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I am back again today for more player props after going 1-2 in yesterday's article. That is one of the first times in a long time here writing pieces I have had a losing day. We are 3-3 so far in the week, so let's close this thing out strong and get back to our winning ways. We have two strikeout props today and, as always, my hit parlay.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, July 6, 2023, in this article. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nathan Eovaldi OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Can I offer anyone some Nathan Eovaldi revenge game in Fenway Park? In all reality, I am not one to bank one "revenge" in factoring in my bets, and I am not here either. I will say that there will defiantly be some extra motivation for Eovaldi here tonight, returning to Fenway Park to toe the rubber.
Eovaldi has a 3.71 SIERA, 24.7% K%, and an 11.8% SwStr% this season. I love this bet because the 4.5 strikeouts are too low and will gradually move to 5.5 as the day goes on. Eovaldi has five or more strikeouts in 15 of his 17 starts this season. That's an 88% hit rate. I'll take those odds.
His opponent, the Boston Red Sox, is a tough matchup, so the line is set where it is for a reason. The Red Sox own a 21.4% K% against right-hand pitching this season. Over the last month of the season, they have struck out at a 22.8% K%. Add in the extra motivation here for Eovaldi, and I love his chances of hitting his over.
Ryne Nelson OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+130 DraftKings SportsBook)
Here is my plan with Nelson as the day goes on. I believe there's a chance this line goes down to 3.5 with the amount of juice the books are laying. I will bet it now with juice and then again if it drops.
Nelson has turned it on over his last five starts. Over that period, Nelson has a 4.44 SIERA, 22.1% K%, and an 11.4% SwStr%. He has struck out five or more in four of those five starts and six or more in three of those four. I am concerned about the pitch count, but he has caught a grove heading into the all-star break.
The Mets, on the season, have a 20.7% K% against right-hand pitching. This is one of the best marks in baseball, but over the last month, it has started to decline. Since June 1, the Mets have owned a 22.8% K%, suitable for the 14th worst in baseball. The trends are there for this to hit; it's over, and the juice gives us little risk.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP Austin Hays + Ryan O'Hearn to record a hit (-105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Over the last few weeks, I provided you with some hit parlays. Honestly, it's been a blast betting and has been very profitable. I will make this a constant theme in my articles for the rest of the season. I like giving you guys different looks on how to bet instead of writing up the everyday props like always. You can always take either of the two guys below for their total bases prop to get a better line.
Luis Severino will get the ball for the Yankees against the Orioles. Severino has a .284 BAA and a 5.09 SIERA on the season. Over his last six starts, he allowed seven or more hits in four outings. He has been getting hit for a .331 BAA over that period. Severino has allowed a .270 BAA against lefties this season and a .304 BAA against righties.
Austin Hays is the best right-handed bat in this lineup against right-hand pitching. He has a .323 AVG against the split this season. Hays has a hit in ten of his last 15 games. Ryan O'Hearn is on a tear. He is hitting .316 in June against righties. O'Hearn has a hit in three straight games.
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