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Welcome back to another weekend edition of Thunder Dan's free MLB player props! We have a full slate of games today and we open up with Atlanta and Baltimore today in a game that starts before noon! So grab your Cheerios and start studying up on which players you want to bet on today, the MLB action is closer than you think. Yesterday I whiffed on my strikeout props (pun intended) but hit both of my hitter props as Harper and Walker came through. It's a bit of an ugly slate for pitching but there are always a few spots that will stand out.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, May 7, 2023. All odds listed are on DraftKings unless otherwise specified, but always shop the books for the best bargains! Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games already.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
I thought I would share my entire model with you today, so here is every pitcher toeing the rubber on Sunday with the exception of Adrian Houser and Javy Guerra.
A note about the projections - they are only using data from this season (2023) and we have small sample sizes so far. We literally only have one game for Bielak and Bryce Miller so I wouldn't read into those too much. Like anything else, the projections should be used to help put each prop into context and other factors should also be considered - including weather, opposing lineups (especially on Sunday we get regulars resting), pitch counts, etc...
Mason Miller OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-130 DK)
You can see in the chart that Miller is one of the few pitchers with mainly green across the board. The only ding there is a 10% walk rate, but that is mainly due to him walking four hitters against Seattle in his last start. He had walked only one batter in each of his first two starts.
As we saw yesterday with Logan Allen, it's always risky projecting rookie pitchers, but we are trying to stay ahead of the market and we likely won't see Miller at this number too often if he keeps pitching well. After lasting only four innings in his first two starts, he went seven strong innings against Seattle without allowing a hit and struck out six. He had 5, 6, and 6 strikeouts in his three starts and a favorable matchup against the Royals today, though we should note that they have picked it up a bit lately, too, on offense.
Cal Quantrill UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DK)
So a Cleveland pitcher couldn't get us over against the Twins, so let's try to go under instead. Quantrill has some of the worst stuff on the slate in terms of generating swings and misses - check out that 11% K% and tiny 5% SwStr%. He has yet to strike out five hitters in a game this season and he got four just one time against a poor Detroit offense.
The Twins are a mediocre offense and usually, a team to target with a pitcher for an over, but I think Vegas is off on this one. Even in his last start against the Yankees when he pitched into the 8th inning, Quantrill struck out just two hitters. He is not a guy to pick on with hitters, because he can troll you and just get a bunch of weak contact, but he is not a guy to fear for strikeouts at all.
Michael Kopech OVER 1.5 walks (-180 DK)
Alright, since we don't have a lot of guys we like for strikeouts, let's get creative and go after a walks prop. Kopech is a guy who I love targeting for walks, he's been incredibly wild this season. A few starts ago, he trolled me when I went over 2.5 strikeouts and he walked just two (but he also hit two batters in that game) but he's walked two or more in every start this season.
Even in his last start, which was arguably his best as he struck out seven Twins and allowed only one run, he still walked FIVE hitters in the process. The Reds' lineup isn't good by any means, but they actually walk a bit more than average at nearly 10% (the league average is around 8.5%).
If you want some better odds, then Jose Suarez really pops here in my model as he's struggled with control lately and has a tough matchup with Texas. He's at +100 to walk two batters today.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Eric Haase OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 DK)
It feels weird to be recommending a Tiger for a hitting prop and I think it's the first time I have done it this season. I took a long look at Javier Baez, too, but it was Haase who really stood out with his profile against Matz and his sinker, which he throws nearly 60% of the time.
"Big Boss" Haase has a five-game hitting streak going as the Detroit offense has come to life a bit after a very slow April. He homered twice in that span and has two multi-hit games as well. His career splits vs. lefties are solid and he should have some RBI opportunities today hitting cleanup as Matz has allowed a lot of baserunners this season (1.71 WHIP).
If you wanted to be more aggressive here, then you can get his total bases prop over 1.5 for some great odds at +130 on DraftKings.
Brent Rooker OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DK)
Did you know Brent Rooker has 10 home runs this season? Did you even know who Brent Rooker was before this season? It's okay if you didn't because not a lot of folks did.
Anyway, let's talk about Rooker and how he's revitalized an Oakland offense that was among the worst in the league for the first month. He's hitting .330 with 26 RBI and he's absolutely stinging the ball right now.
It's only been a little over 30 at-bats this season, but against lefties, he's posted a .456 wOBA and .44 ISO. And today he will face a soft-tossing lefty from Kansas City in Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbs throws mainly an 85 MPH cutter, 87 MPH sinker, and a 79 MPH changeup to righties and Rooker's batted ball data against all those pitches is impressive. I'll be stacking up some As in DFS and I absolutely love this prop for Rooker who has shown the power to hit doubles and homers with regularity this season.
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