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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/18/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday RotoBallers, it's playoff time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 18, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 8-4-2 (+2.05 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Guardians
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYY -166
CLE: Aaron Civale | NYY: Nestor Cortes
We hit on the Yankees F5 money line on Sunday and came away 1-0, so you know what time it is. If it's not broken don't fix it, so we'll be looking at the Yankees F5 money line once again.
As of now, the visiting Guardians will send Aaron Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA) to the mound. Civale, who hasn't pitched in the postseason yet, made two starts against the Yankees this season, tossing just nine innings while allowing ten runs. I can't imagine that Civale is going to go deep into this game unless he puts on an absolute masterclass on the mound, which I just don't see happening. My model projects Civale to a 3.86 xFIP and a 34.02% hard contact rate this afternoon.
Conversely, the Yankees will send "Nasty" Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA) to the mound. We backed Nestor on a Yankees F5 play earlier in the series and he let us down, allowing a run in each of the fourth and fifth innings to blow the 2-0 lead. My model projects him to a 3.45 xFIP and 24.14% hard contact allowed this afternoon, so we'll run it back with him.
FanDuel Sportsbook has this line pretty close to Sunday's as it sits at -170. While it's more juice than I'm usually willing to take, I believe it's the best course of action for this game. Even if Civale ends up not starting this one, I can't imagine that the Guardians will have the pitching advantage. That is unless Shane Bieber comes back on three days' rest and has a lights-out performance. We know Yankee Stadium will be rocking, so I'll bet on the Yankees to get up early and often here.
Pick: Yankees F5 Money Line (-170) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Padres
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SD -126
PHI: Zack Wheeler | SD: Yu Darvish
I'll head out to the west coast for the second play of the night, this time a player prop. While in both my biased and objective opinion, I do think the Phillies come away with the Game 1 win in San Diego, I'm not comfortable enough to put my money on it. It'll just be an emotional investment for me, which I'm okay with.
I'll be backing Yu Darvish on a strikeout prop once again. While the Phillies have been scoring in bunches throughout these playoffs, they've been striking out a fair amount as well. On top of that, Darvish has hit this number in four of his last five, nine of his last ten, and at a very nice 69% clip on the year. While he only struck out six in one of his two starts against the Phillies this season, it's worth noting that it came in San Diego, where he'll take the ball tonight.
FanDuel Sportsbook actually has this number at plus-money, currently sitting at +102. It's a rather fair line considering the Phillies have scored 24 runs in their last four games, but I'll have to take the value here and assume that Yu Darvish stays on par with Phillies ace Zack Wheeler throughout the early innings tonight.
Pick: Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Thursday!
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