Overvalued Fantasy Football Veterans for 2024 - Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, Aaron Jones, more

 

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce has long been a dominant force in fantasy football, consistently finishing as the top tight end and a reliable target for Patrick Mahomes. However, heading into this season, Kelce's high draft position might not align with the potential risks he carries.

At 34 years old, Kelce is reaching an age where even the most elite athletes begin to experience a decline in performance. A decline was noticed last season; despite still finishing as a top tight-end option, Kelce finished with under 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015 and saw only five touchdowns when he totaled 12 the year before. Notable additions to the Chiefs offense include Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy. Both wideouts are expected to be a big part of the offense this season. 

With new, younger talent emerging and Mahomes potentially spreading the ball around more, Kelce's target share might not be as guaranteed as in previous years. Sitting right now as the No. 2 tight end on most player rankings, the return price for the veteran is too high, and Kelce would need to realistically climb back up to 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns this season for fantasy managers to get the return value on his high ADP.

Additionally, the wear and tear from years of intense play and heavy usage in Kansas City's offense could start to take its toll. While his production last season was stellar, there was a clear drop-off from previous seasons, and the odds of maintaining such high-level output decreased as age and cumulative hits caught up. While Kelce remains an elite talent, the high draft capital required to secure him this year comes with substantial risk, making him a potentially overvalued asset in fantasy drafts.

Are you drafting Travis Kelce as the TE1 this season? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/rIRD4luLHN

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) July 24, 2024

 

Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears

Keenan Allen, a staple in PPR leagues due to his reliable hands and route-running prowess, is entering the season with significant questions surrounding his draft value. Now 32 years old and on a new team, Allen has shown signs of wear, with injuries limiting his availability and effectiveness in recent seasons.

His declining speed and a series of nagging injuries raise concerns about his ability to perform at the elite level fantasy managers consistently have come to expect. There is no question that when Allen is on the field, he is one of the best wideouts in the league, but he has missed 12 total games in the last three seasons. In his final season with the Chargers, Allen caught 108 passes for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Allen is now a part of the Chicago Bears' offensive system and the quarterback play further muddies the waters for Allen’s fantasy value. Caleb Williams comes into Chicago as a rookie quarterback, which of course means expected learning curves that can alter Allen's consistency. As the Bears continue to develop their young quarterback and integrate new offensive pieces, the passing game’s consistency and volume remain uncertain. Allen's role in this evolving offense, coupled with the emergence of younger, faster wide receivers, could limit his target share and opportunities. 

The Bears currently have three talented wideouts on the roaster, including DJ Moore and top rookie selection Rome Odunze. It's been known that wide receivers tend to underperform with rookie quarterbacks and that mixed in with Allen lining up alongside other high-level talent in the offense could hurt his week-to-week outcome.

Allen is currently being drafted around the fourth and fifth rounds, which, in past years, would be a steal for him, but even his current ADP is too high for my liking. While his name recognition and past success may tempt managers to draft him early, the combination of age, injury history, and an unsettled offensive environment suggest that Allen may be overvalued at his current ADP.

Keenan Allen vs Jaylon Johnsonpic.twitter.com/oooNLpS7hr

— Dave (@dave_bfr) July 27, 2024

 

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones has been a reliable fantasy asset for years, known for his explosive plays and dual-threat capabilities out of the backfield. However, as he enters his age-29 season, there are several reasons to be cautious about drafting him at his current high ADP.

Running backs approaching 30 often face a decline in production due to the physical demands of the position, and Jones is no exception. His touches and efficiency might begin to wane as the wear and tear of multiple seasons in the NFL take their toll. In just 11 games played last season, Jones recorded 652 rushing yards, but just two touchdowns. Additionally, with the emergence of younger backfield talent, his workload could be reduced to preserve his health and effectiveness.

Furthermore, the Vikings' offensive situation adds another layer of uncertainty to Jones' value. The Vikings offense will not be as clean as it has been in past years. The game script will hurt Jones significantly as the Vikings are projected to be underdogs in most games this season, which means the team could see itself down more games than none. That would hurt Jones' chance to see more touches.

With changes in the offensive line and a potential shift in the team's offensive philosophy, Jones' role may not be as secure or productive as in previous seasons. The presence of other capable running backs could lead to a more committee-based approach, diminishing his fantasy ceiling. While Jones' past performances and big-play ability make him an appealing option, the combination of age-related decline, competition for touches, and an evolving offensive landscape suggests he may not live up to his high draft price this season.

Does Aaron Jones still have it? 🤔 🏈 pic.twitter.com/hoqfhLhiOt

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) April 17, 2024

 

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams has been one of the most dominant wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, consistently delivering top-tier production thanks to his elite route running, hands, and connection with his quarterbacks. However, as he enters his age-31 season with the Las Vegas Raiders, there are significant concerns that make him a potentially overvalued pick in fantasy drafts. This isn't me thinking that Adams will be a horrible fantasy option, but currently being drafted in the second round, the risk is higher than the reward.

The most pressing issue is the uncertainty at the quarterback position following Derek Carr's departure last season. With either Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew II under center, Adams' target volume and quality of targets could suffer, impacting his overall production.

Adams' advancing age and the natural decline that comes with it cannot be ignored. Wide receivers often see a drop-off in performance in their early thirties, and while Adams has defied the odds so far, the risk of injury and reduced explosiveness increases each season. A good example could be Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, or even Antonio Brown. At some point, age catches up. While his talent and track record make him a tempting early-round pick, the combination of quarterback uncertainty, age-related decline, and a less stable offensive environment suggest that Adams might not justify his high draft position this year.

Early fades at current fantasy ADP:

-Puka Nacua: 100 targets vs. 99 for Kupp when both healthy
-Davante Adams: QB room, age, declining efficiency
-Zamir White: Prefer Montgomery/Conner at cost
-Kenneth Walker: O-line + scoring + volume concerns
-CJ Stroud: FANTASY, not real life

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 18, 2024

 

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett has been a reliable and productive wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks, known for his big-play ability and strong chemistry with past quarterback Russell Wilson and current quarterback Geno Smith. However, as Lockett enters his age-31 season, several factors could make him an overvalued pick in fantasy drafts this year.

Age-related decline is a significant concern, as wide receivers typically begin to lose some of their speed and agility in their early thirties. Lockett's game heavily relies on his ability to get downfield and create separation, and any reduction in his physical abilities could lead to a noticeable drop in his fantasy production. The emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba is something to keep an eye out for as he is expected to take a massive leap forward this season, which could bump Lockett down to the No. 3 wide receiver.

The Seahawks' evolving offensive dynamics pose additional risks to Lockett's fantasy value. Lockett's ADP isn't nearly as high as other players mentioned in the article, but his return value will be tough to match in 2024. While Lockett's past performances and rapport with the Seahawks make him a tempting pick, the combination of age, competition for targets, and an uncertain offensive strategy suggests that he may not live up to his current draft position. I'd suggest looking away from Lockett this season.

Here’s what DK Metcalf looks like in shoulder pads standing near Tyler Lockett. pic.twitter.com/k4OZBXdJCG

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) July 29, 2019

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