Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - ZOZO Championship

For the second time in two seasons at Flag Hunting, Tom Kim has gotten our Fall Swing off to a quick start with a win at TPC Summerlin! It was far from the flawless bogey-free performance he showcased in 2022, but credit is still due for the way Tom continually battled back from multiple setbacks over the course of the week. From a double bogey on his 18th hole on Friday and a short miss to end his day on the 9th, to back-to-back Sunday bogies to quell a red-hot start, the 21-year-old showcased a maturity well above his years to overcome mistakes that would typically be back-breaking in a tournament where scores in the low-60s almost become normalized.

Now we transition into the "International Swing" of the PGA Tour Fall Calender, as the Tour jumps from Chiba, Japan, to Los Cabos, Mexico, and Southampton, Bermuda in the space of three weeks. The ZOZO Championship is the youngest (and the last remaining), event from the Asian Swing of the mid-2010s, but in its short history, it has crowned some incredibly meaningful champions. Tiger Woods captured his 82nd career win here in the inaugural event back in 2019 - tying Sam Snead for the most wins in PGA Tour history. Two years later, Hideki Matsuyama won the second iteration of the ZOZO on home soil, becoming the first Japanese man to win a PGA Tour event in his native country. And last year, we saw Keegan Bradley edge Rickie Fowler by one stroke in a battle of two top players in the midst of a four-year-long winless drought.

Rickie, of course, got his breakthrough win the following summer in Detroit, but you can bet he's coming back for a bit of revenge in his grandmother's native land. Joining him are some of the best players on the planet, two former ZOZO Champions, and a host of young upstarts looking to capture the biggest win of their careers to date. Without further ado, here's everything you need to know about Narahsino Country Club and the 2023 ZOZO Championship!

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The Golf Course

Narashino Country Club - Par 70; 7,080 yards

Tipping out at just 7,080 yards, Narashino would initially profile as your standard short, positional wedge party (a la TPC Summerlin, River Highlands, or Waialae). However, course yardages are often very deceiving when taken at face value, and one look at the 18-hole routing this week will tell you that Narashino is not likely to be playing like the traditional short Par 70 we see in the U.S.

With 5 Par 3’s (all under 210 yards) on the scorecard, the total yardage really disguises the length of some of the par 4s and 5s. In fact, 5 of the 10 par 4s on this course measure over 480 yards and each carries a Bogey or Worse rate of >23%. The other 5 two-shotters on the property each measure under 430 yards, so there are some wedge opportunities available on this course. But make no mistake, the longer set of par 4s around Narashino are not to be messed with. With tight fairways and some of the smallest greens we've seen to this point in the season, two high-quality shots will need to be executed to earn a birdie opportunity. 

The Par 5’s aren’t exactly complete pushovers either: The 608-yard 14th hole has surrendered just one eagle to these touring pros in 12 competition rounds, and its 15% Bogey/Worse rate with just a 22% birdie rate is almost unheard of from a Par 5 in the modern game. With so many seriously challenging holes within its routing, and only two legitimately scorable par 5s, players this week will have to do a lot of their scoring on Narashino's softer side: the par 3s and aforementioned shorter par 4s.

With four of its five par 3s playing under par, Narashino actually presents one of the easier sets of short holes on the PGA Tour. Outside of the 205-yard 5th hole, no other par 3 on the property measures over 185 yards and each of these four shorter holes features a birdie or better rate of 17-20%. The other five par 4s on property measure from 360-425 yards and will provide players with a bit of a breather between the five behemoths we discussed earlier. This stark contrast between relatively benign shorter holes and championship-caliber long ones is one of the quintessential themes of Narashino Country Club. I can't think of another course where there isn't a single hole measuring between 425-480 yards, but this layout makes the objective very clear: take advantage of the wedge/short irons you do have, because a failure to do so will make it almost impossible to make up ground as Narashino bears its teeth.

To the eye, Narashino presents a similar driving test to what we see stateside at courses like Colonial or Riviera: tight, tree-lined corridors and pronounced doglegs that will force players to shape the ball both ways off the tee. The fairways and rough here are Zoysia grass, but the rough doesn’t tend to be nearly as penal as you’d expect from a course that plays this difficult. It only measures 2-2.5" in length, however, given how small the green complexes are here (just under 5500 sq. foot on average), playing from the rough will make it nearly impossible to consistently hold these greens. Given some of the reoccurring names we've seen on past leaderboards at Narashino, I think this is yet another week to factor accuracy over distance. However, there aren't nearly enough hazards off the fairway to completely discount the bombers. As long as you've historically rated out well in more general driving stats (SG: OTT, Total Driving, etc.), I'm more than comfortable projecting you for success off-the-tee here at Narashino.

In terms of key proximity ranges to focus in on, Narashino once again does a really good job of mixing up the tempo of a round. Guys will have everything from wedge to 5-iron into these Par 4s, so it’s hard for me to really pin down a key range here. Instead, I’ve shifted a bit more of my weighting into general iron metrics like GIR %, SG: APP, and Birdie Chances Created. All three of our past champions at Narashino finished inside the top 3 in Greens in Regulation for the week, and with such a stark contrast in scoring averages from hole-to-hole, guys will need to be both well-versed in creating birdie opportunities with their scoring clubs and grinding out pars on 500-yard par 4s.

For the first time all swing season, I’ll be weighing around the green play comparably putting amongst the short game categories. With a below-average GIR % and generally difficult scoring conditions, you’re going to have to get up-and-down much more here than in your traditional swing-season birdie party. I’ve weighted Bogey Avoidance, SG: ARG, and Sand Saves within my modeling (Still well below the two ball-striking metrics, but I predict scrambling as a whole will be much more of a factor than we’ve seen over the last month on Tour.

If you’re a fan of ball-striking, and guys that can’t putt, you’ll likely love the top of the leaderboard here this week as well, as players like Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Steele, Luke List, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Ben-An, Emiliano Grillo, Cam Champ, Tom Hoge, and Gary Woodland have all finished inside the Top 10 here at the ZOZO in its first three iterations. We have seen a bit of crossover between recent winners and bentgrass pedigree, but with a laundry list of #TeamNoPutt mainstays filling the first page of the first three leaderboards we've seen here, it's clear that elite ball-striking can easily make up for some putting deficiencies around this layout.

 

Key Stats Roundup: 

• This is another week in which I'm weighing accuracy over distance off the tee, although, unlike last week, I’m not banking entirely on stats such as Fairway % and Good Drive %. With rough that doesn't profile as very penal, as well as a general lack of hazards in the way of wayward drives this week, I can make the case that elite distance can Consistently positive performers in general driving metrics like SG: OTT and Total Driving are up for consideration as well.
• With the wide distribution of hole compositions within Narashino’s layout, I anticipate a wider variety of Approach shots this week when compared to the first three stops of the Swing Season. Heavy emphasis on iron play as usual, but I’ll be looking at more general approach metrics like SG: APP, GIR %, and Birdie Chances Created
• I still believe Narashino to be more of a complete tee-to-green test than any stop we’ve had since the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but we’ve also seen some throughlines between historic bentgrass success and our past champions list through 3 years here. I do have a slight weight on long-term splits on bent grass dating back three seasons.
• As opposed to the typical swing season stats of SG: Easy Scoring Conditions, Birdie or Better %, or Wedge Proximity, I’m choosing to take most of these auxiliary scoring stats from Bogey Avoidance, SG: ARG, and Scrambling. Bonus points if they’ve had prior success worldwide, particularly in Japan. We’ve seen a fair amount of leaderboard crossover in the first three iterations of this championship.

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

ZOZO Championship Betting Card

 

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

I love Xander Schauffele’s prospects as much as anyone, but if you’re giving me nearly double the number on the only player to rival him in my modeling, I’m taking the value proposition on Collin Morikawa. A winless 2023 has officially extended Collin’s drought to over two years since his Open Championship triumph (his last on the PGA Tour). Still, the season as a whole was far from fruitless for the 26-year-old Californian. 

Collin looks like he’s regained the peak form he had with his driver as the best player in the world two years ago (Gaining nearly 2 strokes per tournament off the tee over his last 10 starts), and if not for a certain World No. 1, Morikawa would have claimed the title as the Tour’s best iron player for the second time in his four years as a professional. 

Scheffler’s brilliance on approach largely overshadowed the fact that Collin also managed to gain over a stroke per round with his irons in 2023 (a feat only accomplished by 4 others since 2015 - Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler). As well-rounded as Xander’s game is, even he cannot reach the same ball-striking heights as Collin can at his best, and at a golf course that demands precision above all else from tee to green, Morikawa would seem to present a perfect skillset. 

Over his last 36 rounds, Collin leads this field in Total Ball-Striking, GIR %, Good Drive %, and Fairway %, whilst rating inside the top 5 in Birdie Chances Created, SG: APP, and SG: Total. As always with Collin Morikawa outright bets, the putter could completely derail the week, but Collin’s also shown a bit of improvement in recent weeks with the flat stick: over the last four months, he’s actually been gently above the Tour average from a Strokes Gained standpoint (+1.9 SG: Putting in six starts), and he’s actually been a tour average putter on bent grass over the last three seasons. 

Simply put, I see both of these American thoroughbreds as compelling options this week, but at nearly double the outright number, there’s simply not enough to separate Xander from Collin around this track. If Collin brings his A-Game, there’s no reason he can’t finally break that winning seal in his father’s country of origin.

 

Keegan Bradley (28-1)

With Tom Kim, Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy all successfully defending titles within the last year, why not back Keegan Bradley to repeat his trick across the Pacific just 12 months later? Especially considering at 28-1, we’re getting a pretty comparable number to the closing line of 33 he went off at in 2022 - and this time, we’re not chasing a guy in the midst of a 4+ year-long winless drought.

Keegan’s 2023 has had its disappointments (particularly missing 2/4 cuts in the Major Championships and at the PLAYERS), but he’s also noticeably improved the aspect of his game that has historically caused him the greatest career headaches. Over the last 12 months, Keegan Bradley has undeniably become a Top 20 putter on the entire PGA Tour.

He’s gained nearly half a shot per round on the greens over the course of the season, and over the last four months (since the Tour transitioned into a bentgrass-dominated part of the country), Keegan has gained over 4 shots per tournament on the greens - which would legitimately make him one of the best putters in the world. This newfound weapon has dramatically increased his week-to-week baseline (just 6 starts worse than 40th since the Farmers in January), and he’s done it all without his A+ stuff from tee to green. 

Keegan ranked 46th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2023, which is crazily his worst season-long ranking in this statistic since his rookie year in 2011. Keegan’s long been considered one of the best ball-strikers on the planet, and now that he’s cured his putting woes, the upside is tantalizing should regain the form he showed for over a decade at this level. 

Perhaps Narashino is the perfect track to get him off the mat, as Bradley has finished 1st, 7th, and 13th here in three starts (the only player in this event’s history to have three finishes inside the Top 25). Keegan’s precision-based play style is tailor-made for the Japanese design philosophy, and he may be the biggest example we have of positive/negative splits by grass type. Of the 17 occasions in his career in which he’s gained >4 shots for the week with his putter, 12 have come on bent grass - with 5 of his 6 professional victories coming on this surface as well.

At 36 years young, I genuinely believe Keegan is in for a breakout 2024 - with legitimate potential to contend for some of the biggest titles in our sport. I have no idea why he’s being priced as the 9th/10th name on betting boards, but we’ll gladly take the price break at 28-1 and move on our way.

Adam Scott (28-1)

In a similar vein to Keegan, Adam Scott spent most of 2023 refining the worst part of his historical profile. Gaining over nearly half a stroke per round over the course of the season, Scott officially recorded the best statistical putting season of his career, and since the start of May, Adam trailed just six players in SG: Putting per round on the entire PGA Tour. 

Unlike Keegan though, Adam was also able to take steps forward in the rest of his game as well, as Scott jumped in the PGA Tour tee-to-green rankings for the second consecutive year (79th -> 66th -> 45th). This across-the-board improvement provided him with some real chances to win down the stretch of 2023, as he recorded finishes of 5th, 8th, 9th, and 7th within the last three months of the 2023 campaign. 

The best performance of Scott’s season, however, came just one month ago at the DP World Tour’s flagship event at Wentworth. Scott finished in a tie for seventh against a field full of European Ryder Cup stars, DP World Tour ringers, and a few PGA regulars who’ve been known to make waves across the world in their offseasons (Tom Kim, Billy Horschel, Aaron Rai, etc.). Scott gained 12.96 strokes from tee-to-green that week (3rd in the field behind Fleetwood and Hatton), and recorded the best iron week he’s had since the 2022 Memorial (+6.68).

Scott’s been known to be one of golf’s most well-traveled ambassadors (winning events in 8 different countries in his storied career). I’m sure he’d love to add Tokyo to the list of his career world tour. With the way his games coming around, I think the 43-year-old has at least one big trick left in him.

 

Joel Dahmen (85-1)

There aren’t a lot of names I can say I truly believe in past 40-1 in this field, but when a player gains over 10 strokes from tee to green in his previous start, he’s at least worth a look at an inflated number. After a promising 2022 Fall Swing that included five finishes inside the top 20, Joel Dahmen’s game fell off a cliff to start 2023. From February to September, Dahmen missed 11 of 19 cuts and failed to record a finish better than 41st in a seven-month span on Tour. It was absolutely unfathomable for a guy that had finished 10th in a U.S. Open the summer before. 

However, with a new season comes fresh opportunities, and in three starts this fall, Joel has thrust himself back into the PGA limelight. He followed up a 13th finish at the Sanderson Farms with a 7th last week at the Shriner’s Open - recording the third-best ball-striking week of his entire career around TPC Summerlin. Dahmen gained 5.4 shots OTT and 4.6 on Approach over four rounds in Vegas, and found himself tied for the lead with five holes to play. Joel has always excelled on shorter, positional venues like Harbour Town, Mayakoba, Pebble Beach, etc, and a 16th-place finish last year at Narashino proves he’s perfectly capable of carrying his game across the Pacific. 

It’s a big ask for one of the PGA Tour’s preeminent underdogs to topple the titans at the top of this odds board, but there’s frankly not a ton of guys capable of the ball-striking feats we saw from Dahmen last week (not to mention the +6.5 shots he gained three starts ago at Wyndham). One thing’s for sure, if he does pull this thing out, we’ll be in for a hell of a celebration on the next season of Full Swing.

 

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

 

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