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Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 23, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 75-73-2, -15.71 units
- Sides: 34-35-1, -12.72 units
- Totals: 38-37-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Rangers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TEX -118
CLE: Cody Morris | TEX: Jon Gray
We finished 1-1 on Wednesday, as Roansy Contreras allowed a first-inning run for the first time this season, a two-out grand slam by Oswaldo Cabrera. We'll bounce back today, not with first-inning under plays, but rather a pair of first-five money lines.
The Guardians will be sending Cody Morris (0-2, 2.30 ERA) to the mound to take on the Rangers. While Morris's 2.30 ERA makes the Guardians seem like the obvious play here, I'll be looking at Texas in this one. The truth is Morris's 15.2-inning run has been a bit lucky. He brings in a 38.6% hard contact allowed rate, a 5.41 FIP, and a 4.53 xFIP. Tonight may be a tough go for the righty, as I have the Rangers projected to a .518 team wOBA + ISO and a 38.29% hard contact rate.
The Rangers will be sending righty Jon Gray (7-7, 3.80 ERA) to the mound. The reason I'm looking at the first-five money line as opposed to the full-game money line is due to Gray's inability to go deep into games since returning from injury. He hasn't gone five innings since returning back on September 12. However, he looks to do well against the Cleveland lineup, projecting to a 3.37 xFIP and 29.38% hard contact rate tonight.
Gray will look to bounce back from his poor start against Cleveland back in June, where he allowed five earned runs in five innings. Walks really hurt him in that start, as he allowed four of them, but it should be worth noting that he's walked just one batter in eight innings since returning from the IL. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rangers F5 money line at -132, a line that just feels too low for a team that seemingly has such a strong pitching advantage.
Pick: Rangers F5 Money Line (-132) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ White Sox
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CWS -180
DET: Eduardo Rodriguez | CWS: Lucas Giolito
We'll head out to the Windy City for the second F5 money line bet tonight. I'm really not a fan of backing Lucas Giolito due to his form this season, but I'll be willing to take the risk tonight.
Giolito will match up with Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 4.35 ERA). This will be Rodriguez's third start against the Sox this season, and he's had some struggles. While he hasn't gained a decision, he's allowed five earned runs in 10.1 innings across his first two outings. Tonight may be more of the same, as I have the White Sox projected for a .556 wOBA + ISO and a 34.93% hard contact rate.
While I mentioned that I don't like backing him, Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.07 ERA) has been a bit unlucky this season. He's allowing just a 28% hard contact rate and brings in a 3.65 xFIP. I expect him to see some positive regression tonight, as I have him projected for just a 21.69% hard contact rate allowed, a 3.52 xFIP, and a whopping 34.5% strikeout rate. Giolito has been hot and cold against the Tigers this season but is coming into this one off of a 4.2-inning performance where he allowed just one run on four hits while striking out five last Friday.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the full game money line at -180, which is just a bit too much juice for me to take. I'll instead opt for the first-five money line, which is currently listed at -168. Let's start our weekend off strong and head into Saturday 2-0.
Pick: White Sox F5 Money Line (-168) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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