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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/18/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, we're back for another Sunday of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 18, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 72-70-2, -14.91 units
- Sides: 34-34-1, -11.72 units
- Totals: 36-35-1, -4.89 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Nationals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET +158
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | WSH: Anibal Sanchez
We finished 2-0 yesterday, and while it took extra innings in the White Sox game, a sweep is a sweep. We'll take a look at a pair of first-inning unders this afternoon in an effort to finish the weekend strong. We'll head to D.C. for the first play, as the Marlins and Nationals finish up their series.
We'll be backing Sandy Alcantara (12-8, 2.43 ERA). The NL Cy Young favorite has been excellent this season overall, but especially in the first inning. He's allowed a run in just two of 12 first innings on the road this season as well as in 24 of 29 starts overall. He did allow a first-inning tally against the Nationals in one of his three starts against them this season, but that was just one of two earned runs he's allowed in 23 innings against Washington on the year.
The Nationals will be sending veteran righty Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 4.56 ERA) to the mound. We backed Sanchez last weekend against the Phillies and it didn't work out, but we'll run it back this afternoon against the Marlins. That was just one of two occasions this season where Sanchez has allowed a run in the first across his eight starts, he's also 4-1 to the first inning under at home this season.
The Marlins have been held scoreless in 87.7% of first innings on the road this season, as well as in 82.6% of first innings overall. They have been hot lately, though, scoring in the first in four of their last 10 games. The Nationals have been held scoreless in 75% of first innings at home and in 73.4% of first innings overall. They've also been held scoreless in nine of their last 10 opening frames.
While FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -146, my model gives the under implied odds of 64.39%, good for "true" odds of -181. We'll rock with the solid value here and hope that Sanchez can bounce back for us this afternoon.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-146) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Mets
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYM -460
PIT: Johan Oviedo | NYM: Jacob deGrom
We'll head out to Queens for the second first-inning under of the day as the Pirates and Mets finish up their weekend series. The Pirates will look to keep the Mets lineup under wraps with Johan Oviedo (3-2, 3.34 ERA). Oviedo is making just his fourth start of the season. He's been perfect in the first inning this season, holding opponents scoreless in all three starts, including his only start on the road.
On the other hand, the Mets will be sending Jacob deGrom (5-2, 2.01 ERA) to the mound. I mentioned Sandy Alcantara as the NL Cy Young favorite, but I'm not sure if that would be the case had deGrom pitched a full season. Either way, like Oviedo, deGrom has been perfect in the first inning. He's a perfect 5-0 to the first inning under at home as well as 8-0 overall.
The Pirates have been poor in the first inning, being held scoreless in 83.8% of opening frames on the road as well as 82% overall, as well as in eight of their last 10. Conversely, the Mets have been rather good, being held scoreless in just 56.8% of first innings at home and in 66.4% of firsts overall, including eight of their last 10.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the game total at just 6.5, so similar to yesterday, I expected a bit of chalk on the first inning under. It isn't so bad though, as FanDuel has it at -142. While the Mets have been great in the first, my model still gives the under implied odds of 73.09%, or a true line of -272. We'll take the massive value here and finish our weekend strong.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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