Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 8

June 21, 2025

Dan analyzes pitcher stats from 2024 and 2025 to see who is surging for fantasy baseball this season. Are these pitchers breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks for

We are only a week or so away from the official midpoint of the MLB season (remember that the All-Star break takes place after the actual midway point). Instead of analyzing four or five specific pitchers this week, I thought it might be a useful exercise to reflect on some of the biggest "breakouts" of the first half in terms of pitchers who have made major statistical improvements compared to last season.

There's still a lot of baseball to be played, and some of these pitchers may end up regressing in various categories. But we have a pretty solid sample size of innings to go off so far this year by this point. I only used starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings this season when compiling my data.

My goal was to identify the pitchers who have made the biggest statistical improvements in impactful categories. I'll delve into a few of those big gainers to discuss their sustainability, but I am trying to take more of a big picture or overview approach to my analysis this week.

The Green Flag Statistics

This week, we are looking at starting pitchers who have improved in one or more of the five statistics that I have deemed to be important. In order, we will look at pitchers who have improved in K%, BB%, SIERA, WHIP, and Pitching+.

Strikeouts are not only valuable in fantasy baseball for scoring purposes, but strikeout rates are also highly correlated with other pitching stats.

Walk rates are often overlooked, but pitchers who show above-average control and limit free passes also usually have low WHIPs. I'm specifically separating strikeouts from walks here because K-BB% is a nice overall metric to us, but doesn't tell us if a pitcher has improved their strikeouts or walks, or both.

SIERA is my favorite ERA indicator to use when evaluating pitchers. Unlike FIP and xFIP, SIERA factors in batted ball data other than home runs. It's the most nuanced of the popular ERA indicators.

WHIP doesn't need much explanation; it's simply the number of walks and hits that a pitcher allows per inning pitched. It's a standard category in 5x5 roto leagues, but as far as a pitching metric, it helps us understand how good a pitcher is at keeping runners off base. Pitchers with higher WHIPs have to work much harder to get out of jams and leave runners on base, and will have to post high LOB% rates to compete in ERA with lower WHIP pitchers.

Pitching+ is one of three metrics (along with Stuff+ and Location+) that were created by Eno Sarris and Max Bay to measure pitcher effectiveness by stripping away all on-field results after a pitch is thrown. Pitching+ factors in the physical characteristics of the pitch (location, velocity, spin rate), the count that the pitch is thrown in, and even batter handedness.

Top Strikeout Rate Improvers

All stats used in these leaderboards were current as of Wednesday, June 18.

The first thing I always do with strikeout rates is look for the SwStr% to gauge if the current K% is sustainable. It's no surprise that MacKenzie Gore's 14.9% SwStr% is the best among the group.

Gore may not finish the year at 33%, but he's missing bats at a high enough rate to finish around 30%. I've talked about him before this season, and he'll find his way onto several more of our lists in this piece. The breakout is real, and it's been spectacular.

MacKenzie Gore, White Castle Special. 🤮🍔🍔🍔 pic.twitter.com/8sUgZWlYV3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2025

Right behind Gore is Cristopher Sanchez at 13%. While he was great the last two seasons in Philly, we've seen him take the next step in his game by upping the strikeouts in a big way. His changeup is still fantastic, but he added a few ticks of velocity to his two-seamer this season as well.

His teammate, Luzardo, has been a bit inconsistent lately, but is another success story this season. While Sanchez had never shown this type of strikeout prowess, Luzardo had in the past and simply needed to get healthy and make a few arsenal tweaks (namely, adding the sweeper) to get back to being an elite strikeout pitcher.

As incredible as Hunter Brown has been, I do think his strikeouts are going to dip at some point, with only a 12% SwStr%. If he finished around 28%, that would make more sense and would still represent a 3% jump from last year.

Logan Webb struck out nine Guardians the other night, continuing to prove that he can be a strikeout pitcher and an elite ground-ball pitcher. He's a bit of an anomaly with a SwStr% of just 11.4% but a CSW% of 31.8%. I am not sure he can keep getting that many called strikes, but if anyone can do it, Webb might be the guy, as his control has been pinpoint all season.

It's been a dream start to his season, but Andrew Abbott shouldn't be striking out this many hitters with his stuff and just a 10.9% K%. I admitted earlier this season that I think Abbott is just good now, but also that I don't fully understand how he's getting these elite results. He should easily beat his 19.5% K% from last year, but don't be surprised if he finishes much closer to the 22% to 23% range by the end of the season.

Top Walk Rate Improvers

This is easily our most interesting group of leaders. Each of these pitchers lowered their walk rate by 2% or more from last season. That may not sound like much, but remember that the average walk rate is around 8%. So, if a pitcher drops their BB% from 8% to 6%, that's a 25% drop in walks, which is incredibly significant and potentially impactful.

I'm not going to spend much time on guys like Lorenzen, Kremer, Quantrill, and Sears, who all have very little upside for fantasy purposes.

We can also skim over Greene and Eovaldi, who are currently on the IL. Both guys were having tremendous seasons so far, so let's hope they can get healthy and back in the rotation soon.

Chris Bassitt is under 6% for the first time in his career. As a guy without overpowering stuff who relies a lot on breaking balls, Bassitt needs to keep those walks down as he gives up a healthy share of contact and has a rather high BABIP of .323.

Max Fried had one of his worst walk rates last year at 8%, so he pops here as he's back to being in his old ways of being an excellent control pitcher.

Max Fried, Pretty 76mph Curveball. 🌈

9th K pic.twitter.com/rgiLfNBOrU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 15, 2025

Oh hey, look who it is again -- MacKenzie Gore! Just for reference, Gore's career BB% is over 9%, so his drop in walk rate is significant. He's cut his walks down every year in the major leagues and is now comfortable resting under the league average. Gore's Ball% is at 36%, which helps to prove that he can likely sustain something in the 7% range going forward.

Don't forget about Edward Cabrera. He still walks far too many hitters, but he's moved down from the "horribly wild" tier to the "potentially useful when he's on" category. He's someone to consider as a streamer or a potential add in deeper leagues.

Top SIERA Improvers

I'm going to do my best to avoid discussing the same pitchers over and over again in each section. If we skip down past the first four pitchers whom we have already touched on, we end up with Cade Povich and Max Meyer.

Both are young prospects who have been getting the biggest MLB workload of their career, but both have also recently landed on the IL. They haven't been good enough recently to warrant rostering in fantasy leagues, but both are talented young guys who I'll continue to monitor this season.

Filthy stuff from @_David_Peterson 🤮 pic.twitter.com/BZAtad6gGL

— New York Mets (@Mets) June 18, 2025

The next pitcher here we haven't yet discussed is David Peterson. He's been easily the most impressive and consistent of the Mets starters. We'd seen him flirt with being good at times in the past, but he's put it all together this season. His xERA and SIERA are a full run higher than his 2.60 ERA, so some regression is expected, but he's not raising many red flags elsewhere.

Last, but certainly not least, is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler already had a fantastic 3.32 SIERA last season, but has lowered it to just 2.60 this season as he's on pace for the best season of his career. The strikeouts are up, walks are down, and his WHIP of 0.89 is behind only Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Nathan Eovaldi, and Logan Gilbert.

Top WHIP Improvers

I only chose to feature those pitchers who chopped their WHIP by 0.2 points or more, so it's a shorter list than some others. Brown, Abbott, and Eovaldi have all chopped 0.30 off their WHIPs, which is no easy task.

How about a Patrick Corbin sighting? Corbin's WHIP was massive at 1.5 last season, but he's cut it down to a manageable number this year and has been surprisingly (how do I say this) "not that bad" this season.

Patrick Corbin hasn’t given up more than 3 Earned Runs in a start all season until tonight pic.twitter.com/nuVgSjhNCF

— The Morning After (@Bookit_TMA) June 19, 2025

I'm not advocating that you add Corbin in your fantasy league, but maybe we shouldn't stack against him every time in DFS anymore. He's been giving Texas some decent innings so far this season.

We should address the season that Carlos Rodon is having for the Yankees.

Carlos Rodón, Vicious 88mph Slider. 😤 pic.twitter.com/WTjGqDrXDy

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 19, 2025

Rodon was solid yesterday against the Angels after a few shaky starts against Boston, and has that WHIP just under 1.00 on the season. It's his best mark since his 2021 season in Chicago and is a result of him drastically dropping his hits allowed, as his walk rate is right about where it's been since 2020.

His BABIP of .221 isn't likely sustainable, but he is limiting hard contact (31%), and his xERA (2.92) backs up the batted ball results.

Top Pitching+ Improvers

One thing to note about Pitching+ is that it's set up so that a rating of 100 is average, and each increase or decrease of 10 points is one standard deviation. That means that 68% of all starting pitchers are going to have a rating between 90 to 110, and another 13.6% will be between 80 and 90 (on the low end) or between 110 and 120 (on the high end).

Just 2% of starters are going to have a rating above 120 or below 80. And then there is Tarik Skubal, who is lapping the field with a Pitching+ of 126 that represents over 2.5 standard deviations from the norm.

The @Tigers' Tarik Skubal has recorded 100+ strikeouts, a 2.50 ERA or lower & fewer than 20 walks allowed through 15 games in each of the last two seasons.

No other pitcher in MLB history has recorded back-to-back campaigns with such starts. pic.twitter.com/occwuuyn2h

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) June 19, 2025

Skubal was already a Cy Young winner and is ascending into another tier altogether. It's been amazing to watch.

Others who took a double-digit leap this year include Max Meyer, Jesus Luzardo, Hunter Greene, and Edward Cabrera. Among the others on the leaderboard, let's not forget about Shane Baz. I know he's struggled pretty badly with run prevention this year, but his stuff still grades out well. He might be a year away from a true breakout, as he's still not that far removed from arm surgery.

He might be last on the list, but he's first in my heart -- Spencer Schwellenbach. He already had a fantastic 113 rating last year, and like Skubal (to an extent), he's made the jump into some elite territory at 118. I'm still incredibly high on him, and I think we've yet to see him at his best.

Five Category Improvers

Next week, we can take a look at some of the biggest underperformers, but this week we wrap it up with one more list -- those starters who have improved in all five categories!

The first half of this list is loaded with pitchers we have already discussed multiple times, but whoa, there's a Kevin Gausman sighting! I think this may have more to do with just how bad Gausman was last year than it does with how good he's been this year, because he's been pretty mediocre overall. However, we have seen him pitch well for stretches (and then poorly again) as he's been a frustrating pitcher to figure out in terms of when to deploy him.

Kevin Gausman is experiencing his share of trouble this month pic.twitter.com/1d67sLMXwE

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) June 19, 2025

He's been trending down, but I would hold out hope for better times ahead. Gausman has enough of a track record to keep us interested, and his underlying numbers aren't all that bad.

Cal Quantrill has to be the most hilarious name on our leaderboard. In no measurable way is Quantrill a good pitcher this season; however, he was so terrible last year that he's improved everywhere and is now just "pretty bad" instead of "the gas can you target for hitter props every night."

So, what are the big takeaways? Let's summarize.

• MacKenzie Gore is the breakout pitcher of the season.
• Hunter Brown gets the nod as runner-up for top breakout.
• Logan Webb was already an innings-eating monster and has now added strikeouts. He's entered the elite tier of starters in the league.
• Zack Wheeler keeps getting better and would probably be the NL Cy Young winner if not for this Paul Skenes fella.
• Nathan Eovaldi and Hunter Greene were getting elite results before getting hurt.
• Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet.
• Max Fried and Carlos Rodon have been the best versions of themselves in several years and are the reasons why the Yankees are contenders.
• I love making charts and graphs with pitching data!

I hope you enjoyed this one this week, as we took a break from the usual format. If you have feedback for future columns, feel free to let me know @ThunderDanDFS on X.

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