Fantasy Impact: The Detroit Pistons Offseason Moves

December 15, 2020

Andrew Ericksen looks at the busy offseason for the Detroit Pistons to help fantasy basketball managers find draft value on the team for the 2020-21 NBA season.

No team has been more active this offseason than the Detroit Pistons. Their current roster – apart from Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin – is almost completely different from the one they had at the end of the 2019-20 season.

Troy Weaver, who took over as the team’s general manager this past June after over a decade working within the front office of the Oklahoma City Thunder, has been acquiring and then either re-trading or outright cutting players so quickly that it’s been tough to keep track of who is still on the team.

Dewayne Dedmon, Tony Bradley and Zhaire Smith are just a small handful of the players who Weaver traded for this offseason only to release just a matter of days later. So who is left standing and what kind of fantasy value can we get out of the Pistons beyond Rose and Griffin this year?

Changes In Detroit's Backcourt

While you’re unlikely to find a fantasy stud out of the Pistons backcourt in 2020-21, there’s a good chance you can find some sneaky value out of several different players.

Last year, Derrick Rose had his best all-around season since his Chicago days, averaging 18.1 points per game and 5.6 assists per game while shooting 49% from the field. He’s certainly going to be one of the locker room leaders of this team, but there’s good reason to believe that the majority of his counting stats will be going down this year, primarily due to the presence of the team’s top draft pick, Killian Hayes.

The early indication out of Pistons camp is that Hayes will open the season as the team’s starting point guard, with Rose coming off the bench in a mentor type of role.

The 6’5” Hayes is just 19 years old and played professionally in Germany last year for Ulm, averaging 11.6 points and 5.4 assists per game. His step-back jumper is one of the most alluring aspects of his game and has led to a number of aggressively favorable James Harden comparisons.

Expect for Hayes to struggle with turnovers and field goal percentage as a rookie, but if you’re looking for a high upside player late in your draft, especially in regards to assists and steals, Hayes is a great target.

One of the players who Weaver traded for this offseason and actually kept was Delon Wright, who will be reunited in Detroit with head coach Dwayne Casey, his former coach in Toronto. Wright has seen both his role and his playing time fluctuate greatly over the years, making it hard for him to be a reliable fantasy contributor. His best statistical stretch came during a 26-game stint with Memphis in 2018-19 when he played 30 minutes per game and averaged 12.2 points per game, 5.4 rebounds per game, 5.3 assists per game and 1.6 steals per game. There’s a lot of Caris Levert-like potential in Wright’s game, but Wright has been plagued by being stuck amongst deep backcourts for most of his career so far. This year, he’ll finally have a chance to get a full year with extended playing time. He’s a great late round target for steals and he should be able to help out in assists as well.

Svi Mykhailiuk is the team’s best shooter with Luke Kennard now in Oklahoma City. Mykhailiuk might have even been the team’s best shooter last year with Kennard in town. Over 56 games last year, Mykhailiuk took 5.1 threes per game and averaged 2.1 makes per game, good for a solid 40.4% three-point percentage. The Pistons don’t have the most conducive lineup for three-point shooting as their offensive firepower is lacking, which will prevent Mykhailiuk from finding as much open space as he might find on a better offensive team. However, as far as three-point shooting upside goes in the late of deep drafts, Mykhailiuk is very much someone worth targeting.

Last, Wayne Ellington is someone who could provide additional three-point shooting upside if the team suffers a few injuries, but he isn’t worth drafting in any fantasy leagues at this point.

The Pistons Frontcourt

Blake Griffin only played in 18 games last year and they weren’t pretty. He shot just 35.2% from the field and averaged only 15.5 points per game. If Griffin can stay healthy this year, he could very well return to something similar to his 2018-19 form, which was a top-25 fantasy player. He averaged 24.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.5 threes while shooting 46.2% from the field in 2018-19. Don’t chase those exact numbers, but something that’s not too far off this year is within reason.

One of the Pistons’ biggest splashes this offseason was their signing of forward Jerami Grant. Weaver brought Grant to Detroit on a three-year, $60 million contract that certainly raised some eyebrows both in Detroit and across the league. Grant has been a phenomenal role player over the past four years with Oklahoma City and Denver and in fantasy terms, he’s been a solid, sneaky source of both threes and blocks while typically maintaining solid percentages. This year, Grant will have to adapt to having less support around him, something he hasn’t had since his first few NBA seasons in Philadelphia. Grant could see some of his counting stats reach career-best levels. Look for him to match or top his career marks in points (13.6), threes (1.4) and blocks (1.6), but his field goal percentage may take a dip to around 45% or lower.

Sekou Doumbouya was the Pistons’ first round pick in 2019. He turns 20 this December and will be looking to find more consistency after an uninspiring rookie season. To be fair to the youngster, he was thrown into a tough situation last year with little supporting help after Griffin went down. Doumbouya has received a lot of Pascal Siakam comparisons due to his size, length and agility. He can create a bit on his own and he has shown some flashes of explosiveness, just ask Tristan Thompson about it.

However, he still has a long way to go and we may not see his game flesh out for another year or two still.

A more intriguing sleeper in this group – as far as the 2020-21 fantasy season is concerned – is Josh Jackson, who signed a two-year contract worth about $10 million this offseason. The fourth overall pick of the 2017 NBA Draft, Jackson has been a clear bust three years into his NBA career, but at 23 years old, he still could have a chance to find a role in the league and the Pistons offer him the perfect opportunity to get his career back on track. Jackson is an athletic wing with a 6’10” wingspan who could be a solid three-and-D guy if he can put it together. He’s too much of a reach to consider drafting in fantasy leagues at this point, but keep him on your radar as a waiver wire target throughout the early going of the season.

Detroit Center City

Mason Plumlee signed a three-year, $25 million deal to join the Pistons this offseason and will be the team’s starting center. Plumlee saw his minutes go down in Denver from 21 per game in 2018-19 to 17 per game in 2019-20, but this year he should see his playing time spike to an all-time high, or something close to it. In his best fantasy season, with the Trail Blazers in 2016-17, Plumlee averaged 11.1 points per game, 8.0 rebounds per game, 4.0 assists per game and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 53.2% from the field. He played a career-high 28 minutes per game that year. This year’s numbers shouldn’t be too far off, though he might struggle to reach his 2016-17 field goal percentage or assists average. Regardless, he’s a great late-round target for rebounds and blocks.

Behind Plumlee are the recently-signed veteran Jahlil Okafor and rookie first round pick Isiah Stewart. Okafor is in a similar situation to Josh Jackson, though as a 2015 top-3 pick, his saga is longer and even more publicized than Jackson’s. Okafor had a few flashes of fantasy relevance over his past two years with New Orleans. He shot 62.3% from the field over 15 minutes per game last year. His defense remains a massive liability – as does his free throw shooting – but he can score a lot of points quickly when he gets the playing time.

Stewart, meanwhile, was a five-star recruit out of high school and was 2019’s Mr. Basketball USA. He played one year of college basketball at Washington – averaging 17 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game – before declaring for the NBA. This year, he’s unlikely to see more than around 10 minutes per game, but he could prove to be a key member of the team in years to come.

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