FAB Bidding - Week 1 Waiver Wire Targets

September 9, 2020

Nick Mariano's pre-Week 1 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

The start of the season (usually) means every team is sitting with the same budget and the poker game is afoot. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2020 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Regardless of your philosophy, I'm here to present ample options and my own median FAB bidding recommendations heading into Week 1 for you.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAX) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

27% rostered

Minshew Mania has gripped several folks in 2020, as he offers rushing upside late in drafts or on the waiver wire.  He didn’t get any rushing TDs, but turned 67 attempts into 344 yards while passing for 21 TDs against just six interceptions. There’s no masking Jacksonville’s porous defense and their RB stable sans Leonard Fournette won’t carry the offense. With D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert and Laviska Shenault Jr. in the wings, it’ll be on Minshew’s arm to give them a chance. I expect lots of second-half catchup drives that may remind us of Jameis Winston’s campaign with plenty of scores alongside ample turnovers.

Tyrod Taylor (QB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

8% rostered

TyGod is back with a starting job with the Chargers and while his game downgrades LAC pass-catchers, he offers quiet QB2 value with 12-team streamer potential. Now 31 years old, Taylor should have plenty of life in those legs that averaged over 500 yards rushing in his three Buffalo years. His short stint in Cleveland saw him tally 125 rush yards in just 2.5 games, though he completed under 50% of his passes.

Now with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler to throw to, Taylor’s 2020 could be his best season by far. Those Buffalo years didn’t quite sport a corps that matches LAC’s roster. I’ve got him projected for around 3,500 yards, 22 passing TDs, 435 rush yards with three ground TDs, making him a top-15 QB. But the risk of Justin Herbert stepping in if Taylor scuffles must be baked in.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

James Robinson (RB, JAX) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

25% rostered

One doesn’t make moves on coachspeak alone, but Doug Marrone did cite Robinson’s ability to play all three downs (as well as Devine Ozigbo, who is 11% rostered) as the Jags collect themselves after Leonard Fournette was released. Mix in that Ryquell Armstead missed a significant portion of camp on the COVID-19 list and now finds himself back on it.

Robinson gets the nod atop Jacksonville’s depth chart, though experienced fantasy players know those can be fickle exercises and far from “official” by the coach’s book. Still, it reflects general manager Dave Caldwell’s praise of Robinson as rationale for their comfort in letting Fournette go. I get those taking the safer, known RB in Chris Thompson, but I prefer aiming higher in Robinson.

Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 4-5%

11% rostered

Kelley has mixed in with the ones and twos throughout camp and impressed Anthony Lynn, giving the Chargers a strong option to complement Austin Ekeler. He’s not Melvin Gordon, but he doesn’t have to be in order to make value here.

New Anthony Lynn quotes on Joshua Kelley ⤵️

“I believe Joshua is having an outstanding camp — he’s made plays. I’ve thrown him in with the ones; he’s made plays. He’s in with the twos; he’s made plays — he can catch the ball out of the backfield well.”https://t.co/x9an7KLCRG

— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) August 27, 2020

While Justin Jackson will also get work, he’s got a toe injury that could limit his Week 1 availability. There was plenty of work to go around for both Gordon and Ekeler last season, meaning Kelley could absorb the bulk of Gordon’s share and become a top-24 RB as LAC’s power back.

Darrel Williams (RB, KC) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

26% rostered

The fantasy universe is understandably hot for Clyde Edwards-Helaire but no preseason can make the NFL transition more difficult.  With Damien Williams opting out for the 2020 season and DeAndre Washington getting released, Darrel Williams’ brilliant camp has led beat writers to speculate his earning a 50/50 split with CEH for Week 1.

Darrel “The Mentor” Williams should be rostered in every #fantasyfootball league, especially amid reports he could have a much bigger early-season role than expected. #Chiefshttps://t.co/JUPfFac1Mt

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) September 5, 2020

Brian Hill (RB, ATL) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

4% rostered

Hill is reportedly the primary backup, the RB who “looks like the guy most capable of carrying the load if Todd Gurley’s boddy doesn’t hold up.” We all have our own risk-tolerance appetite, but those rostering RB insurance policies seem to be overlooking Hill despite Atlanta’s potent offense. Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison will also play, but Hill could push for double-digit touches should Gurley find himself limited or out. The Falcons find themselves in high-scoring affairs often enough to the point where you’ll want to track their skill-position players.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Bryan Edwards (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

19% rostered

Edwards is poised to step up with Tyrell Williams out for the season and the Raiders not having a clear No. 1 WR. Reports from camp have him as the starting X receiver and gaining the confidence of Derek Carr. We know what we’ve got in Hunter Renfrow and we saw how Darren Waller’s workload scaled back when Renfrow was folded into the offense down the stretch. Henry Ruggs III is getting a lot of (deserved) attention but is rostered at 4x the rate whereas Edwards doesn’t require a lofty pick to play. Chase Claypool at 7% rostered is a similar play.

Parris Campbell (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

21% rostered

Campbell is Philip Rivers’ new slot man and while he suffered a concussion in a car accident last month, he’s been cleared and can hopefully shine in 2020. We know the Colts are a run-heavy offense with a stacked o-line, but Campbell, T.Y. Hilton, and Michael Pittman Jr. will get theirs. Parris is more powerful than the average slot receiver and can bust upfield with the ball, especially if Rivers trusts him with those Keenan Allen-esque intermediate routes. Look for bubble screens, jet sweeps, and short slants to set Campbell free.

Logan Ryan is a great corner, but Parris Campbell's 4.31 speed makes it impossible for him to keep up. Just look at the separation Campbell creates over the middle in just five steps.

It might be time to feed the rookie more often. #Colts pic.twitter.com/kpQFDWCKkb

— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) September 17, 2019

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 4-5%

3% rostered

Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard are jostling for the No. 2 WR role in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. We know the Pack are embracing the ground game, drafting A.J. Dillon rather than a wideout, but Rodgers will still toss 4,000 yards. The issue is no one except Davante Adams topped 500 receiving yards in ‘19 and we may run into the same spread-the-love play in ‘20.

But if someone can stand out and emerge as a serious No. 2 from the pack (that’s missing an opted-out Devin Funchess) then we’ve got profit. In Green Bay’s case, we should follow what Aaron Rodgers tells us rather than coaches, and Rodgers has been most impressed by MVS.

Van Jefferson Jr. (WR, LAR) - FAB Bid: 3-4%

5% rostered

Jefferson Jr. is expected to open 2020 as LAR’s No. 3 receiver, as the second-rounder has passed Josh Reynolds per The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue. I realize everyone is swept up by Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee, but we can’t forget that the Rams deployed three wideouts to kick off 2019 until Brandin Cooks got hurt. We can’t automatically project Jefferson to get heavy play given Higbee’s emergence down the stretch, but the Rams will throw often and his low rostered rate doesn’t reflect the potential.

Steven Sims Jr. (WR, WAS) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

6% rostered

Sims had only crossed a 50% snap share once prior to Week 13, but then he strung together a strong stretch run with four TDs in Washington’s final three games of 2019. One doesn’t want to take TD-reliant stretches and overweigh them, but he saw 36 targets from Week 14-17 for Washington while the team dealt with injuries and playing from behind.

But Washington’s depth chart has already been hit hard before games even started. Derrius Guice was released, as was Adrian Peterson. Kelvin Harmon tore his ACL. Cam Sims is on the practice squad. Dontrelle Inman was brought in to offer some veteran hands for Dwayne Haskins Jr. while rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden refines his route-running.  Logan Thomas is a fine TE dart throw for us and both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have good hands, but there’s no clear No. 2 option behind Terry McLaurin. That can be Sims, and Sims has already shown us what he’s capable of.

Other options that may draw a heavy snap share with a mere 1% rostered rate are…

• Bisi Johnson (MIN) - Bisi has reportedly leapfrogged Justin Jefferson with a great camp.
• Greg Ward (PHI) - Ward could see a sizable role with Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor hurt.
• Scotty Miller (TB) - Miller looks like Tom Brady’s deep-route option, though the offense is obviously crowded.
• Russell Gage (ATL) - The Falcons are no strangers to three-wide sets and Gage looks like their slot man to enter 2020.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Eric Ebron (TE, PIT) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

34% rostered

It was just two years ago when Ebron smashed with 750 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Colts, and now he finds himself with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger in pursuit of another double-digit TD season. This tweet from Nick Farabaugh set some parts of Fantasy Twitter alight with dreams of his being properly utilized:

The presence of Eric Ebron allowed the Steelers to feel comfortable going to 5 WRs since he’s almost like another himself.

More often than not, he will be flexed out all over the field as a mismatch chess piece. Ebron’s going to get a lot of targets and looks this year.

— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) September 5, 2020

A healthy Big Ben can help us get there compared to the 2019 Colts with Jacoby Brissett doing his best to fill in for Luck. If you waited beyond the top-eight TEs then there’s very little separating Ebron from the next tier. The opportunity cost here is clearly low since he’s in the article while the Steelers offense could pop.

Jack Doyle (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

32% rostered

Doyle enters his age-30 season with the potential to fill those Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry-sized cleats in a Philip Rivers offense. Like the rest of the Colts pass-catchers, Doyle saw his stats drop in the wake of Andrew Luck’s retirement. He only saw 72 targets, catching 43 of them for 448 yards and four TDs. Though Indy is certainly more run-heavy, they should become more balanced with Rivers instead of Brissett under center. Even if Doyle simply slips back towards 80-85 targets then we’ve got a viable top-12 play. It only helps him that Trey Burton will miss time at the start of the season.

Tyler Eifert (TE, JAX) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

14% rostered

2019 saw Eifert play in 16 games for the first time in his seven-year career, and now Year 8 has him reuniting with Jay Gruden in Jacksonville. This is his first year apart from the Bengals but he remains a big-body TE who, like Ebron, has a 13-TD season under his belt (2015). But unlike Ebron’s sub-62% catch rate in each of the past three seasons, Eifert had a 68.3% catch rate in ‘19 that’s identical to his career mark.

As we’ve covered, the 2020 Jaguars are likely to be trailing often and while we’re happy to speculate on those RB touches on the cheap...the RBs won’t be the offensive strength. They’ll be stuck passing often and a healthy Eifert should push 75-plus targets with an aggressive Minshew pushing the ball. Only 12 TEs surpassed 75 looks last year.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

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