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Thank you for joining me today for my official DraftKings selections for this week's event. If you haven't had a chance to already, here is my Monday DraftKings article - a piece where I provided in-depth insight into my early takeaways for how the venue will play from a statistical perspective. While most of that information remains relevant, especially when discussing how I handicapped the event in my model, consider this article your final stop for all things DFS on Wednesday afternoon.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Shriners Children's Open
Here is an updated look at my model! I will be using this brand-new link until Wednesday night, and you will notice round one DraftKings pricing has been included, as well as new ownership totals and drift percentages.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Patrick Cantlay ($11,100) –I am afraid my player pool is a bit of a chalk-filled mess up top, but there are still enough leverage options that I like in all sections that I am comfortable being more aggressive than usual in two particular areas.
We all know that TPC Summerlin has credible rollover predictability regarding long-term success, and there isn't a golfer that proves that better than Patrick Cantlay. The American has a course profile that is more titillating than a Vegas strip club, providing four top-eight finishes since 2017, including a victory and back-to-back runner-up showings in 2018 and 2019. It is that sort of seductive nature of quality that will keep me raining dollars onto him in DFS builds, and I can't come up with a reason to not roster him at TPC Summerlin.
How aggressive do we want to get on Cantlay is the question? But I am fine going double my projected ownership which currently sits at 20%, and deploying him in roughly 40% of my builds. It is one of those strange weeks where I don't know if we have to get quite as aggressive with the concentrated popularity in particular sections, but if I am going that heavier route, it will be with Cantlay over the other two in this range.
Sungjae Im ($10,400) –Honestly, I don't know what to do with Sungjae Im. I realize that is not an answer anyone wants to hear when making a decision, but I can't figure out how to remove him from my pool. Does that mean we play him defensively and try to get to the field average? Do we play him around 30%? 40%? I don't know since there are $9,000 golfers that I do want exposure to this week.
If you are making limited lineups, I am okay with bypassing Im and getting more aggressive in other areas, but it comes down to the mass-entry builders and deciding what is proper. I lean towards the rare answer of playing some defense since I don't want to get burned if he wins the event, but it is one of the more challenging calls we will need to make for the Shriners.
Other Thoughts - There is too much ownership on Max Homa ($10,600) for me to think I am creating any real leverage. He will miss my player pool altogether.
$9,000 Range
Aaron Wise ($9,900) - Aaron Wise is what makes everything so difficult for me up top. Despite the ownership of Cantlay and Im, I would have been fine doubling my exposure on each if it weren't for Wise, but now I find myself in this spot where I need to structure lineups that make sense to accommodate the overweight nature of what I plan to do with the former Oregon Duck.
I like a 50/40/20ish split that allows me to get half my builds with Wise and filter in the other two to various degrees. You might need to shift those totals around marginally to account for what the rest of your player pool contains, but there is no other way around it, Wise will decide my week.
Taylor Montgomery ($9,500) - It meant something to me that Taylor Montgomery was projected to be the least owned $9,000 golfer when we removed Alex Noren from the mix. I am on a strict ownership calculation game right now to try and create some semblance of leverage, and when my model couldn't find a discernible difference between Tom Kim, Cameron Davis and Montgomery, the reduction in ownership was an easy place to start.
Alex Noren ($9,100) -I have Alex Noren as the best leverage play at $9,000 or above. Options like J.T. Poston and Maverick McNealy close the gap when we drop into some of these $8,000 selections, but this concept that Noren can't compete at a birdie shootout has gone too far, in my opinion.
The Swede ranks third in this field when we remove every course from my database and only look at easy-scoring tests, and the Bentgrass putting could work as a considerable advantage if these greens roll as purely as I believe they might.
Other Thoughts: Players like Tom Kim ($9,700) and Cam Davis ($9,200) were victims of their ownership. They might work better if you structure your pool in a different fashion than I did, but we can't play everyone.
$8,000 Range
Brian Harman ($8,900) - I believe the price tag on Brian Harman is fair at $8,900, but the perceived stance from the industry that he is overpriced will create a spot for us to utilize him as a pivot.
Harman ranks second in my model on TPC courses, inside the top 20 for the critical five holes where scoring can come in bunches and also has provided two finishes inside the top 20 at TPC Summerlin over the past three seasons. I highly considered a way to get him onto my outright card, but my favorite way to play him remains as a DFS option that provides leverage to the field.
J.T. Poston ($8,300) - J.T. Poston goes from the second betting favorite and one of the chalkier players on the board at the Sanderson Farms to a five percent owned golfer in Vegas that is nearly $2,000 cheaper. In fairness, the field is much strong, which needs to be considered for the reduction we have witnessed, but somewhere in the upper-$8,000 range feels more accurate, especially when ownership isn't heading towards Poston as a pivot choice.
All those high-end metrics that we liked about him in Mississippi will still ring true at TPC Summerlin, and he is the top-ranked golfer on my model when it comes to TPC designs over the past 50 rounds.
Maverick McNealy ($8,100) - I know the course history and form will leave something to be desired when it comes to Maverick McNealy, but 3.5% is way too shallow for a golfer who has done his best work on west coast Bentgrass greens.
The birdie-making upside is prevalent for him at a test that should allow him to use his driving acumen, and it will come down to how his irons hold up over four days. If we get the version of him that ranks 105th in weighted proximity, there is trouble, but it is important to remember that my model is looking at the complete picture and not the condensed version of only straightforward tracks.
Other Thoughts: Taylor Pendrith ($8,700) is acceptable to consider. My model liked Dean Burmester ($8,500) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,200). I wish the ownership were a little less for Keith Mitchell ($8,000), although I might still find a way to sprinkle him in here and there because of his upside. But I will mainly be using Harman, Poston and McNealy. There is no reason for me to convolute the section.
$7,000 Range
Matt Kuchar ($7,600) - The form has quietly been coming back together, as Matt Kuchar has posted 10 made cuts in his past 12 starts on tour. The TPC fit should suit the American well.
Mark Hubbard ($7,400) - Mark Hubbard has a habit of stringing together his form in back-to-back starts. Let's see if he can keep the momentum rolling after nearly taking down the Sanderson Farms last week.
Troy Merritt ($7,300) - There is hidden win equity in my model from Troy Merritt, and we see him inside the top 30 in a handful of categories, including overall rank, Bentgrass putting, TPC success and scoring on easy courses. You won't find this wager anywhere else, although it will be included for official tracking purposes, but I am adding Troy Merritt T40 at +175 on FanDuel. 0.80 units to win 1.4. It will be one of the bigger bets of the week.
Chris Kirk ($7,300) -The ownership is low enough for me to take some shots on his upside. I like that he has appeared to turn his luck around with back-to-back top 43 finishes since restarting the new season.
Andrew Putnam ($7,300) - I don't love where the ownership is trending, but there is enough safety in my model that I am willing to use him at about 1.5x the field.
Additional Options To Consider: Most would be lineup-fillers, but I do have interest for one reason or another on these nine golfers.
| Mito Pereira | $7,800 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $7,700 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,700 |
| Seamus Power | $7,600 |
| Wyndham Clark | $7,400 |
| Jason Day | $7,200 |
| Martin Laird | $7,200 |
| Robby Shelton | $7,100 |
| Justin Lower | $7,100 |
$6,000 Range (Top Options To Consider)
Michael Gligic ($6,900) - Michael Gligic's last 24 rounds compared to my baseline totals has him experiencing a massive jump. That is enticing since the two-year running data still places him 28th overall.
Brendon Todd ($6,900) - Boom-or-bust option, but Brendon Todd experiences a 39-spot increase in expected tee-to-green performance when running the model to mimic TPC Summerlin.
Beau Hossler ($6,900) - There were many years where I was picking Beau Hossler to win this event in my RotoBaller stories. He isn't where he used to be from a skill perspective, but we do see him pop sporadically on the west coast.
Austin Smotherman ($6,600), Kevin Yu ($6,500) - Both are desperation roster cloggers for me if I find myself in a pickle.
Options I am Prioritizing:
| Player | Price |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,100 |
| Sungjae Im | $10,400 |
| Aaron Wise | $9,900 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $9,500 |
| Alex Noren | $9,100 |
| Brian Harman | $8,900 |
| J.T. Poston | $8,300 |
| Maverick McNealy | $8,100 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,600 |
| Mark Hubbard | $7,400 |
| Troy Merritt | $7,300 |
| Chris Kirk | $7,300 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,300 |
| Michael Gligic | $6,900 |
| Brendon Todd | $6,900 |
| Beau Hossler | $6,900 |
You can use my model (or the other recommendations in this article) to continue to fill out your player pools.
Options I am Considering At Lower Exposure:
My player pool will be smaller this week to account for the more aggressive approach up top. Here are some options I am considering.
| Mito Pereira | $7,800 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $7,700 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,700 |
| Seamus Power | $7,600 |
| Wyndham Clark | $7,400 |
| Jason Day | $7,200 |
| Martin Laird | $7,200 |
| Robby Shelton | $7,100 |
| Justin Lower | $7,100 |
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