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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/30/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 30, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 76-79-2, -20.52 units
- Sides: 36-37-1, -13.29 units
- Totals: 39-42-1, -8.83 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Braves
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: ATL +104
NYM: Jacob deGrom | ATL: Max Fried
We finished yesterday just 1-1, following a lackluster performance early on from the Orioles and Red Sox offenses. I'll be running it back today with two first-inning under plays today to start the weekend. Let's get right to it.
I'll start out today in Atlanta, where we'll be seeing one of the most excellent pitching matchups of the season. It's an important series for both teams, as the visiting Mets will be sending Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA) to the mound. We backed deGrom on Saturday and he let us down against the A's, but we'll see if he can bounce back against the Braves today. He's still 9-1 to the under in the opening frame this year, and 3-1 on the road. He's been perfect against the Braves in two starts against them as well.
The Braves will be sending Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA) to the mound. This is a massive series for Atlanta, as they come into this series just one game behind the Mets in the NL East standings. They'll look to their ace to get the job done, and Fried has been arguably the most consistent starter in the first inning this season. He's allowed a first-inning run in just two starts overall in 29 starts, and while both of which came at home, that's not a bad tally for 17 starts at Truist Park.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first-inning under at -156, which isn't all that bad considering the game total sitting at 6.5. My model gives the under a 62.22% chance of hitting, good for -165 odds. While it's not much value, it's value nonetheless, and I have to back these pitchers to get the job done.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-165) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Brewers
O/U: 6 | Moneyline: MIL -160
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | MIL: Corbin Burnes
We'll go from one incredible pitching matchup to another, as the heavy favorite for this season's NL Cy Young will take on the reigning NL Cy Young. This is a big series for the Brewers, and I'm certainly hoping Sandy can get the job done this afternoon to aid the struggling Phillies into the playoffs.
Alcantara (14-8, 2.32 ERA) has been great in the first inning this season, allowing a run in just two of 15 starts on the road and in just six of 31 starts overall. This will be his first start against the Brewers in 2022, but he did hold them scoreless in the opening frame in each of his starts against them last season.
On the other hand, the Brewers will be sending Corbin Burnes (11-8, 3.11 ERA) to the mound. Similar to deGrom, we backed Burnes in a first-inning under last Saturday, and like deGrom, he let us down. But what is betting without "running it back"? Burnes has still been fantastic in the first, allowing just a run in just one of 16 starts at home and in just four of 30 starts overall. He's made just one start against the Fish this season, where he held them scoreless in the first and allowed just one earned run across seven innings of work. That run came from a solo homer via Jesus Aguilar, who's no longer with Miami.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first-inning under at a chalky -184 tonight. I normally wouldn't take a play like this unless I'm absolutely sure there's value. My model gives the under a 65.86% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -193. I can certainly see this line jumping north of -200 as the day goes on, so I would get this in as soon as possible. Also make sure you check out different books to ensure the best odds!
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-184) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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