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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/20/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's Thursday and while we don't have a jam-packed schedule on tap we have plenty of value on the board with seven games on tap. It's a mix of matinee action and some evening contests as we look to pad our bankrolls.
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can get on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYM (-122)
NYM: Kodai Senga | SF: Sean Manaea
The Mets and Giants open up a four-game set tonight from San Fran and it's the road side who sports the best value to come out on top.
Sean Manaea isn't off to a great start to his Giants tenure. Twice in three starts has Manaea failed to pitch more than 3 1/3 innings while he carries a 4.76 ERA/464 FIP into action while he continues to struggle with the home run ball. After posting a hefty 1.65 HR/9 last season, Manaea owns a 1.59 mark this time around with two homers surrendered in just 11 2/3 innings on the young season.
The Mets haven't exactly raked at the plate -- outside of Pete Alonso -- as they are hitting just .227 as a team with a middle-of-the-pack .322 wOBA. However, they've also been stung by an MLB-worst .254 BABIP while their plate discipline has been fantastic by way of a 0.70 BB/K that is by far the best number in baseball.
Kodai Senga has more or less been as advertised after making the transition overseas on a five-year deal with the Mets. The righty owns a 3.38 ERA and 30% K% in three outings, although he also sports a 14.5% BB% with three homers allowed in 16 innings. That home run rate should subside given his solid 5.1% barrel rate against while he averages a whopping 96.6 mph on his four-seam fastball.
The Giants have been the better offense between the two clubs so far as their .329 wOBA is tied for ninth but they also strike out more than anybody in baseball at 27.7%. That's not going to bode well against Senga in this matchup.
Look for the Mets to open up this four-game set with a moneyline victory Thursday night.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-122), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: SD (-142)
SD: Michael Wacha | ARI: Ryne Nelson
It's Fernando Tatis Jr. Day for the Padres as the club welcomes back their superstar right fielder after serving an 80-game PED suspension. All Tastis did during his minor-league tuneup is hit .515 with seven homers, two doubles, two stolen bases, and a 1.802 OPS across eight games with Triple-A El Paso. Needless to say, he'll be a welcomed addition to the Padres lineup.
It's a Padres lineup that was supposed to mash even without Tatis to begin the season. That has not been the case to this point as San Diego sits 22nd with a .307 wOBA on the young season while Juan Soto and Manny Machado have yet to find a groove at the dish.
However, Ryne Nelson is due to regress for the D-backs. The right-hander has pitched to a 3.71 ERA in three starts but he also sports a 4.55 FIP, 5.14 SIERA, and a tiny 14.3% K%. Remember, this is a guy that posted a 5.43 ERA/5.49 FIP across 26 starts at Triple-A last season. This will be a difficult lineup for him to navigate tonight.
This isn't to say Michael Wacha has been brilliant. The veteran has scuffled to a 6.06 ERA on the season in three outings while allowing three homers in 16 1/3 innings. However, he's once again keeping walks to a minimum while his 4.37 SIERA suggests he's been significantly better than his ERA would suggest.
If we factor in the bullpens, the pitching advantage is with San Diego in a big way. The two starts should trend in opposite directions moving forward but the Padres get to face a D-backs bullpen that sits 26th with a 5.50 ERA on the season. Additionally, they sit 29th with a 6.00 FIP and dead last with a 2.10 HR/9 in 68 2/3 innings on the season.
Ride with the road team on the moneyline again in this matchup.
Pick: Padres moneyline (-142), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 Unit
Good luck folks!
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