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Yesterday we managed to go 3-1 on prop picks with Christopher Morel being our only miss. The Angels continued to be the gift that keeps on giving for K props as Joe Ryan cruised over his prop, while E-Rod needed seven innings and 100 pitches just to get five strikeouts, but he got there! And, of course, Juan Soto absolutely demolished his prop as he homered in his first at-bat and then finished with three hits on the day.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, September 25, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter/X @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Blake Snell OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)
It's Blake Snell's world, we are just living in it! Snell is making one heck of a case for the NL Cy Young down the stretch and one would think that he is motivated to keep crushing the souls of opposing hitters in his final few starts so that he leaves no doubt in the minds of the voters.
Blake Snell, Obliterating the Side in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/r8YETafQ81
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2023
This number is too low and these odds are surprisingly decent. Snell has 8 and 11 strikeouts in his two meetings with the Giants this season and 8+ strikeouts in six straight starts. The Giants' L30 strikeout numbers against lefties are sitting at 24.6% which is 11th most in baseball and any time we get up around 24% or higher, we have to consider this a "good" matchup as the average K% is right around 21-22% over the last few seasons.
Justin Verlander OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
I have not been on Verlander too often this year as his strikeout numbers have dipped this year - both while he was pitching for the Mets and now in Houston. But he has seen a nice uptick is strikeouts lately and the Mariners are definitely a team that we can target for strikeouts.
Justin Verlander, Wicked 88mph Back Foot Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/qT13cEQi6f
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 19, 2023
Verlander has been pitching deep into games lately, going 6-7 innings in four straight starts. He has 7+ strikeouts in three of his last six as well. He doesn't blow hitters away with a 98 MPH fastball anymore, but his breaking stuff is still outstanding and he still knows how to mix his pitches in such a way to set hitters up for strikeouts. Seattle's 25% K% against RHP over the last month means they are attackable and I think JV can get seven Mariners here tonight as he knows how badly his team needs this game over the M's for playoff purposes.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jon Gray OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings)
Gray is by far the riskiest of the three pitchers I like today for strikeouts. I say that because his recent form is about as bad as it's been all season. Gray has not made it through four innings in three straight starts and has just 7 strikeouts and 5 walks in those outings.
But as I have been saying now for weeks, the Angels present an incredible opportunity for any RHP right now. They continue to strike out at the highest rate of any team in baseball and their total lack of plate discipline might be just what the doctor order for Gray to get back on track.
We know that he has solid strikeout stuff, it's just a matter of throwing strikes and getting off to a good start in this one. I wish we were getting better odds here, but the books know that the Angels are such a prime target, too. Perhaps this is a trap, but I am
PARLAY: Luis Castillo and Logan Webb BOTH OVER 17.5 outs (+139 DraftKings)
Castillo and Webb are excellent starting pitchers, but both are facing some good competition today and are not optimal strikeout prop targets. I do, however, think that both are them are good enough to get through six innings. Webb has done it in 9 of his last 11 starts while Castillo has done it in 12 of his last 13 starts.
Alright, that's it today. Not many games today, but that doesn't mean we still can't make some money! Good luck and thanks for reading!
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