Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Comeback Mode: Upside Plays for Post-Thursday Lineup Deficits


On Fridays after a Thursday night game, fantasy owners tend to get anxious if they have fallen behind after one game has wrapped. That is usually an overreaction, as the results of one single game are not a true indication of where their matchup's final score will end up.

But after three games have been played on Thanksgiving, you may have more of a sense of desperation than usual if your team has fallen behind by 20-plus points. If you are facing a large deficit, you may want to strongly consider using guys with higher statistical ceilings. In tight decisions, you can lean toward the Sunday and Monday players with higher projected upsides for Week 13. We will provide you with such selections here but keep in mind that there may be substantial risk involved, as they may have a lower statistical floor.

For added reassurance, though, we have provided point projections from the RotoBaller lineup optimizer where applicable. Seasonal players should always consult the tool’s projections to help them make challenging lineup decisions. DFS players always want upside, and the optimizer is where you will find it. You can get the optimizer as part of the RotoBaller NFL season pass, which is already slashed in price for the Fantasy playoff push, and using promo code KING will get you another additional discount.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

Running Back Comeback Plays

Todd Gurley vs. ARI (projection: 16.42 points): Gurley is no slam dunk play here, as he has rushed for more than 75 yards just twice this season and has only 21 total receptions. But Arizona always presents a fine matchup for RBs and the optimizer projection should boost your confidence in him for this week.

Phillip Lindsay vs. LAC (14.42): Lindsay always has the opportunity to score a touchdown, and the Chargers have allowed the fourth-most Fantasy Points Per Game in the AFC to RBs this season.

Miles Sanders vs. MIA (12.90): The matchup lure is obvious. Sanders has a low floor, but can be explosive and has the potential to score from anywhere on the field. He is a top example of a home run type of play for this week, as he has yet to deliver the true breakout game we have been waiting for but has the skillset and matchup to make that happen this week. He is a boom-or-bust gamble at the RB position.

Kenyan Drake vs. LAR (12.46): Even though Chase Edmonds is returning and David Johnson could be back in the mix, Drake has a better health outlook than either of them, with big-play potential to boot.

Jonathan Williams vs. TEN: The Titans have allowed the fifth-most FFPG in the AFC to RBs over the past month, and Williams is riding high coming into this matchup with two consecutive 100-yard games.

Darrel Williams vs. OAK: He might be the lead RB for the Chiefs with Damien Williams out and LeSean McCoy looking at a limited workload. It’s a good matchup for a determined and versatile RB.

The Optimizer Also Recommends: Joe Mixon (12.68), Ronald Jones II (11.43).

 

Wide Receiver Comeback Plays

Tyler Boyd vs. NYJ (14.74): Boyd re-emerged last week to find the end zone and notch 100-yards. The return of Andy Dalton boosts his outlook once again. The Jets have allowed the most FFPG in the AFC to WRs this season.

Robert Woods vs. ARI (13.04): This is a hard one to get behind at first glance, considering the Rams have played extremely poorly as of late and Woods still has a zero in his touchdown column. But the call here comes more from my trust in the optimizer, as I've been burned often before when doubting the tool. The Cardinals have also given up the fourth-most FFPG to WRs over the past month.

Jamison Crowder vs. CIN (13.01): Crowder is the Jets’ most reliable WR, capable of racking up a large number of catches and scoring in any given week. The Jets offense is clicking right now and you can start him with a lot of confidence this week.

Dede Westbrook vs. TB (12.20): Westbrook could have his best game of the year against the most generous team to WRs in terms of FFPG allowed.

Darius Slayton vs. GB (11.93): Slayton jumps out from the optimizer with a Top 20 projection at the position. He is definitely the big-play man in the passing game for the Giants. Injuries to so many other pass-catchers on the team could push Slayton into a more prominent role this week.

Tyrell Williams vs. KC (11.69): Williams has no TDs in the past four games and has not been quite the same since he returned from an injury in Week 8. But this a big AFC West matchup and a chance for the Raiders to tie for the division lead, so Williams must make plays for Oakland to remain competitive this week.

D.K. Metcalf vs. MIN: Metcalf had his worst game as a pro so far last week, but the Seahawks will get him involved again, setting Metcalf up for splash plays and multi-touchdown upside.

The Optimizer Also Recommends: Devante Parker (14.11), Christian Kirk (13.56), Sterling Shepard (12.55), Terry McLaurin (11.88).

 

Quarterback Comeback Plays

Carson Wentz vs. MIA (19.05): The optimizer has him projected as the sixth-highest scoring QB of the week. Alshon Jeffery is returning, and if Zach Ertz plays Wentz is a prime upside play despite his recent struggles.

Jared Goff (18.25): Perhaps the riskiest call of all here, as Goff has not thrown a TD pass in November and there is no apparent reason to have confidence in him. But the Cardinals have allowed the most FFPG to QBs over the past month.

Nick Foles vs, TB (18.10): Fols has quality WRs and a great matchup but has been historically mediocre as a fantasy passer. He's a true gamble.

Sam Darnold vs. CIN (18.08): The Bengals have allowed the most FFPG in the AFC to QBs this season and Darnold is playing well now that there is no pressure to make the postseason.

The Optimizer Also Recommends: Daniel Jones (17.22), Ryan Tannehill (17.00). Jimmy Garoppolo (16.65).

 

Tight End Comeback Plays

Kyle Rudolph vs. SEA: He is a must-start considering his recent re-emergence and the fact that Seattle allows the third-most FFPG to TEs.

Jack Doyle vs. TEN (10.17): Doyle has to play a much larger role in the Colts passing game with injuries having totally destroyed the rest of the receiving corps.

Tyler Higbee vs. ARI: With Gerald Everett ruled out, Higbee could pay off in the most friendly TE draw possible. The optimizer appears to be high on Goff, so Higbee should perform well, too.

The Optimizer Also Recommends: Greg Olsen (9.98)

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Surprises of 2019: Running Back

The 2019 NFL season was an interesting year for the running back position. Christian McCaffrey was the overall RB1, but some of the other top players fell below expectations. That led to some interesting final results when the final season standings came around. And while some of those -- Dalvin Cook as the RB3, Leonard... Read More


Quarterback VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The 2019 fantasy football season is over. That is not something we like to say considering the empty path we have ahead of us until we reach draft season again in eight months. The good thing about it, though, is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few weeks... Read More


2019 RotoBaller NFL Challenge - And The @Fleaflicker Winner Is...

What a season, RotoBallers. Fantasy football is always a fun, interesting, and long season - filled with injuries, breakout players, and different strategies. It takes stamina and endurance to win the marathon, and we're here today to recognize those who pulled it off. With 343 teams - across two divisions - competing to be crowned champ... Read More


Introducing the 2020 Rookie Tight End Class

Out of all the skill positions, tight end is the one where rookies have the most issue making an immediate impact. But there's still always some value at every position in every NFL Draft, and the 2020 one is no exception, even if people are very down on this year's crop of tight ends. Let's... Read More


Can a New Coach Fix Baker Mayfield in 2020?

Another season has passed and another disappointment by Browns fans has been realized. Baker Mayfield got the head coach he wanted in Freddie Kitchens in 2019. In 2020, hopefully he's got the one he needs in Kevin Stefanski. Last season, under Kitchens, Mayfield had a coach he could control and manipulate. He did just that... Read More


Wide Receiver VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The one (and only) good thing about fantasy football season ending is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few months and put performances into context to prepare for next season. As football is an ever-evolving game, though, it makes sense to assess how good players were in fantasy... Read More


The King's Keeper Corner: NFL Postseason Impacts on Player Outlooks

With a break in the postseason NFL action, it is time to reflect on what we have seen in the playoffs so far and how certain performances will affect fantasy football outlooks in keeper and dynasty formats. How players respond and what they deliver at the most intense and critical times of the season can... Read More


Introducing Value Over Starter Football Metrics

When it comes to fantasy sports, we're always looking for the highest possible Return On Investment or ROI. This concept is easy to understand: in both Daily Fantasy and re-draft/fantasy leagues, ROI would come down to how many points a player returns relative to his salary, or the price you paid (given his ADP on... Read More


Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Quarterback

2019 was a very interesting season of fantasy football, to say the least. It's safe to say no one was banking on the season that we saw from Lamar Jackson but he wasn't the only one to stand out. At the quarterback position, we saw some really exciting players start to shine and some older... Read More


Goodbye Runners, Hello Pass-Catching RBs: 2019 Season Trends

As the 2019 summer kept going we all had two things in our minds with regard to September's fantasy drafts and both of them were related to running backs: Where in the world are Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and when will they be back? It made sense back then (and it still does now,... Read More


Where Does 2019 Rank Historically Among ADP Movers?

I have worked on a season-review series of articles in which I have analyzed the biggest winners and losers in terms of ADP entering draft season compared to the end of the year final results. It was plenty of fun looking back at the gambles most of us took which ultimately paid off, but also... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Tight End

2019 was not the record-breaking season for tight ends 2018 was. San Francisco’s George Kittle (most receiving yards for a TE in a season) and Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz (most receptions for a TE in a season) did not break the records they set last season, although both were fine for fantasy players. Kansas City’s Travis... Read More


Rushing Quarterbacks Are Becoming Necessary

The 2019 fantasy season is over. We are all thinking about what to do come 2020 draft day. So let me ask you something. What if I offer you the chance of drafting a quarterback who is a lock to finish the season with 270 fantasy points? Would you take him and make him your... Read More


Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More