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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 6, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 50-38-3 (+2.19 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +164
TB: Tyler Glasnow | DET: Matt Manning
We'll start our Sunday out in Detroit, as the Rays and Tigers close out their weekend series.
It'll be Tyler Glasnow on the mound for the Rays. Glasnow (5-3, 3.15 ERA) has been excellent of late, allowing just six earned runs in his last five starts (32.2 innings). While his xERA sits at 4.08, his xFIP is just 2.67, and he gets a quality matchup against a poor Detroit offense today. He projects to a 2.88 SIERA today, while the Tigers project to a .304 wOBA against his pitch types and a .270 wOBA overall.
Matt Manning (3-3, 4.53 ERA) will take the mound for the Tigers today. He brings in a 5.10 xERA and 5.33 xFIP, so we can expect some regression from him, perhaps today. He allowed 11 earned runs across his last two starts (11 innings) against the Pirates and Angels. He'll take on a Rays offense that projects to a .357 wOBA against his pitch types. He projects to a 4.46 SIERA in this one.
We'll stick to the first five innings here, taking the Rays' run line, which we can get at -140 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rays F5 -0.5 (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.71 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN +132
ARI: Zac Gallen | MIN: Dallas Keuchel
I'll wrap things out in Minnesota, as the Diamondbacks and Twins wrap up their series before Minnesota heads up to the aforementioned Detroit to start a new series.
It'll be Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.41 ERA) taking the ball for the Diamondbacks today, who are in the midst of a five-game skid. They'll look for their ace to be the stopper today, but Gallen himself is due for some regression. He brings in a 3.94 xERA and 3.55 xFIP. Projecting to a 3.63 SIERA in this one, he'll take on a Twins lineup that projects to a .314 wOBA against his pitch types and a .297 weighted wOBA overall.
It'll be Dallas Keuchel making his season debut for the Twins today. The former A.L. Cy Young Award winner has had a rough go of things over the last few years, most recently carrying a 9.20 ERA across 14 starts for three different teams in 2022. He projects to a 4.96 SIERA in this one against a Diamondbacks offense that projects to a .340 wOBA against his pitch types and a .333 weighted wOBA overall.
I really could've just said "Zac Gallen vs. Dallas Keuchel" here, as Keuchel will need to prove to me that he can pitch at the MLB level before I would even consider not fading him. Nevertheless, we'll grab the Snakes' money line at -156 on FanDuel.
Pick: Diamondbacks Money Line (-156), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.64 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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