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It's Monday, August 15th, the start of another week and some exciting MLB action! We have a 14-game slate today, including some fun pitching matchups like Joe Musgrove and Sandy Alcantara, Carlos Carrasco and Spencer Strider, and Luis Castillo and Shohei Ohtani.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -145
NYM: Carlos Carrasco | ATL: Spencer Strider
This is a huge series for Atlanta if they want to get back into the mix at winning the NL East. The Braves are 4-8 against the Mets this season but are also on a six-game winning streak. So which one continues? Mets futility or the overall winning streak?
Spencer Strider is the more effective pitcher between the two starting pitchers. He has a 2.49 SIERA and a 38% strikeout rate. Carlos Carrasco isn't bad, he has a 3.56 SIERA and a 23.7% strikeout rate, but he just isn't elite there. The one thing that will be interesting is that the Mets have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball while the Braves have one of the highest.
Offensively, the Mets are second in OBP, 13th in ISO, and third in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The Braves, on the other hand, are 20th in OBP, first in ISO, and 10th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The Mets get on base more consistently, while the Braves flex more power to score.
For bullpens, the Braves have the fifth-best bullpen ERA at 3.24 while the Mets have the 10th-best at 3.48. Looking at SIERA, the Mets have the second-best bullpen SIERA while the Braves have the third-best bullpen SIERA.
This game should be close. Spencer Strider is the better pitcher, which gives them the edge in this one.
Pick: Atlanta Moneyline (-145), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: LAA -115
SEA: Luis Castillo| LAA: Shohei Ohtani
This is a matchup that does not have huge consequences in the standings but should just be a lot of fun to watch between two of the better pitchers in the league!
Ohtani is no joke. He has a 2.48 SIERA and a 35.2% strikeout rate this season. Castillo is having one of his better seasons this year with a 3.57 SIERA and a 26.1% strikeout rate.
Seattle has a wRC+ of 103 to the Angels' wRC+ of 96. Seattle has a bullpen SIERA of 3.26 (4th best) while the Angels have a bullpen SIERA of 3.74. Outside of the starting pitching matchup, Seattle is the better team. Not a surprise given the records of these teams going into this.
It is surprising that Seattle is an underdog and unless Ohtani is going to pitch a complete game, I like Seattle at plus odds tonight.
Pick: Seattle Moneyline (+102), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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