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We have a somewhat quiet Thursday in MLB by recent standards, as there are just seven games on tap, including a pair of matinee battles. Nevertheless, with some red-hot hitters and pitchers taking the hill, I've been able to identify some bets worth taking a stake on for the evening slate of games.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, April 13, 2023. With this being a split slate and there being a limited number of evening games, I've located two pitcher props and three hitter wagers to consider for this week. Good luck Rotoballers!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Lodolo OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+112 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Nick Lodolo has elite strikeout upside and has wasted no time demonstrating his rookie 29.7 % strikeout rate was no fluke. The young southpaw has actually one-upped himself early this season with 21 Ks in just 12 innings, good for a 41.2% figure.
Lodolo just racked up 12 Ks over seven innings on the road against the same Phillies team he'll face again Thursday in his home park. While the caveat about a lineup getting a second crack at a pitcher within less than a week's time applies, that's not to say Lodolo, as he typically does irrespective of opponent, won't miss his fair share of bats.
Philadelphia has opened the season with an elevated 25.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching as well (170 plate appearances), with Lodolo obviously having a big part to play in that number. Lodolo collected at least 8 strikeouts as a rookie in seven of 19 starts, with one those instances coming against the Phillies as well.
While it's not the easiest prop to cash, the fact it can be had at plus money makes it worth a roll of the dice in a matchup Lodolo has already proved capable of conquering.
Chris Bassitt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs allowed (-135 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Chris Bassitt couldn't have had a more inauspicious start to his Blue Jays career than his turn against the Cardinals in St. Louis back on April 2, when he allowed nine earned runs on 10 hits, including four homers, in just 3.1 innings.
However, the talented veteran right-hander, who recorded a career-high 15 wins with the Mets a season ago, bounced back to hold a dangerous Angels lineup to just two earned runs on two hits over six innings in his second start. He now gets a crack at a Tigers squad that's opened the season with a 24.7 % strikeout rate, .201 average, .260 wOBA and -15.6 wRAA against right-handed pitching.
Detroit has also scored an MLB-low -- by a wide margin -- 33 runs thus far, furthering Bassitt's case for keeping any damage to 2 ER or less while he's on the hill.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Paul Goldschmidt To Hit A HR (+900 FanDuel SportsBook)
Paul Goldschmidt has just a single homer over 55 plate appearances, an anomaly that's certainly due for a course correction based on his extensive past body of work.
To illustrate how out of the norm that drought is, consider Goldschmidt left the park once every 18.5 plate appearances in 2022 and once every 22.5 plate appearances from 2012-21.
This outstanding price is appreciably higher that in any other sportsbook for the same prop, and Goldy is facing off against the Pirates' Vince Velasquez, who he has one homer against in 15 career encounters and who's served up 68 homers (out of 124 total) in his career to right-handed bats.
Garrett Mitchell OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-140 DraftKings SportsBook)
Mitchell has a well-corroborated history as a standout hitter dating back to his meteoric minor-league career, and he's been at his best when facing the highest caliber of competition.
The lefty-swinging 24-year-old boasts a .313/.370/.525 slash line in his first 39 big-league games, following a .342/.435/.466 tally across 85 plate appearances at Triple-A Nashville to open 2022.
Mitchell has 52 total bases in those first 39 contests and now faces the Padres' Nick Martinez to open Thursday's game. Martinez has struggled with control overall and has middling swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 21.2% strikeout rate last season and 17.3% figure early this year.
Meanwhile, Mitchell has already four extra-base hits among his 11 total vs. righties, and when Martinez exits, he'll face a Padres bullpen that's already allowed a .284 average and .356 wOBA to the first 81 left-handed hitters it's faced this season.
Bo Bichette OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-130 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Bichette has started the season off on fire, racking up 32 total bases in just 12 games with the help of six extra-base hits, a .327 average, elite 35.4% line-drive rate and impressively modest 12.1% strikeout rate.
The young slugger has been especially lethal against right-handed pitching with a .343 average and 1.007 OPS, belting three of his four homers in that split along the way.
Meanwhile, Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has opened the season in turmoil, allowing 12 ER on 13 hits in his first two starts. The Tigers bullpen presents as an appealing target as well, considering Detroit relievers have given up a 5.63 ERA and 12 extra-base hits (out of 31 total) to the 134 right-handed batters they've faced thus far.
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