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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Wednesday, July 5, 2023. Use Casey Wilson's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
The day after Independence Day has to be one of the worst of the year. Waking up and going to work is dreadful on a day like today. At least we have a full baseball slate to keep us occupied throughout the day. Today I will provide you with my two favorite pitcher props on today's slate and my go-to hit parlay.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, July 5, 2023, in this article. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Justin Steele OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-134 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Justin Steele is one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League. Steele enters today's start with a 3.90 SIERA, 22.3% K%, and an 11.4% SwStr. In his last two starts, Steele has struck out eight and six hitters against the Cardinals and the Guardians. He now gets an elite matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers for strikeouts.
The Brewers lead baseball with a 27.9% K% against left-hand pitching. They own an 81 wRC+, a .293 wOBA, and a .353 SLG. I have attacked the Brewers all season long in DFS, prop betting, and game line betting all when they face a lefty, and it's not going to stop today. Steele is in an incredible spot, and I love his chances of hitting his over in strikeouts and recording a win.
Brayan Bello OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-126 FanDuel SportsBook)
Brayan Bello has become quite the story this season. He enters today's start with a 3.96 SIERA, 21.8% K%, and an 11.2% SwStr. He has turned it on as of late. Over his last there starts, he has a 3.70 SIERA, 22.8% K%, and a 12.5% SwStr. Bello has struck out five or more in ten of his thirteen starts this season.
Bello gets a tough matchup tonight against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are right in the middle of the road with a strikeout rate against right-hand pitching. They own a 22.7% K%. They also own a 118 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and a .453 SLG. There is a lot of risk in this matchup with the Rangers bats, but unlike DFS, we don't care if Bello gets hit around. We care about him getting five or more strikeouts.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP Kyle Tucker + Mauricio Dubon to record a hit (-150 DraftKings SportsBook)
Over the last few weeks, I provided you with some hit parlays. Honestly, it's been a blast betting and has been very profitable. I will make this a constant theme in my articles for the rest of the season. I like giving you guys different looks on how to bet instead of writing up the everyday props like always. You can always take either of the two guys below for their total bases prop to get a better line.
Chase Anderson will get the ball for the Rockies against the Astros. Anderson has a .290 BAA and a 5.00 SIERA on the season. Over his last five starts, he allowed six or more hits in four outings. He has been getting hit for a .378 BAA over that period. Anderson has allowed a .289 BAA against lefties this season and a .296 BAA against righties.
Kyle Tucker is the best left-handed bat in this lineup against right-hand pitching with Alvarez on the shelf. He has a .267 AVG against the split this season. Tucker has a hit in 11 straight games. Marcia Dubon should hit the lead-off this afternoon. He is hitting .268 on the year against righties, which leads the Astros. Dubon has a hit in ten of his last 12 games.
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