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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/14/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, after some festivities on Friday night, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 14, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 51-56-2, -16.58 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 21-23-1, -3.83 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Mets
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYM -138
PHI: Zack Wheeler | NYM: Chris Bassitt
We're back at it today with two more first-inning underplays after going 1-1 on them on Friday. We'll start by taking a look at the Phillies and the Mets in the final game of a highly anticipated three-game set. After a complete game, albeit in a losing effort, by Aaron Nola last night, the Phillies will send former Met Zack Wheeler (11-5, 2.63 ERA) to the mound. Wheeler has kept opponents off the scoreboard in nine out of 10 first innings on the road this season and in 19 of 21 first innings overall.
The home team will be sending right-handed starter Chris Bassitt (9-7, 3.39 ERA) to the hill. It'll be tough for Bassitt to replicate the spectacular performance that Jacob deGrom put on yesterday, but we're not asking him to do that. We just need him to keep the Phillies off the board in the first inning, something he's done twice already this season. He's held opposing teams scoreless in the opening frame in 17 of 21 starts overall, including 10 of 11 at Citi Field.
While both games in this series have been low scoring, there's actually been a first-inning tally in each game, with the Phillies getting to Max Scherzer early Friday night, and the Mets returning the favor against Aaron Nola last night. However, FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first-inning under at just -128, good for 56.14% implied odds. My model gives the first inning under a 57.45% chance of hitting, making this play good up to -135.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Rays
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TB -172
BAL: Jordan Lyles | TB: Drew Rasmussen
We'll head down to St. Petersburg, Florida for our second first-inning under of the day to run back the first-inning under after losing the one on Friday night. We'll look to get it back with Baltimore sending Jordan Lyles (9-8, 4.35 ERA) to the mound. Lyles has been pretty good in the first inning this season, keeping opponents off the scoreboard in 10 of 13 starts on the road and in 17 of 23 starts overall. He's held the Rays off the board in two of three first-innings this year, and one of two in the Trop.
On the other hand, the Rays will send Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 2.96 ERA) to the hill. We backed Rasmussen in a first-inning underplay on Sunday and he got the job done, so we'll be hoping for the same today. Rasmussen has held opponents scoreless in 16 of 19 first innings overall this year, as well as seven of eight at home. He's held the O's off the board in the opening frame in both starts this season, one at home and one on the road.
Adley Rutschman ruined our dreams of a 2-0 sweep on the other night, but I'm confident in Drew Rasmussen to do what Kluber was not able to on Friday. I'm not worried as much about the Rays scratching one across against Lyles, as they've been held scoreless in just over 72% of games overall. They did score in the first yesterday, which broke a streak of 10 consecutive opening frames without a run. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the under at just -120, while my model has the under good up to -151.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-151) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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