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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/9/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 9th, 2022.
Featured Promo: New Novig users get a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig deposit, and a 3 free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS and more! CLAIM IT NOWI'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 63-65-2, -16.46 units
- Sides: 32-34-1, -13.14 units
- Totals: 30-31-1, -5.02 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Pirates
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PIT +172
STL: Miles Mikolas | PIT: Roansy Contreras
We were able to go 2-0 on our plays on Wednesday and are now back at it again, starting off our weekend with a pair of first-inning unders. We'll head out to Pittsburgh where the Cardinals and Pirates will open up a divisional weekend series. The Cardinals will send right-hander Miles Mikolas (11-10, 3.32 ERA) to the mound. Mikolas has been the "pseudo-ace" on the Cardinals this season and has been solid in the first inning as well. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just two of 15 starts on the road in 2022, and in just six of 28 starts overall.
On the other hand, the Pirates are sending right-hander Roansy Conteras (4-4, 3.41 ERA) to the mound. The rookie has been a pleasant surprise for Pittsburgh this season, maintaining a relatively low ERA across 74 innings on the year. He's been nothing short of perfect in the first inning this season, holding opponents scoreless in each of his 13 starts, including seven starts at home.
While the Cardinals come into this one scoring in roughly 34% of first innings overall, that number drops down to just 27% when they're away from home, as well as being held scoreless in the first in eight of their last ten. Conversely, the Pirates are among the worst in baseball in this specific category, scoring in just over 19% of first innings at home and 18% of innings overall. They've been shut out in the first in nine of their last ten.
My model has the "true" odds of this play at -228 given the data, while FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at -130. We'll take the excellent value we're getting here and move on to the next!
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SD +142
LAD: Dustin May | SD: Mike Clevinger
I'll head out to San Diego for the second play of the evening, another first inning under. We backed this play on Wednesday when Arizona was in town, and we'll do the same today with the Dodgers. The Dodgers will be sending Dustin May (1-2, 3.94 ERA) to the mound. While May is making just his third start on the year, he hasn't allowed a first-inning run in his first two starts on the season, one of which coming on the road.
Mike Clevinger (5-6, 3.96 ERA) will have the task of taking on the daunting Dodgers lineup, but I'm not hesitant to back him in this spot, at least not in the first inning. Clevinger has allowed a run in just two of his 17 starts overall while going a perfect 6-0 on the road.
The Dodgers, as previously mentioned, are a daunting offense capable of striking at any moment. They've been among the best in the league scoring in the opening frame, putting a run across in roughly 35% of first innings on the road and in 37% of games overall. However, they've been held scoreless in nine of their last ten. Conversely, the Padres have scored in roughly 27% of first innings at home, but in just 24% of first innings overall, as well as being held scoreless in eight out of their last ten.
My model gives the first inning under a very nice 69.19% chance of hitting, good for odds of -230, while FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first inning under at -118. We'll run with the absolutely massive value here and be on the lookout for a 2-0 evening.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you Friday!
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