RADIO
Wednesday was a disappointing 1-3 day for me. While the Nets won, the Timberwolves crumbled in the third quarter after leading up until that point against Atlanta. Then Jimmy Butler got himself ejected from the Miami game, which really hurt Miami's chances of going over their total there. Even our parlay was ruined by the Kings not being able to hold off the Pistons in a wild high-scoring affair in the late games.
But we are back today and I remain undeterred from picking you some more winners today. The schedule this week has given us some really small and big slates alternating every other day. It's an 11-game slate tonight and I like these big slates because we can be a little pickier and not have to force any plays. Let's see where we can make some profit tonight and what the data says about these games.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, January 21st, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 64-62
- Against the Spread 42-34
- Over/Under 19-25
- Other/Props 5-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Brooklyn Nets (-1) @ San Antonio Spurs (232 total)
The Nets came up big for me on Wednesday with a win on the road. However, they didn't make it easy as they barely held on for a win after having big leads throughout much of the game. Brooklyn is just very average right now without Kevin Durant and several other important members of their supporting cast (namely Joe Harris and Nicolas Claxton). Harden, Kyrie, and Aldridge can provide plenty of offense but the Nets really aren't stopping anyone on defense.
Those who have been reading this column this year know that the Spurs pop up a lot in my picks. They are a sneaky good team when healthy and guess what - they're all finally healthy! This is a deep team, too, and that gives them a big advantage here as I think their bench (led by Lonnie Walker IV and Devin Vassell) will be too much for Brooklyn's. Dejounte Murray might be the best player on the court tonight (you heard me Harden and Kyrie!) and having Derrick White back to score and facilitate while Murray is off the floor is huge for this San Antonio squad. Give me the home dogs!
The Pick: Spurs ML (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Miami Heat (+1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks @ (219 total)
Anytime I can get the better team as an underdog, I am interested. Yes, Miami will be without two important pieces with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro out. But they've been playing pretty much all season without 1-2 of their core players and still manage to win games. Most importantly for me it's who is in for Miami instead of who is out. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are playing tonight and that's a problem for Atlanta.
The Hawks are not a bad team, they're just horribly inconsistent and I think this is a spot where they let down at home after coming off a big win against the T-Wolves. Miami is 15-10 on the road ATS while Atlanta is only 9-12 at home ATS. The trends line up with my gut here and hopefully, that makes for a good pick. I'm backing the Heat and taking the value on their money line at +105.
The Pick: Heat ML (+105 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks Totals
Houston Rockets (+10.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ (228 total)
It's always a queasy feeling to take the under in a Houston game, but this is by far the biggest discrepancy in the model today as I have this game projected over five points lower than the current Vegas total. Houston has been hitting overs at the second-highest rate of any team in the league this season but Golden State is hitting the under also at the second-highest rate, too.
Something has to give, right?
The Warriors looked sluggish last night, falling to an Indiana team in overtime that was without four of their usual starters. It's hard to figure out Golden State lately. While the addition of Klay Thompson gives them another much-needed weapon on offense, they're still badly missing the defensive presence of Draymond Green in their lineup and they're still tinkering with their rotations on a nightly basis as Steve Kerr has like eight different guys he wants to experiment with from their second unit.
Klay will rest tonight, which dings the Warriors a bit and I think they'll be a bit fatigued after having to go into OT last night. The home team often dictates pace in NBA games and I'm hoping the Warriors slow down Houston here and try to beat them with well-executed offense and not get into a track meet with them. 228 is a big number, and I just think we are more likely to see a lower-scoring game here if Golden State jumps out in front and throttles it down. I've been ice cold on totals so I don't blame you if you sit this one out either.
The Pick: UNDER 228 (good down to 226) -110 DK Sportsbook
No teasers tonight as we have some huge favorites that you could parlay together, but you're not getting great odds. And it seems like at least one big favorite likes to lose recently, I'll stick to my other picks on this card!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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