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In my last article, I talked about four third-year NBA players who can break out in the 2023-24 season, but not all players have such an optimistic outlook heading into this campaign.
The NBA is a brutal league. The competition for minutes and a bigger role is fierce, and that's mostly because the average NBA player in 2023 is more talented than ever. Surviving in the NBA is hard, and thriving is even harder. These four players will all have to fight for their futures in the NBA in their third season, and the chances of them breaking out are pretty slim.
In this article, we'll look at four players who you should probably give up on for the 2023-24 campaign. This list is in no particular order.
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#4. Ayo Dosunmu - PG, Chicago Bulls
Ayo Dosunmu might become a star a few years down the line, but that is probably not going to happen this year with him in a Chicago Bulls jersey. Dosunmu caught the attention of Bulls fans after he was inserted into the starting lineup after Lonzo Ball went down with a career-altering injury.
Dosunmu put up some great numbers in that stretch as the starter, averaging 11 points and 5.2 assists while shooting 52.1% from the field. He also did that while alternating time between PG and SG as Alex Caruso and Coby White returned to the lineup. However, his stretch as the starter coincided with the Bulls' downfall that season. They went 27-13 with Ball and 18-23 after he got hurt and Dosunmu got an expanded role.
Billy Donovan doesn't reveal much yet about the Bulls' starting point guard competition. He praised Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu and added he loves what he has seen from Jevon Carter on film. Bulls will assess their options in training camp.
— Cody Westerlund (@CodyWesterlund) October 2, 2023
Dosunmu's role for 2022-23 was unclear, and he spent time playing SG and SF. So, in two years, he spent time playing three different positions but never got that much stability. That is what kills young careers and ruins a young player's development. He was also replaced near the end of the season by Patrick Beverley and his minutes plummeted in his last 22 games of the season.
These factors all contributed to Dosunmu's stats going down from his rookie season. Things won't get any better this year, as even though Ball won't return, he still has to compete with Caruso, White, and the newly added Jevon Carter.
If he wants to play at the two or the three, he will have to sit behind Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan while also fending off the experienced Torrey Craig and the sophomore Dalen Terry. His growth has already been stunted, and with a lack of minutes to go around, things will be hard for Dosunmu in Chicago.
#3. Davion Mitchell - PG/SG, Sacramento Kings
I already talked about how Chris Duarte's chances of having a good season were slim in a previous article so we will look at his teammate instead. Davion Mitchell is a brilliant defender for his age, however, he is also another player who can't seem to get consistent playing time. Mitchell had a very solid start to his career as a rookie but really took off when De'Aaron Fox his right hand late in Mitchell's rookie season.
Mitchell showed what he was truly capable of, as he averaged 18.8 points and 9.3 assists in 11 games. He also had a five-game streak that saw him score 20+ points in every game. Just like Dosunmu, Mitchell's role declined in his sophomore season, especially after the first quarter of the season as the Kings moved towards securing their first playoff appearance since 2005-06.
Sasha Vezenkov, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell, Trey Lyles and former Kings PG Matthew Dellavedova in Vegas to watch the Kings summer league squad. pic.twitter.com/NBqiytAiDY
— Deuce Mason (@DeuceMason) July 8, 2023
His problem is simple, his lack of a reliable jumper (31.7% career 3P%) will limit his minutes. Late-game situations are when he should really be out there due to his defense, but when he can't even hit corner threes (31.6% on corner threes last year), the Kings just have to keep him off the floor.
Small defensive guards with mediocre shooting aren’t coveted around the league, and even guys like Patrick Beverley know how to shoot corner threes (39.5% career corner 3P%). Mitchell also shot 31% on open threes last year, and guys who can't knock down open threes usually have some unfixable problems with the shooting mechanics. Even if he does miraculously fix his jumper, he won't be a much better player than Beverley ever was.
#2. Tre Mann - SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Out of everyone on this list, Tre Mann's NBA future is the most unclear. Thunder fans have seemingly turned on him and now he's fighting for a chance to be kept in the near future. Mann's offensive inconsistencies have been maddening, and it's not like he's a good defender either. Mann also loves spamming three-pointers despite not being particularly good at them.
More than half of his shots last year were threes (51.3%) but his three-point percentage was just 31.5%, well below the league average. Due to his obsession with threes, he can't take advantage of drawing fouls, which is something he did pretty well in college (third on the Gators in free throws attempted made in his final season at Florida).
“Right now it’s important to find the right situation that allows my game to grow to its fullest”
Interesting quote from Tre Mann😬 pic.twitter.com/Gfri7FimZH
— 𝘿𝙐𝙁𝙁𝘼𝙇𝙊 (@Duffal0) October 2, 2023
No one truly knows what Mann is supposed to be good at. He can't defend, he isn't a passer or a playmaker, and he can't score efficiently. The Thunder can't afford to invest that much time in Mann's development, since they already have a young roster that has the potential to make the playoffs this season.
He already had some trouble cracking the rotation, which we saw in full effect last year as he was sent down to the G-League. But now, he will face even more competition with players like Cason Wallace, Vasilije Micic (who had the seventh-most PPG in the EuroLeague last season), and Victor Oladipo joining the squad.
The NBA world moves fast, and if you can't prove yourself time and time again, you'll be shown the door. Unfortunately for Mann, his days in OKC seem to be numbered.
#1. Isaiah Jackson - PF/C, Indiana Pacers
The main reason why some young bigs can't get playing time and seem to flame out is simply due to high foul rates. Isaiah Jackson is a freak athlete but he just can't stay on the floor due to how many fouls he racks up in such a short amount of time. The two main stats that determine a player's foul rates are personal fouls per 36 and Relative personal fouls (how often a player fouls compared to the league average).
Jackson has averaged 5.6 fouls per 36 for his career and is in the third percentile of relative personal fouls. And it's not like the former Kentucky Wildcat is an offensive machine to compensate for his high foul rates. He averaged just 7.2 points last year and is a non-factor when it comes to three-point shooting.
Isaiah Jackson and Jalen Smith hoping and praying some GM wanna trade for Theis right now, because he coming for their minutes lol
— Jamson Bigelow (@JamJamBigelow) September 8, 2023
It's a shame too because Jackson is one of the best athletes among big men. He would be exactly what you would create in a lab if someone asked you to create the ideal body type for a modern big. He can produce when given the time, as he averaged 10.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game in 12 games as a starter last season, but he also averaged four fouls a night.
He needs more time to improve and sort out his fouling issues, but the Pacers already have their rim protector in Myles Turner. Jackson also has to compete with Jalen Smith and the veteran Daniel Theis for the backup spot.
Jackson has all the tools and is reminiscent of a young Roy Hibbert, but just like Hibbert, he needs a few years to sort out his fouling issues in order to get meaningful playing time. It feels like this year will not be the year of Jackson's breakout.
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