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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/28/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
We have an 11-game MLB schedule going down this Thursday afternoon and evening and, as you know, there's always plenty of value to be had. It's the best time of the MLB season with playoff races in full flight with several teams playing crucial games each and every night.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Thursday, September 28, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BKemp17.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: DET (-110)
KC: Cole Ragans | DET: Sawyer Gipson-Long
The Royals and Tigers complete a three-game set this afternoon. First, they will complete a suspended contest from Wednesday evening and then will play the second half of a twin bill roughly 30 minutes after the conclusion of that contest.
The Royals will send left-hander Cole Ragans to the mound for the second half of the doubleheader and he has been flat-out impressive since donning a Royals uniform. The southpaw has worked to a tidy 2.34 ERA across 11 starts since entering the Royals' rotation following 17 unsuccessful bullpen outings with the Texas Rangers. Ragans owns an 18.6% K-BB% across 89 2/3 innings while his 3.23 FIP and his 3.82 SIERA confirm his solid work to this point.
The Tigers will hand the ball to rookie right-hander Sawyer Gipson-Long who has been excellent through his first three big-league starts. The former Twins farmhand has tossed a 2.40 ERA and a 33.3% K% across 15 frames in the big leagues this season. His 3.48 SIERA does spell some regression but is a fine figure in its own right. He has surrendered just a 20.6% hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate across 34 batted-ball events, as per Statcast.
Neither offense has hit well again this season. The Royals sit 26th with a .301 wOBA versus right-handed pitching while the Tigers enter this one ranked 22nd with a .310 wOBA off of left-handed pitching.
We will avoid the bullpens here and focus on the starters. The Tigers sit 20th with a 4.33 bullpen ERA on the season while the Royals are 28th with a 5.21 ERA from their relievers. These bullpens could spoil an early low-scoring affair.
Let's look for these starters to keep the game in check early.
Pick: F5 under 3.5 runs (+114, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI: (-218)
PIT: Luis L. Ortiz | PHI: Zack Wheeler
It's another edition of the battle of Pennsylvania this evening in the City of Brotherly Love as the Philadelphia Phillies play host to the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates will send right-hander Luis L. Ortiz to bump for the series finale and he has some concerning numbers across the board. He sports a 4.96 ERA across 17 outings (14 starts) with the Bucs this season but he also owns a 5.58 FIP, 5.68 SIERA, and a minuscule 2.4% K-BB% across his 81 2/3 innings of work in the big leagues this season. He also tossed a subpar 4.61 ERA/4.75 FIP along with a weak 10.8% K-BB% across 56 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season.
The Phillies will send their best arm to the mound for this one in the form of right-hander Zack Wheeler. The veteran enters this one sporting a 3.64 ERA across 31 starts but he also owns a 3.19 FIP, 3.54 SIERA, and a healthy 21.9% K-BB% on the campaign. His lone outing against the Pirates this season resulted in 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball while allowing all of three hits and one walk against a hefty 11 punchouts back on July 28 in Pittsburgh.
The offensive end of things are not particularly close between these two clubs. While the Phillies have the league's sixth-best offense versus righties, as per their .329 wOBA off of them, the Pirates sit 20th in that department with a .309 wOBA off of right-handed pitching.
The Phils also boast the bullpen advantage. They sit seventh with a solid 3.63 ERA from their relief pitching this season while the Pirates check in at 18th with a 4.29 ERA from their bullpen.
Let's not overthink this one. While the Phillies have clinched a postseason berth, it would be unwise to let their foot off the pedal in the season's final week. They should be able to take care of business with relative ease this evening on their home turf.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 run line (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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