RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose trade value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Before getting into this week's risers and fallers, I wanted to take a moment to pay tribute to the great Michael "Tags" Tagliere. This is my first article since his passing, and I'd be remiss not to dedicate the column to not only one of the best fantasy analysts out there, but to one of the most kind, caring, and respectful individuals I've had the chance to connect with.
Tags always went out of his way to make people feel welcomed. I know that's how I felt getting a Slack message from him when I joined the FantasyPros team back in February 2020. All he did was say hey, happy to have you on board, let me know if there's ever anything I can do for you or if there's anything you want to chat about. A guy with 75,000 Twitter followers took the time to reach out to me, and for that, I felt welcomed and appreciated from Day One. All it took was a simple, yet powerful message.
Earlier in the offseason, during a Clubhouse chat, I asked Tags a question about what to make of the 49ers' backfield heading into the 2021 season. Should we trust Raheem Mostert, or should we be taking Jeff Wilson Jr. much later? And might the Niners address the running back position in the Draft? Tags' response was spot on, just like all of his advice. It was something like..."It's the 49ers, we can't really trust what Kyle Shanahan is going to do on a weekly basis. Mostert should lead this backfield when healthy, but Shanahan has been known to change things up in the blink of an eye." He also very much expected them to prioritize the running back position in the Draft, which they did by taking Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell.
His answer was not only spot on, but we're seeing it play out right in front of our eyes on a weekly basis. It's as if he could predict the future. Just like many of the people reading this article, I wish I could message Tags and tell him how right he was. He would probably say thank you in the most humble way possible and deflect credit because that's the kind of guy he was. Rest in Peace Tags, your stamp has and will forever be left on the fantasy football community.
Risers and Fallers
Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season is officially in the books. Just like in Weeks 1 and 2, overreactions will undoubtedly be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 4 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 3 of the NFL season.
Fantasy Football Risers
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
This guy consistently outperforms expectations and is never giving the credit he deserves. Through three games, Cousins is completing 73.9% of his passes for 306 yards per game. He's thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions and currently owns a 118.3 QBR. Next up is two matchups at home in the dome. First, a game against the Cleveland Browns, which boasts an o/u of 51.5 points. After that, a favorable matchup against division-rival Detroit Lions. Captain Kirk has become a bit more than just a streamable option in fantasy football.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson (knee) didn't play in Week 3 and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ribs) had to leave the game after playing just 40% of the snaps. As far as wide receivers go, Chase Claypool was the primary beneficiary. He ran 53 routes on 92% of the snaps after averaging just 29 routes run on 72% of the snaps the previous two weeks. He turned that usage into 15 targets. Granted, he was still held under 100 yards and scoreless, but if Johnson and Smith-Schuster continue to miss time, Claypool (and Najee Harris) will continue to be peppered with targets by Ben Roethlisberger.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Since Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2, Waddle has been his favorite target, sporting a team-high 23.8% target share. He saw a team-high 13 targets in a competitive Week 3 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Brissett only averaged 4.4 yards per attempt, but Waddle looks to be his safety blanket, which bodes well for the rookie, especially in PPR formats. He did this despite the presence of newly-acquired Will Fuller V, who returned to the team after a one-game suspension and a personal matter.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
It's clear who has become the alpha WR1 in Carolina -- it's D.J. Moore. Through three weeks, he's averaging 10.3 targets and 95 yards per game. He has only found the end zone once, yet is still the WR9 in PPR leagues. Per PlayerProfiler, Moore ranks 10th in Air Yards (332) and ninth in Air Yards Share (43.1%). And with Christian McCaffrey out in Week 3, Moore's targets per route run (TPRR) was the highest it's been all season at 35.3%. Sam Darnold finally has a true alpha to throw the ball to and Moore should continue to capitalize on those opportunities.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Hunt has now played two games the last two seasons without Jarvis Landry in the lineup. In those two games, he's averaged six targets on 20.5 routes run per game. And that's with playing on just 40% of the snaps. For as great as Nick Chubb is as a runner, he has yet to play more than 57% of the snaps in any one game this season. Hunt now has 11 targets and is also averaging a whopping 5.69 yards per carry on 29 rush attempts. The Browns also have three very fantasy-friendly matchups on-tap with the Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals.
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
After a surprise inactive in Week 1, the Bills have ramped up Zack Moss's workload to the point where he out-snapped Devin Singletary in Week 3 (Moss - 56%, Singletary - 43%). He also out-touched Singletary 16 to 13. Interestingly enough, Moss, who wasn't typically utilized in the passing game last season, ran 16 routes in Week 3. According to Jared Smola of Draft Sharks, Moss was utilized much more inside the 10-yard line last week, getting five opportunities to just one for Singletary. Despite the fact that Josh Allen will always get his chances down around the goal-line, the Bills' running back getting the opportunities down deep is the one you want on your fantasy team, and that's Zack Moss.
Other Risers: Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Mark Andrews
Fantasy Football Fallers
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Robby A saw his snap % drop to 64% in Week 3 after averaging 78% the first two weeks of the season. He ran a similar number of routes (31 vs. 33 in both Weeks 1 and 2), but only drew two targets from Sam Darnold. On the season, Anderson has just five receptions for 103 yards on 11 targets. None of those 11 targets have come in the red zone. Meanwhile, rookie Terrace Marshall has seen 14 targets, three of which have come in the red zone. Robby A certainly looks like the fourth option in this passing attack after D.J. Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Christian McCaffrey (when healthy).
Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Talent was never the concern with Julio Jones. However, it looks like the injury bug has once again bitten the 32-year old receiver. He missed practice on Wednesday with a leg injury and may not play in Week 4 after seeing limited action in Week 3 (just 50% of the snaps). It's possible the Titans play it safe with the veteran and give him as much time as possible to rest in hopes of being 100% healthy. Figure even when he does come back he'll play in a more limited capacity than he did the first two weeks of the season now that he's dealing with a leg injury.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Carson’s involvement in Week 3 vs. the Vikings was a little odd. It was a competitive game in which he only played 43% of the snaps. He exited the game briefly in the third quarter with an apparent leg issue but was able to return in the fourth. He still managed to take one to the house for a 30-yard rushing touchdown, but the workload is certainly a bit concerning. What’s more concerning is his lack of usage in the passing game. Through three weeks, Carson is running just 11 routes per game compared to an average of 16 routes run per game in 2020. This could be due to variance, or Carson’s role in the offense could be changing ever so slightly. Travis Homer ran six routes in Week 2, then 11 routes in Week 3, which seemingly cut into Carson’s time on the field during passing downs.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
See Zack Moss write-up in the Risers section above
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
After an offseason filled with trade rumors swirling around Zach Ertz, the masses flocked to Dallas Goedert as a potential breakout candidate. Not only is Ertz still in Philadelphia, but he’s looking like the preferred option in passing situations. With the Eagles playing from behind in Week 3 vs. the Cowboys, Goedert played on just 55% of the snaps and ran just 17 routes. Through three weeks, he’s averaging just 13.7 routes run per game. In four games played without Ertz last season, Goedert was averaging 34.3 routes run per game. Ertz meanwhile is averaging more routes run per game (17.3) than Goedert this season. Goedert’s involvement in the passing game looks more similar to Jonnu Smith’s than it does Noah Fant’s, and that’s not a good thing, especially considering Goedert was being drafted as a top-10 tight end in most leagues.
Other Fallers: Ronald Jones, Jonnu Smith, Damien Harris (again), Gabriel Davis, Will Fuller V, Evan Engram
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