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It's Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 and we are back with another MLB free picks article! There are 15 games being played, all 30 MLB teams in action throughout the day. We have a few day games and then several night games tonight. If you are looking to get involved in some MLB action, this time of year is one of my favorites and it isn't too late!
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Oakland A's @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.5| Moneyline: OAK -110
OAK: James Kaprielian| WSN: Anibal Sanchez
This game is pretty awesome. It consists of the two worst pitchers on the slate and two of the worst offenses on the slate too.
James Kaprielian has a 5.43 xFIP and a 5.29 SIERA. Anibal Sanchez has a 5.28 xFIP and a 5.17 SIERA. If these teams were good offensively, the run total for this game would be at 9.0 or 9.5 instead of the 8.5 we are seeing at the moment.
Let's look at some of these hitting metrics. With OBP, Oakland is 30th, and Washington is 19th. With ISO, both teams are tied for 27th. In wRC+, Washington is 23rd while Oakland is 28th. Neither of these teams hit well and it will be really interesting to see if facing a bad pitcher helps at all or whether these offenses are so inept that it doesn't matter.
Looking at the bullpen metrics next. Washington has the 10th-highest bullpen ERA while Oakland's is 12th. With bullpen xFIP, Oakland has the sixth-worst while Washington has the seventh-worst. Both of these bullpens are bad. But so are the opposing offenses.
I am a little surprised that Washington is not favored in this one. One could make an argument for either team. I think this matchup with these offenses and starting pitchers is pretty dang close.
I believe this game goes under and Washington wins.
Pick: Washington Moneyline (-106), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 Units; UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110), BetMGM Sportsbook 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -135
PHI: Bailey Falter| ARI: Tommy Henry
Outside of the Oakland and Washington game, the next worst starting pitcher on this slate is Tommy Henry from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has a 5.13 xFIP, 5.09 SIERA, and a 10.3% K-BB% this season. With a solid offense like Philadelphia in town, this is a recipe for disaster for Arizona.
Bailey Falter is interesting as well. His ERA is 4.41, xFIP is 4.52, but his SIERA is 4.09. I am not certain if that wide split between xFIP and SIERA is due to pitching in Philadelphia or what. Regardless, he isn't some stud or ace on the mound either.
Looking at the offensive categories I like to dig into, Philadelphia is 15th in OBP while Arizona is 21st. With ISO, Philadelphia is seventh while Arizona is 10th. With wRC+, Philadelphia is 12th while Arizona is 21st. Philadelphia is average or so offensively while Arizona is just below average. Bryce Harper is back and that definitely helps the Phillies.
Neither bullpen is great either. Arizona has the second-highest bullpen xFIP, while Philadelphia's bullpen xFIP is the 11th- highest.
Given that Arizona is the worst stadium in the league for allowing home runs given the 2022 park factors, this is a game I think Philadelphia wins due to the pitching matchup but the run total stays under.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-135), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 Units; UNDER 9 Runs (-107), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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