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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/10/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Tuesday and this article will focus on the 14-game slate that starts at 6:35 PM Eastern time so that everyone that sees this will have time to tail the plays if they wish. I generally avoid doubleheaders as Oakland and Detroit play one, but they are difficult to handicap.
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, May 10, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 10-17-1 overall on the season, down 2.27 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black. Just yesterday, I went 2-0 and won 1.125 units on the bets below. Hoping to come back today with another profitable record!
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SFG -184
COL: Antonio Senzatela | SFG: Alex Wood
The Rockies have Antonio Senzatela taking the mound against the Giants. Senzatela is 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA but his xFIP is 4.73. He has a career-low 6.4% strikeout rate and a career-best 4.6% walk rate. When I analyze pitchers that could get blown up, I generally look at xFIP, SIERA, and K-BB%. With so few strikeouts, Senzatela is giving up a lot of contact. Nowadays, when a pitcher gives up a lot of contact, it is only a matter of time before they give up a lot of runs. The Giants are 4th in runs scored, 6th in on-base percentage, and 16th in ISO. Having a pitcher that allows contact with a team that is getting on base frequently and you have a potential recipe for disaster. Add to the mix that the Rockies bullpen ERA is a league-worst 4.94 and you will see that the Giants should put up some runs here.
On the other side, this is a great spot for San Francisco. Alex Wood is 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA but a 2.85 xFIP. This suggests that he's been pitching better than the surface stats show. He is striking out 25% of batters which is a little better than his career 22.7% mark. The Rockies' offense has been better than expected to this point. They are 2nd in on-base percentage, 9th in runs scored, 10th in ISO, and have just the 24th highest strikeout rate in the league.
My pick for this game is over the seven-run total posted in the books right now. The Giants alone could score seven runs and while Alex Wood has been pitching very well, it is still plausible for the Rockies to put up a few runs here as well, especially with the Giants bullpen being more middle of the pack.
Pick: Over 7 (-112), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIA -130
MIA: Jesus Luzardo | ARI:Madison Bumgarner
This is an intriguing series to me as Arizona has been better than expected so far this year. Tonight the Marlins send Jesus Luzardo on the mound. Luzardo is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 2.89 xFIP. He has a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate yet also a career-worst 11.4% walk rate. Quite frankly it is interesting to see someone with such a low xFIP and positive metrics with a walk rate this high. Often players that walk over 10% of batters get blown up and have a really difficult time (spoiler alert).
On the other side, we have Madison Bumgarner who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA. The red flag here is his xFIP is 5.02. He has a career-low 15.3% strikeout rate and a career-high walk rate of 11.2%. It may not happen tonight but it is a matter of time before Bumgarners' ERA regresses closer to his xFIP, especially with his low K-BB%.
With the bullpen matchup, Miami has the 5th best bullpen ERA (2.97) while Arizona's is 27th best (4.56).
The only thing this game has going for it to keep it close is that neither team is great offensively. Miami's offensive stats reside in the 16-20 range out of 30 teams in the league, while Arizona's are more in the low to mid-20s. Both pitchers are susceptible to getting blown up with their high walk rates.
This is going to be a boring pick but I like Miami here. Generally, we want to avoid paying a lot of juice and find an underdog to back instead, but I think Miami should be a larger favorite in this spot than they are and will go with them.
Pick: Miami Moneyline (-130), WynnBet, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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