September 29, 2016

Kevin Luchansky highlights the top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 9/29/16. These are the top value and sleeper plays for your FanDuel MLB DFS lineups.

What's up RotoBallers. Welcome to the last Thursday regular season day of MLB DFS. We've been hashtag blessed with a 12 game schedule, with 10 of the games taking place in the evening in the Main slate. For anyone unfamiliar with Thursday schedules, that's a whole lot of night games for a day that is typically an off day or a get-away-day. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 9/29/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.

Before we get into the player analysis, let's look at some lines and odds from Vegas that could be of interest when building your lineups. The highest over/under of the day - and the lone one of nine runs or greater - is the Orioles at Blue Jays. Vegas is seeing today as more of a pitcher's duel/paltry offense type of affair. As for moneyline favorites, the heaviest favorites today are the Cardinals (-186), the Giants (-186), and the Blue Jays (-175). I normally put a little more stock in over/under lines than moneylines, but if there is a day to do the reverse, today is such that. The hitters with the highest positive park factors are the left-handed batters of the Red Sox and Yankees, the right-handed hitters of the Rays and White Sox, and the right-handed hitters of the Blue Jays and Orioles.

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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel

The Toronto blue Jays against Ubaldo Jimenez

I still don't have run projections available for the Red Sox and Yankees yet, but of the nine other games, the Blue Jays have the highest run projection (5.2) by a pretty fair margin (1/2 a run). Ubaldo hasn't been abysmal this season, but he tends to get roughed up often and the Blue Jays have one of the most talented lineups from top to bottom - full of home run threats throughout it. For the season, left-handed batters have hit Ubaldo the hardest, as he's allowed a .380 wOBA, a .511 slugging percentage and 1.57 HR/9. The numbers he's allowed to right-handed batters are moderate, but the Blue Jays have park factors working in their favor and a lot of pop. Over the past 15 days, Jimenez has allowed a hard hit rate of 33% and has a strike rate of just 46%. My favorite Blue Jay hitters tonight are Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. Because of the success lefties have had against Jimenez, I'm going to mix one or two of them in as well, and I'm considering Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders.

Also Consider: the St. Louis Cardinals against Dan Straily

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel

Alex Reyes (SP, STL) - $5,700

Reyes is the bargain of all bargains tonight. He has been pitching extremely well, far exceeding his price implied value in his last three starts. For the season, he owns an outstanding 0.23 HR/9 and an excellent 10.75 K/9. The matchup is a very favorable one, too, as the current Reds' lineup have struck out this season in nearly 30% of their at-bats against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals are heavy favorites and their offense is projected to score the second most runs of the night, so I like his chances to earn a victory as well.

Johnny Cueto (SP, SFG) - $9,900

He's not quite the value that Reyes is, but Cueto at this figure is a really good deal too. He's performed very well in his last three starts and has a fairly favorable matchup against the Rockies in a great pitcher's park. Cueto's strikeout numbers have taken a hit this season, but 7.8 K/9 is pretty strong relative to the rest of the slate and the Rockies do a fair amount of striking out (25% against righties). Over the past two weeks, Cueto sports a hard hit rate allowed of 25%, which is a solid number.

Also Consider: Julio Urias (SP, LAD) - $7,500 (GPP only)

DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel

Catcher (C)

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - $3,900

It's a steep price for a catcher, but damn, he sure has been worth paying up for this season. He has monstrous numbers against lefties - .392 ISO and a .588 slugging percentage - and the matchup against Henry Owens is a good one.

First Base (1B)

Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL) - $4,200

All the top first baseman options are in the ballpark of 4k in pricing tonight, so i Don't mind spending an extra $100 or two on Freddie. He has been a beast lately (56% hard hit rate over the past 15 days), has fantastic splits and a good matchup too.

Second Base (2B)

Robinson Cano (2B, SEA) - $3,300

Cano is a top three option tonight, and his price - which is a real bargain - makes him my top choice at second base. He has been hitting the piss out of the ball lately and has really strong splits, too - .388 wOBA and a .250 ISO to go along with a .564 slugging percentage.

Shortstop (SS)

Marcus Semien (SS, OAK) - $2,800

Like Cano, Semien is a great value tonight with a good matchup. He has strong splits against southpaws - .343 wOBA and a .248 ISO. He also possess home run upside and gets a slight park upgrade tonight, too.

Third Base (3B)

Josh Donaldson (3B, TOR) - $4,600

The slugger is mighty pricey, but I believe he's head and shoulders above the rest of the field tonight. In addition to that consideration, the pitchers are all relatively cheap tonight, so fitting him into your lineup won't be as difficult to do. For the season, he has very strong splits - .398 wOBA and a .261 ISO.

DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel

Mallex Smith (OF, ATL) - $2,400

Smith's splits aren't elite, but his differentials are enormous. He's a strong bargain play, has power upside, and the splits tell us he does his damage when he faces a right-handed pitcher - as is the case tonight.

Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD) - $2,600

Puig has been knocking the ball around with a lot of power (50% hard hit rate past 15 days) and he's a great bargain and in a good position to continue his power tear tonight.

Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) - $3,700

If you're going to pay a premium for an outfielder tonight, Joey Bats is your man. He too has an awesome hard hit rate over the teams' past four series and also owns fairly strong splits - .218 ISO and a .452 slugging percentage.

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