points in the paint in four of five preseason games. They have good size and length and very quietly finished fourth in rebounds per game last season. The Rockets also finished first in second-chance points last season; the Magic were 15th in opponent second-chance points allowed per game.
This could be a sneaky fun Rockets team, and Ime Udoka should have his guys ready to go on opening night.
The Pick: Houston Rockets +4 (-110 DraftKings)
Chicago Bulls (-1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (228 total)
Thunder:
The young Thunder start their season off in the windy city to take on the Bulls. Oklahoma City is one of the most hyped teams coming into the season, and for good reason. In 2021–22, OKC finished with a 24-58 record, getting rewarded with the second pick in the draft. Second-overall pick Chet Holmgren didn't even play last season and the Thunder improved by 16 games. With a 40-42 record, they finished 10th in the Western Conference. Going on the road, they beat the New Orleans Pelicans in the 9-10 play-in game. With a playoff spot on the line, they would get crushed by the Timberwolves in Minnesota, ending their season.
Nice OKC possession results in a Chet Holmgren corner three pic.twitter.com/iKETyR0N6u
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) October 18, 2023
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took that elite leap. He earned his first All-Star appearance, got a spot on the All-NBA First Team, and finished fifth in MVP voting. Along with SGA is combo guard Josh Giddey, do-it-all forward Jalen Williams, lockdown defender and perimeter threat Luguentz Dort, and now they add seven-foot-one center Chet Holmgren to the mix. The exciting Thunder starting five are all 25 years of age or younger.
Oklahoma City's youth doesn't stop with the starters. They added 19-year-old guard Cason Wallace with the 10th pick in the draft. Tre Mann, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, and Ousmane Dieng are all 24 years or younger.
Bulls:
The Chicago Bulls also finished with a 40-42 record last season, which was good enough for 10th in the Eastern Conference. They would go on the road and beat the Toronto Raptors before losing in Miami to the Heat, ending their playoff hopes. Not all records are built the same, and the Thunder were an encouraging 40-42, while the Bulls were a disappointing 40-42.
Chicago's key players are older, with DeMar DeRozan (34), Nikola Vucevic (32), Alex Caruso (29), Zach LaVine (28), and Jevon Carter (28) all being 28 years or older. Youth isn't nonexistent on this team; Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and Patrick Williams are all 23 or younger. It's an interesting mix of players who, once again, should just be a solid group.
Hold off on the hype:
Despite fawning over OKC, I like the Bulls in this one to start the season.
Last season, Chicago was fourth in fewest opponent points in the paint per game, second in limiting second-chance points, and seventh in both opponent points off turnovers and fastbreak points. This is an OKC team that loved to score in the paint last season, finishing third in that category. They also played with the third-highest pace compared to Chicago, who was 18th. Oklahoma City can force a lot of turnovers, but Chicago did a good job holding onto it last season, finishing eighth in the fewest turnovers per game. If the Bulls can hold onto the ball and dictate the pace, I really like them in the opener.
According to teamrankings, the Bulls were 13-9 as a home favorite last season.
The pick: Chicago Bulls ML (-118 FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: MIA + ATL + CHI (+264 FD)
Favorite Teaser: POR +15 - WAS +13 - HOU +10 (+140 FD)
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