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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/29/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday RotoBallers, it's World Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, October 29, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 16-5-3 (+6.93 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Astros
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: HOU -138
PHI: Zack Wheeler | HOU: Framber Valdez
We managed to go 1-0 last night, as both offenses were held off the board in the first inning before scoring ten runs across the next four innings. After Philly was able to steal Game 1, we'll take a look and try to predict how Game 2 will go.
The visiting Phillies will be sending Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) to the mound. Wheeler has been nothing short of excellent in the Postseason thus far, allowing just five earned runs across 25.1 innings, good for an ERA of 1.78. He hasn't pitched against the Astros this season, but my model does have him pitching well tonight, with a projected 2.99 xFIP, 22.61% hard contact rate allowed, and 27.61% strikeout rate.
Conversely, the Astros will send Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA) to the mound. While Wheeler has pitched well (and more) this Postseason, Valdez has been even better; allowing just two earned runs across 12.2 innings, good for an ERA of just 1.42. Valdez pitched one game against the Phillies this season, back on October 5, tossing five scoreless innings and allowing just two hits while striking out ten. My model projects him to a 3.10 xFIP, 33.41% hard contact rate allowed, and a 23.97% strikeout rate. It is worth noting, though, that Framber's ground ball rate allowed projection is north of 80%, so he should keep the ball on the ground tonight.
I looked at the first inning under yesterday, but today we'll be taking the full game under. Both teams' offenses exploded for five runs across the first five innings yesterday, but I expect today to be a tighter, more low-scoring affair. Both teams used their top bullpen arms yesterday, but this is the World Series, and I expect both teams to go no-holds-barred to win Game 2. FanDuel Sportsbook has the game total at 7 runs with odds of -114, which I think is solid value here. Note that I wouldn't take this line at 6.5, and would love it at 7.5, but I'll take it at 7.
Pick: Under 7 (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Tuesday!
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