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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/16/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday RotoBallers, it's Division Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 16, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 7-4-2 (+1.47 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Guardians
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: CLE +146
NYY: Gerrit Cole | CLE: Cal Quantrill
We were able to go 1-0-1 again yesterday, hitting the Yankees F5 money line while taking another push on the Astros F5 money line, a game that took 18 innings for a run to be scored. We took the Yankees' F5 money line two days in a row now, so what would a third day hurt?
The Yankees will be sending Gerrit Cole (13-8, 3.50 ERA) to the mound tonight. Cole certainly did his job on Tuesday night, tossing 6.1 innings while allowing just four hits and one run while striking out eight. He projects to a 2.84 xFIP and 26.22% hard contact rate tonight, with a 33.93% strikeout rate. The Guardians have a projected .444 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types as a lineup.
Conversely, the Guardians will be sending their Game 1 starter, Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38 ERA), to the mound. Quantrill pitched fine on Tuesday, tossing five innings while allowing five innings and three earned runs, but it wasn't good enough to keep up with Cole. He projects to a 4.46 xFIP and 29.7% hard contact rate against the Yankees tonight, who project to a .486 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types. Quantrill is a better pitcher at home, which gives some cause for concern, but I'm not too worried about it.
FanDuel Sportsbook has this line a bit more juiced than in days past, as the Yankees F5 money line sits at -172. However, my model gives the Yankees the advantage in every major category except for their walk rate (6.85% to Cleveland's 7.67%). With their backs against the wall and their ace on the mound, I expect New York to get it going early and often as they did on Tuesday when they got the F5 win with these same pitchers on the mound.
Pick: Yankees F5 Money Line (-172) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Tuesday!
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