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The top early daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on April 27, 2023. Mike's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We at RotoBaller will start giving you both early and main slate daily fantasy picks on getaway days moving forward, as there is always money to be made. Today's early slate is a nice six-game (four on FanDuel) loaded with pitching, as we can make a case to use almost every arm today. That makes offense challenging, as there are no slam dunk stacks today.
This article contains my picks for the six-game early slate on Thursday, April 27, 2023, for both DraftKings and FanDuel, which locks at 12:20 PM ET. Well... it's a four-game slate on FanDuel. They have decided to keep off the two later afternoon games between St. Louis and San Fransico as well as Oakland and Los Angeles Angels. Let's have some fun with this!
The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. OAK ($11,100 DK, N/A FD)
Shohei Ohtani will be the chalk here today, and rightfully so. Ohtani has a 36.2% K to open the season with a 14.7% SwStr. He has a demoralizing 0.64 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. This comes with a 14.3% BB, which is astonishing with how low his WHIP is. He has a 3.37 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA, and a .163 BABIP, so some regression is coming. I don't see his opponent, the Oakland Athletics, as being the ones to bring that to fruition.
The A's have a 24.8% K against right-hand pitching. They also own a .346 SLG, .286 wOBA, and an 85 wRC+, all good for the bottom ten in the big leagues against righties. He faced this Oakland team on opening day and went six innings, allowing zero runs on two hits with ten strikeouts. Ohtani is a great play and a cash game lock, but if you're looking to save salary, I may have a pivot we will get into later.
Matt Strahm, PHI vs. SEA ($7,200 DK, $8,700 FD)
Matt Strahm has been exceptional to start 2023 after moving from the bullpen to the rotation after signing with Philadelphia this offseason. He has pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 38.0% K. His SwStr is at 15.5%, which is elite. He is slowly starting to get stretched out, as he went a season-high 82 pitches last time out. Don't expect a 100-pitch outing from Strahm, but we don't need that at the price.
The Mariners are a bottom-ten team in the bigs against left-hand pitching. They own a 26.5% K, .380 SLG, .285 wOBA, and an 85 wRC+. This team is exploitable against this split, and the way Strahm has been throwing the rock to start this year, I don't see this offense being the one to slow him down.
Logan Webb, SF vs. STL ($8,600 DK, N/A FD)
Logan Webb is a very sneaky play on today's slate. I know no one likes picking on the Cardinals, but a couple of things are going for him. First, Webb has a career-high 29.5% K, with a 10.6% SwStr. He has a 4.40 ERA, but his xFIP is 2.55, and his SIERA is 2.66. He also has a .333 BABIP with only a 1.14 WHIP. All this screams that he is getting very unlucky, and positive regression is coming.
Logan Webb, Absurd 93mph Two Seamer Movement. 🥴
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2023
21 inches of run pic.twitter.com/bIPwNczvbE
Next, the Cardinals have a 21.4% K against right-hand pitching. Their SLG, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ are all in the same boat, as they are the middle of the pack in these categories. What makes this matchup intriguing is that the Cardinals will roll out a minimum of five right-handed bats today, and Webb excels in K% against this split. He has a 34.8% K against right-hand batters and only 22.6% K against left-hand batters. Although the Cardinals don't jump off the page as an attackable team, they are a perfect matchup for Webb because of his splits. Webb is your guy if you are looking for a low-owned pivot to save some salary.
Others to consider: Julio Urias, George Kirby
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Arraez - 2B, MIA at ATL ($4,200 DK, $3,000 FD)
All Luis Arraez does is hit. He has a .444 AVG to start the season after leading baseball in batting average last season. He doesn't have a ton of pop, but he finds ways to get on base and score runs. He has a .179 ISO this season and a ridiculous .496 wOBA against right-hand pitching. Kyle Wright has struggled against lefties this season, allowing a .412 ISO, .427 wOBA, and a 64.3% hard hit.
Matt Carpenter - 1B, SD at CHC ($2,500 DK, $2,900 FD)
Platoon specialist Matt Carpenter should get the start here against righty Hayden Wesneski, and he makes for an excellent value play on today's early slate. Carpenter holds a .333 ISO, .388 wOBA, and a 40.0% hard hit. He is also hitting the ball in the air at a 56.0% clip, and Wesneski is giving up some power this season to lefties. I will bet Carpenter to hit a home run today and get his value bat in my lineups this afternoon.
Blake Sabol - C/OF, SF vs. STL ($3,000 DK, N/A FD)
Blake Sobel has been quietly raking this season and putting up massive daily fantasy outputs at the catching position. He has scored over 14 DraftKings points in three of his last six games, and now he gets a matchup against Miles Mikolas, who has not been the same so far in 2023. Mikolas has a 7.46 ERA and is getting hit to a .313 ISO, .443 wOBA, and a 52.8% hard hit to lefties this season. Sobel has a .286 ISO and a .346 wOBA this season against righties. His issue is his strikeout rate is at a 40.9% clip, but missing bats is not one of Mikolas's strengths.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Hunter Renfroe - OF, LAA vs. OAK ($5,200 DK, N/A FD)
Hunter Renfroe is what we call a lefty masher, and today he faces a lefty who struggles badly against his split. Renfroe has a .279 ISO and .337 wOBA, with only an 18.4% K against lefties this season. He already has seven home runs and 19 RBIs, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him add another one to the board here as his opponent JP Sears has a 2.49 HR/9 with a 60.3% FB.
Juan Soto - OF, SD at CHC ($5,000 DK, $3,200 FD)
Juan Soto will face Hayden Wesneski, who has allowed a .367 ISO, .477 wOBA, and a 50.0% hard hit in 2023 to lefties. Soto has a .250 ISO and a .388 wOBA against right-hand pitching to start the season. Wesneski will throw his fastball almost 60% of the time, and Soto demolishes heaters in the velocity range Wesneski throws. He does the same with Cutters, which he throws 33% of the time. Soto should have a field day here today in this matchup.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - OF, MIA at ATL ($4,800 DK, $2,900 FD)
Jazz Chisholm gets the same matchup as Luis Arraez here, and I love this mini stack between them. Jazz has a .231 ISO, .335 wOBA, and a 40.5% hard hit against righties this season. As mentioned earlier, Kyle Wright is getting hit hard by lefties. Jazz has five home runs already this season and has been active on the bases to start this year with the new advantages of base stealers. There is a lot to the upside in the two lefties here for Miami, and I think they will be very low-owned.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. San Diego Padres vs. Hayden Wesneski
Today's first prominent go-to stack is the San Diego Padres against the struggling Hayden Wesneski. Wesneski leads the slate with a 5.07 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA. He has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP and has not missed many barrels, only striking out 15.0% of batters he has faced. He has also been getting hit hard, as he has a 42.6% hard hit and a 2.08 HR/9. Lefties have hit him to a .367 ISO, .477 wOBA, and a 50.0% hard hit, so that will be our primary focus, but we will not be avoiding the right-hand bats in this lineup in any way, shape, or form.
Hayden Wesneski's a perfect recent example of how Velo⬆️≠ Production 📈
— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) April 17, 2023
Tacked on +1.0mph to 95.4 FF but the extra sink (19.9") isn't working up, even w/more H-Mov
Case in point Home Run to T.J. Friedl
Curious to see how he adjusts I still think he's potentially a stud pic.twitter.com/bxkTD4SJUD
Favorite Plays: Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, Jake Cronenworth, Fernando Tatis Jr. , Xander Bogaerts
2. Los Angeles Angels vs. JP Sears
The Los Angeles Angels will face lefty JP Sears and his slate-leading 2.49 HR/9. Sears has a 4.98 ERA, 5.64 xFIP, and 60.3% FB. The Angels are a team full of right-handed bats with power. This season, Sears has a .333 ISO, .334 wOBA, and a 43.9% hard hit against right-handed bats. We also all know the ball flies on the west coast during the day, and the Athletics bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.
Favorite Plays: Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward
3. Miami Marlins Lefties vs. Kyle Wright
April 22 pitcher shape metrics of note. #MLB
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) April 23, 2023
Did Dustin May tweak his curveball?
Thoughts on Dustin May, Hayden Wesneski, Kyle Wright, and Garrett Cleavinger. pic.twitter.com/L932bPfXeV
4. Atlanta Braves vs. Braxton Garrett
5. San Francisco Giants vs. Miles Mikolas
DraftKings and FanDuel Early Core Lineups
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