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Fantasy Football Q&A Mailbag - Week 3


Week 2 of the 2018 NFL Season is in the books, and what a wild ride it has been so far. Matt Breida leads the NFL in rushing, David Johnson is ranked outside of the top 25 in fantasy points at his position, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the number one overall fantasy player, Patrick Mahomes has 10 touchdown passes in two games, and the list of surprises can go on and on. Having said that, it's still early and there is plenty of time for things to return to a more "normal" state in the world of fantasy football.

With Week 3 quickly approaching, it's time to dig into the RotoBaller Mailbag. I will be answering several of the best questions from Twitter each and every week. Thanks to everyone who sent theirs in for this edition! Before we get to the questions, here is a quick look at all of the upcoming games, as well as the current Vegas spreads and point totals.

  • New York Jets at Cleveland (-3.0) - Total: 39.5
  • San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) - Total: 56.5
  • New Orleans at Atlanta (-3.0) - Total: 53.0
  • Denver at Baltimore (-5.5) - Total 43.5
  • Cincinnati at Carolina (-3.0) - Total: 44.0
  • New York Giants at Houston (-6.0) - Total: 42.0
  • Tennessee at Jacksonville (N/A) - Total: N/A
  • Oakland at Miami (-3.0) - Total: 43.5
  • Buffalo at Minnesota (-16.5) - Total: 41.0
  • Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6.5) - Total 47.5
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7.0) - Total: 48.0
  • Chicago (-6.0) at Arizona - Total: 38.0
  • Dallas at Seattle (-1.5) - Total: 41.5
  • New England (-6.5) at Detroit - Total: 52.0
  • Pittsburgh (-1.0) at Tampa Bay - Total 53.5

 

Week 3 Reader Q&A

Mike's Take:

Collins is averaging 9.9 FPPG and has handled just 38 percent of Baltimore's backfield touches through the first two weeks. On the flip side, Breida leads the NFL in rushing and is coming off a 24.9 fantasy point performance. Breida is also facing a Kansas City defense that is allowing 37.7 points per game to opposing running backs, which is second worst in the NFL. Breida is the play at RB.

At the wide receiver position, you have two intriguing options. Allen Robinson led all receivers with a hefty 41 percent target share in Week 2, so he should be heavily involved again against the Cardinals and moving forward. Brown is a deep-threat capable of scoring on any play. However, the Ravens have spread the ball around pretty evenly to Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead, and Brown, so there is more competition for targets. For that reason, it's Robinson over Brown for Week 3.

 

Mike's Take:

Those are two pretty solid options, but Golladay stands out as the better play. The second-year receiver is currently 14th in fantasy points per game, compared to Kupp's rank of 29th. He also has Kupp beat in yardage, receptions, targets, and target share. Perhaps the biggest factor that works in his favor is Detroit's poor defense, resulting in high-scoring, shootout type of matchups. This week should be no different, as the Lions figure to be playing from behind early and often against the 23rd ranked New England pass defense.

 

Mike's Take:

I would rather hold the rookie in this scenario. Javorius Allen may have better numbers through the first two weeks, but he has been outplayed by Alex Collins, and to me, it's a matter of a time until Collins sees more action. Wilkins has a 49 percent share of the Indianapolis backfield so far this season and has produced RB3 numbers in the process. He is someone who could improve in the coming weeks, especially when you consider he has only played in two games at the pro level. Latavius Murray is nothing more than a handcuff at this point in time, as he is averaging 3.1 fantasy points per game and is coming off just four touches against the Packers last week. Dalvin Cook is the clear-cut starter in Minnesota, so Murray will be hard-pressed to make a consistent impact unless Cook misses action.

 

Mike's Take:

In PPR formats, I almost always lean towards a starting receiver over a running back who doesn't catch many passes out of the backfield. That leaves Randall Cobb versus Chris Godwin. Godwin is a player I've had my eye on since early drafting season in July, but it's always a risky play going with someone who many view as the third receiving option on his respective team. He deserves some consideration, but Cobb is the safest choice between the two. He struggled a bit last week but that was also against one of the best defenses in football. Cobb's 20 percent target share and 81 percent catch rate through two weeks shows that he has the trust of Aaron Rodgers and should continue to be a big part of a pass-happy offense. I still like Cobb over Morris in standard formats this week as well.

 

Mike's Take:

Yes, I like the idea of trading Gordon, especially at 0-2. There is a lot of hype surrounding him, as I've heard some ridiculous Randy Moss comparisons over the past few days. His ceiling is very high, but I'm more skeptical than most when it comes to his fantasy impact in 2018. The Patriots offense is known as a complex scheme, so it will likely take several weeks at the very least for Gordon to make a significant impact, if any at all this year. My general feeling is that he could hit full stride near the fantasy playoffs, but sitting at 0-2 you simply can not afford to wait when you can get someone in return who could make an immediate impact for your roster. Remember, he has to stay healthy and out of trouble first, which has proved to be a major challenge throughout Gordon's career.

 

Mike's Take:

I have several concerns with David Johnson and his 2018 outlook. First and foremost, his usage and lack of targets in the passing game has been a major letdown. Secondly, Arizona is as bad, if not worse than I anticipated. Having no weapons at receiver aside from an aging Larry Fitzgerald is resulting in team's keying in on DJ. Elliott has some similar situations, but the two major factors that are working in his favor is a strong defense and very high volume. Johnson is currently 27th in fantasy points per game with a 65 percent share of Arizona's backfield. In comparison, Elliott is ranked 8th in fantasy points per game and leads the entire NFL with a 98 percent share of his team's respective backfield touches. Elliott over DJ by a pretty wide margin for the rest of the season.

 

Mike's Take:

This is a great question! This is the perfect time to buy low, especially targeting teams who are 0-2 out of the gate and desperate to make a move. It's worth throwing a flier out there on Le'Veon Bell for starters. I have no idea when and if he'll return this year, but if he does we all know he is a top-three fantasy player. I just traded Lamar Miller and Randall Cobb to an 0-2 team for Bell, which won't cripple my team even if he sits out for most of the year. Dalvin Cook is another great buy-low option. He's averaging just 12.8 fantasy points per game, but has the potential to explode in that offense. The two things I love about Cook are his receiving ability in PPR formats, and his nearly 70 percent workload through two weeks. Throw Jordan Howard in there as well, another player with very high usage (73%) and sudden receiving abilities.

At wide receiver, Chris Hogan is a player worth throwing a low-ball offer at. The addition of Josh Gordon could cause his fantasy value to plummet, but I really don't think his role changes much. Hogan will continue to work the outside and could be a major factor in the New England offense, regardless of Gordon's role. Lastly, George Kittle is still a top-eight end option for the rest of the year in my books, and he's coming off a two-reception performance last week. He has great upside in one of the best offensive schemes in the NFL.

 

That's all I have time for this week, ladies and gents! To have your questions featured next week on our mailbag, please send them to @1ststopfantasy and/or @RotoBallerNFL with #RotoBallerMailbag. Good luck in your Week 3 matchups!

 

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