RADIO
This is our second and final edition of this series talking about some of the biggest fantasy football winners and losers from day two of the NFL Draft. If you'd like to read the first installment where some of the biggest fantasy football winners were identified, you can read that here. Here, we're going to be spotlighting some of the biggest fantasy football losers from the second day of the NFL Draft.
These players ended up landing on teams that will greatly deter their immediate fantasy football success for one reason or another. Often times there is not just one reason why a landing spot is unfriendly. Often times there are several reasons, but regardless the following players are unlikely to provide fantasy managers with much value this season as long as the status quo stays the same. Certainly, an injury could derail this all, but that cannot be predicted.
Below there are six players from rounds two and three of the NFL Draft whose immediate fantasy football success is very much in question and below we'll go into detail as to why fantasy managers should be skeptical of expecting too much from any of the players listed.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
When the Seattle Seahawks went on the clock with pick No. 52, addressing the running back position certainly seemed to be very low on the list. They already drafted Kenneth Walker in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft and he went on to finish second in the offensive Rookie of the Year polling just last year.
Walker ended up taking over for injured starter, Rashaad Penny and finished the 2022 season with 1,215 total yards and 9 touchdowns on 255 touches and 11 starts. By almost every account, Seattle had one of the best young rushers on their team already.
“For fantasy, this is a horrible outcome for both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.” pic.twitter.com/jRQegvcv3m
— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) May 3, 2023
Understandably, after losing Penny and Travis Homer in free agency, they needed to round out their depth chart behind Walker, but with such a high selection? Charbonnet now enters a situation where he’s highly unlikely to become the starter this year, next, or even the following season after that. Given just how successful Walker was in his rookie season, it’s hard to imagine Charbonnet becoming a fantasy starter short of a Walker injury.
Last year, the Seahawks running backs had 418 touches of which just 67 came in the form of receptions. They finished collectively with 2,154 yards and 12 touchdowns. Head coach Pete Carroll talked about Charbonnet’s ability in the passing game, which could become his primary role as this was an area Walker struggled with in college.
If Charbonnet takes on 35% of the carries from last year, he’d finish with 123 and if he had 60% of the receptions, he’d finish with 40. That put him right around 160 touches. If he has a 4.9-yard per-touch average, he’d have roughly 785 yards. That could him some low-level flex appeal in full-PPR leagues, but ultimately that’s about the best he’s going to be as long as Walker is healthy. He is, however, one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.
Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos
It’s hard to get too excited about this landing spot either and it’s a tough situation for Marvin Mims. Courtland Sutton is signed through the 2025 season, Tim Patrick is signed through 2024, and Greg Dulcich is signed through 2025. Jerry Jeudy just had his fifth-year option picked up and is the most talented of the bunch. The team has shot down trade rumors involving Jeudy, which could mean they’d like to keep him in Denver.
In 2022, Sutton averaged 7.27 targets per game, Jeudy was at 6.67, and Dulcich was at 5.50. The last time we saw Patrick in 2021, he averaged 5.31 targets per game. Don’t forget just how involved running backs have been in Sean Payton’s offense and it becomes almost impossible to see where Mims can carve out any kind of meaningful role in 2022 assuming none of them are traded and Patrick is healthy, which at this time, seems to be the most likely outcome.
All of this target competition is to say nothing about just how far the Denver offense needs to go just to become league average. They finished 32nd in total points scored and 21st in total yards. The passing attack also left much to be desired, finishing 19th in yards and 23rd in touchdowns.
Mims was a darling of the analytical community during the pre-draft process and he was a consistent producer at Oklahoma. Since 2020, he has amassed 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on an incredibly impressive 19.5 yard per reception average. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have much history of being able to earn targets and the situation in Denver involves a crowder group of pass-catchers who could end up being with the team for the next few years.
Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns
There isn't a whole lot to love about this landing spot, at least not initially. Last year, Amari Cooper finished with 132 targets. Donovan Peoples-Jones had 96 of his own and tight end David Njoku finished with 80 despite missing three games. He had been on pace for 97. That's some pretty stiff target competition for a rookie. Then this offseason the Browns traded for the former 2021 second-round pick, Elijah Moore from the New York Jets. Before he had a falling out with the organization this past season, he averaged seven targets per game as a rookie, which is a pace of 119 targets over 17 games.
Horrible landing spot for Cedric Tillman. Crowded receiver room for a predominantly run-first offense. Targets will be very inconsistent.
— Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar) April 29, 2023
Tillman profiles as an X-receiver, the same position as Donovan Peoples-Jones, however, there's little reason to think DPJ is at risk of losing his job. He put together the most successful season of his career last year finishing with 61 receptions and 839 yards. Cooper will continue to operate as the team's Z-receiver, while Moore will be the slot receiver. This puts Tillman fourth on the depth chart without even mentioning Njoku.
Tillman was one of the few receivers in this class who profiles as a true X-receiver, as many of the others are smaller, slot receivers, so there was potential a team could've tagged him as an early starter, but that will not happen this year in Cleveland. While I am optimistic Deshaun Watson will get back to the Watson we became accustomed to seeing in Houston, there's no guarantee that will happen, which makes this landing spot even more concerning.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
It's hard not to love Josh Downs. The college production is there, the analytical profile, the high athleticism, and the game film all point to an upper-tier talent who has the skill to be an early producer in the NFL. However, like most players, especially the truly exceptional ones, he needed to find himself in a good spot. Not a great spot mind you, just a good one. That's basically the exact opposite of what happened here. The Colts are one of the worst landing spots for a receiver this year.
They already have Michael Pittman on their team, who has earned 270 targets in the past two seasons and has secured 187 of them. That's an alpha, folks. They also have 2022 second-round receiver Alec Pierce on the roster as well. He largely operated as the team's downfield threat, which isn't likely to change in 2023, but he's another player who will make it incredibly difficult for Downs to earn the kind of volume he needs to be productive.
If that wasn't bad enough, the quarterback play can be reasonably expected to be some of the worst in the NFL. Either they're going to start veteran Gardner Minshew, or they'll start the rookie Anthony Richardson. Either option does not bode well for the Colts' passing game. Richardson, while he might have an unlimited ceiling, the consensus opinion is that he's a bit of a project and will struggle to throw the football in year one. After all, he made just 13 starts at the University of Florida before being drafted.
Given the team's quarterback situation, one can reasonably assume the coaching staff would very much like to lean on Jonathan Taylor and their running game. That makes a lot of sense, as it'll take some of the pressure off of either quarterback. However, if they're able to accomplish this, Downs may end up suffering from a trifecta of negative factors: poor quarterback play, low passing volume, and target competition.
Since Downs profiles as a full-time slot receiver, he'll often come off the field when the team moves to 12-personnel sets, opting to go with the size of Pierce who offers more run-blocking potential. Limited snaps mean fewer routes, which means fewer target opportunities. There are just far too many obstacles for Downs to provide any fantasy value in year one.
Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers
Darnell Washington had garnered some first-round buzz due to his massive size and athleticism. He has the tools and the strength to essentially operate as a team’s sixth offensive lineman while also being an incredible mismatch in the passing game. Due to his size and speed combination, he has the tools to become a tackle-breaking maven in the right situation. Unfortunately, there are significant concerns that Pittsburgh is not the right place for him to do that.
Offensive coordinator Matt Canada has been at the helm of the Pittsburgh offense for two seasons, and in both years, they finished 23rd in total yards. In 2021, they were 21st in points before falling down to 26th in 2022. His passing offenses have ranked fourth in attempts in 2021, but just 15th in yards and 16th in touchdowns. Despite ample volume, the efficiency waned. In 2022 with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, the offense ranked 16th in attempts, but once again finished significantly below that in both yards (24th) and touchdowns (32nd). How much faith can you put in him?
There’s also a Kenny Pickett problem. Granted, it was his first year under center, but he put up just a 2.0% touchdown rate and had one of the worst quarterback ratings in the NFL. In fact, his rating was just 3.9 percentage points better than Zach Wilson. He averaged just 185 yards per game and a pathetically low 0.54 touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, that would equate to 3,145 passing yards and nine touchdowns. That is alarmingly bad and a significant increase is needed just to be mildly bad.
This is all to say nothing about the fact the team already has Diontae Johnson who has averaged 153 targets over the past three years or 2022 second-round rookie, George Pickens who just finished 52 catches and 801 yards. Oh, and then there’s Pat Freiermuth. Among tight ends last year, he ranked sixth with 6.13 targets per game. In his first two seasons as a pro, he’s racked up 123 catches and 1,229 yards. In other words, Washington better like blocking because that’s just about all he’s going to be doing for the next four years.
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
Long-term, this landing spot isn't all that bad. Jamaal Williams clearly isn't the answer for the Saints in the future. Alvin Kamara will also turn 28 this year and has an incredibly expensive contract the Saints could want to get rid of in the next few years. That could give Kendre Miller the potential to eventually earn the starting job in New Orleans. However, we're still, at the minimum, 1–2 years away from that, and by that time, it seems reasonable the team may have added another running back as well.
Long-term potential aside, it's hard to see a scenario where Miller is offering any kind of fantasy value in 2023. The Saints not only have Williams and Kamra, but they have Taysom Hill too, yoinking touchdowns. Last year, the Saints opted to use Kamara as more of a traditional running back, with the highest amount of carries he's ever had in his career. This season, with the signing of Williams, it seems like they want to get Kamara back in his previous role, which is great for his fantasy potential.
Kamara will operate as the primary running back and will lead the team in touches, but it seems like we can assume he'll be more involved in the passing game this season. To offset his return to normal passing involvement, the Saints brought in Williams to handle some of the early-down plodding. Between the two of them, the Saints seem to have a strong 1–2 punch that really complements each other well. This will leave little left over for Miller and it's possible whatever is left, will go to Hill. Especially the red zone work.
We can't talk about Kamara without touching on his potential suspension, which seems likely at this point. However, since this is Kamara's first incident, it would seem that a 4–6 game suspension is the maximum, however, at this time, that's nothing more than an educated guess. Miller's value could increase during any week Kamara is suspended, but once he returns Miller should be viewed as nothing more than strictly a backup running back with limited handcuff potential since the Saints already have two primary running backs ahead of him.
Miller had the talent and college production to produce early, even if that meant he was the lesser option in a committee, but in New Orleans, as long as Kamara is active, he won't even be that. He'll be on the outside looking into the Saints' running back by committee.
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