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Happy Tuesday, everyone. After a long layoff with the All-Star break, we're back for some MLB bets. We start our action today with two different types of bets, both based on starting pitching matchups. We have one first five-inning bet and a moneyline bet. There's nothing better than attacking Alex Manoah on the first article back from break, so let's get to it.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Phillies
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI (-205)
MIL: Julio Teheran | PHI: Aaron Nola
We start our action today in Philadelphia with a matchup between the Brewers and the Phillies. Julio Teheran will be toeing the rubber for the Brewers, and Aaron Nola will get the ball for the Phillies.
Teheran enters today's start with a 4.62 SIERA, 17.3% K%, and a 1.02 WHIP. Since June 1, he has a 4.43 SIERA, 18.9% K%, and a 1.08 WHIP. Teheran has been getting knocked around in his last two starts, allowing six and seven earned runs. Since June 1, his opponent Aaron Nola has been nails. He owns a 3.26 SIERA, 30.6% K, and a 1.08 WHIP.
The Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have won 26 of their last 36 games. They have the advantage on the mound tonight with a red-hot Aaron Nola, and the bats have woken up over the previous month. I am betting the Phillies -0.5 first three innings, the first five innings, and the Phillies -1. The safest bet is the first five innings, so that I will post that below.
Pick: Phillies -0.5 first five innings (-155) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Blue Jays
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: SD (-120)
SD: Joe Musgrove | TOR: Alek Manoah
I want to start by saying, wow, has Alec Manoah been a disappointment this season? He enters today start with a 5.63 SIERA, 18.4% K%, 13.8% BB%, and a .283 BAA. Manoah was great in his first start since being sent down to the minors against the Tigers, going six innings allowing one earned run, and striking out eight.
He gets a matchup today against the Padres, who, on the offensive side of the ball, are clicking on all cylinders. Since June 1, the Padres have owned a 111 wRC+, .330 wOBA, and a .427 SLG against right-hand pitching.
Joe Musgrove will get the rock for the Padres. Musgrove enters today's start with a 3.76 SIERA, 24.2% K%, and a 1.15 WHIP. Since June 1, he has a 3.43 SIERA, 25.3% K%, and a 0.96 WHIP. I am banking on getting a bad Manoah against the red-hot Padres bats today.
Pick: Padres moneyline -120 DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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