X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Make Smarter Moves and Maximize your Value

By SD Dirk (Tony La Russa) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller writer Chris Hawkins breaks down how to analyze your league's categories to make sure you are making the smartest possible moves for your stretch run!

As the calendar gets ready to turn to August, the stretch run is coming into sight.  Rotisserie fantasy owners must look at where they'll be able to pick up ground in their leagues and where they have room to give. The concept is simple but very often overlooked. Not all fantasy stats (HR, R, K, etc.) are created equal, and being able to understand your standings can be the difference between taking home your league’s title and ending up as the beer boy for the following year’s draft (see: http://www.cracked.com/blog/the-10-worst-punishments-losing-in-fantasy-league). A hard analysis can sometimes lead to the realization that you don't need to get even value in a trade-- accepting a lesser player who can gain you more points mught be the better option.

As an example, take a look at the following league's standings. We'll keep it simple and pretend this league only uses hitting stats, but you can and should expand this analysis for all categories. Remember, first place in runs is just as valuable as first place in saves so you want to get the whole picture.

R HR RBI SB Avg
A

621

127

570

75

0.257

B

588

97

509

131

0.259

C

670

95

508

129

0.284

D

603

100

520

92

0.298

E

610

102

526

87

0.266

R HR RBI SB Avg Total
A

4

5

5

1

1

16

B

1

2

2

5

2

12

C

5

1

1

4

4

15

D

2

3

3

3

5

16

E

3

4

4

2

3

16

 

At first glance you might say it will just be some luck to see who has a hot finish to the year in to determine who will win this league, but I'd have to disagree. There are probably just four teams in the hunt (B would need some real magic), but I would prefer to be Team C currently in fourth place if I had my choice, because they could easily jump to 21 or 22 points while the other teams would all struggle to get above 20. Teams A, D and E are all tied at 16 points with C just behind at 15, but fantasy baseball stats aren't quite as linear as the real life version. Put another way, while it's true each HR your fantasy team hits will tally equally a HR, R, RBI and improve your average, what really matters is how each of those stats accumulate and compare to the other teams in your league.

Without looking at the entire roster, it's clear that Team C is short in the power department, but how bad are they really? It's unrealistic to imagine that they'll catch Team A, but a small power surge could move them from fifth to second fairly quickly and net the team three fantasy points. The same logic applies in the RBI department, too, where Team C could easily pick up three points. In the other categories, Team C has a huge lead in runs and they are grouped at the very top of stolen bases.  With the big lead in the runs department, it's very unlikely Team C is going to give up any ground there, and while they could gain a fantasy point in SB, it's unlikely they would give up any points and finish worse than second.  And finally, Team C is basically by itself in batting average where it would take something significant for them to move up or down there.Just to reiterate: Team C currently sits at 15, but could easily gain six (three in HR, three in RBI) or seven (if gain one more in SBs) fantasy points.

Again, without looking at the rosters, there's a pretty good chance Team C has a few guys like Matt Carpenter, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starling Marte and Everth Cabrera, which has helped build their lead in runs and SB, but it's come at the expense of power production. They could stay the course and hope to find some power on the waiver wire, but at their current pace, they're going to end the season with a GIANT lead in runs. To put it nicely, that's just plain dumb, because the goal should be to finish first in every category by 1 run, 1 SB, 1 HR, 1 point of batting average, etc., since the incremental value of each run or RBI you finish above the team behind you is precisely zero.

Let's fast-forward to the end of the season.  Team C finishes with 850 runs (first in the category), and the next closest team has 700. In HR, Team C finished last with 100, but the team that got second in HR had 110. Objectively, Team C "wasted" 149 runs, because they could have used the players that generated these runs to trade for players that generated power which would have gained them three actual fantasy points.  With the goal being to maximize fantasy points, Team C could have realized its excess of runs and identified a power bat to trade for. Even if this meant accepting a trade that resulted in 100 fewer runs but 11 additional HR (this would seem like an awful idea in most circumstances) and "losing the trade" in a vacuum, it would actually net the team three fantasy points by moving up in HR from fifth to second (and could potentially have a similar impact on RBI) without costing any points at all in the runs category.  To provide context, rarely would I trade Jacoby Ellsbury for Adam Dunn, but it could actually make sense under the right circumstances at this point in the season.

You can take this logic to the next level by looking at what other teams need to gain points, too. In doing so, there may be times when there's some logic to "keeping" stats on your team to prevent another team from having them and gaining ground on you (think of this as a defensive strategy). Conversely, there may be times when you see the person you're competing with for first place has a very slim lead in a category, and you can trade a player to a team who's out of the running but that can steal a point from the team you really care about by allowing them to overtake your direct adversary in a specific category (think of this as a sabotage strategy).

Remember, this logic should be applied across your entire standings, because though you might have an excess of saves, picking up extra steals could put your team over the top. Even if it costs you a point in one category, you should be willing to sacrifice that to pick up three or four elsewhere.  You’re always better off working smarter rather than harder.

============

Sign up for our newsletter to get all of our content delivered directly to your inbox.  And check out our awesome daily-updated waiver wire pickup list!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Lands On The 10-Day Injured List
Mike Trout

Lands On The 10-Day Injured List With A Bone Bruise
Mikko Rantanen

Finishes Game 6 Loss With Four Points
Roope Hintz

Notches Four Points In Losing Effort
Cale Makar

Enjoys Three-Point Night Thursday
Nathan MacKinnon

Collects Three Points In Crucial Win
Mark Stone

Continues To Heat Up Thursday
William Nylander

Leads The Way In Game 6 Victory
Connor Brown

Tallies Three Points In Series-Clincher
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Don't Exercise Zion Johnson's Fifth-Year Option
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option For Kaiir Elam
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Expect Trevon Diggs To Start Camp On The PUP List
Jake Burger

Optioned To Minors
Bobby Witt Jr.

Extends Hitting Streak To 22 Games With Homer
Tennessee Titans

Titans Don't Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Green Bay Packers

Packers Don't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Quay Walker
Seiya Suzuki

Puts On Power Display In Win Over Pirates
Mike Trout

Out Of Thursday's Lineup
Walker Buehler

Getting Testing On His Shoulder, Won't Start Friday
Kristian Campbell

Scratched With Rib Discomfort
Juan Soto

Busts Out With Two Homers In Thursday's Loss
Isaiah Stewart

Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Moving To Second Line Thursday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Have Knee Surgery
Frederik Andersen

Expected To Return To Practice Friday
Mark Scheifele

Won't Play In Game 6
Pavel Dorofeyev

Out On Thursday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Giants Place Tyler Fitzgerald On 10-Day Injured List With Rib Fracture
Jason Robertson

Upgraded To Day-To-Day
Miro Heiskanen

Ruled Out For Game 6
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Add Collin Johnson To Wide Receiver Room
Chicago Bears

Colston Loveland A "Natural Fit" In Ben Johnson's Offense
Salvador Perez

Leaves Early On Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cincinnati Bengals

Samaje Perine Expected To Have A Passing-Down Role
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Expected To Move On From Jalen Ramsey Soon
Shota Imanaga

Expected To Make His Next Start
Tennessee Titans

Chimere Dike Has "Flexibility" To Play All Wide Receiver Positions
Justin Martinez

Diamondbacks Place Justin Martinez On 15-Day Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Kyle Higashioka

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Corey Seager

Targeting Saturday Return
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Exercise Charles Cross' Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Decline Kenyon Green's Fifth-Year Option
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Not Picking Up Devin Lloyd's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Expected To Sit And Learn In 2025
Arizona Cardinals

Jonathan Gannon Excited For Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Second Season
Alexis Díaz

Alexis Diaz Optioned To Triple-A
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Filip Gustavsson

On Track To Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Caps Off First Round With Multi-Point Effort
Eetu Luostarinen

Explodes For Four Points In Series-Clincher
Dylan Strome

Extends Point Streak With Two Assists
Alex Ovechkin

Pots 30th Playoff Power-Play Goal
Kyle Connor

Ties Jets Record With Fourth Three-Point Playoff Game
Mark Scheifele

Injured In Game 5
New York Giants

Evan Neal Moving To Offensive Guard
Chris Sale

Strikes Out 10
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Waive Malik Davis
Houston Texans

John Metchie III Could Be Odd-Man Out
Masyn Winn

Homers Twice In Game 1 Of Doubleheader
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Release Anthony Firkser
New England Patriots

Patriots Not Picking Up Cole Strange's Fifth-Year Option
Justin Martinez

Could Land On Injured List
Tommy Edman

Dealing With Ankle Injury
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez To Make Season Debut On Sunday
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Signs With Bills On One-Year Deal
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Logs Massive Triple-Double In Game 5
Maxi Kleber

Listed As Questionable For Game 5
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Rob Dillingham

Out On Wednesday
Jae'Sean Tate

Still Out On Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed As Probable For Wednesday
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF