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RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at QB Dak Prescott, QB Jameis Winston, and WR DeAndre Hopkins.
Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.
Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.
This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 27
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank QB9
Updated Rank QB7
For the first five weeks of the 2020 season, Dak was one of the eight QBs you needed to win your weekly matchups. Prescott went on a three-week run of scoring an average of 35 fantasy points per game. Prescott was clearly elevating all of the skill players around him. Even then, rookie CeeDee Lamb was an every-week fantasy starter averaging over 16 PPR fantasy points per game. The 2021 early draft Superflex market for Dak was warm, his ADP was in the middle of the first round. As noise about the status of Dak’s contract increased, his ADP fell slightly to 13th overall or QB10.
Sharp players never doubted if Dak was going to be a Dallas Cowboy. The RosterWatch rankings did lower Dak below Russell Wilson, due to very minor concern about Dak’s gruesome injury last year. Dak’s new contract is a clear signal the Cowboys are confident he will be back to full health in short order. We advise confidently drafting Dak as soon as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson are off the board.
Jameis Winston, Free Agent
Age: 27
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank QB20
Updated Rank QB16
It still is mind-boggling that Jameis Winston was a top-three QB for fantasy in 2019 and did not get a starting job in 2020. The obvious explanation was Winston’s real-life turnover issue. It has been well documented that Winson’s 30 interceptions in 2019 made him kryptonite to NFL coaches. The former number one overall pick in 2015 still possesses elite QB traits and showed well in limited action for the Saints. The RosterWatch first set of dynasty startup rankings launched January 1, 2021. At that time, we ranked Winston as our QB25. On January 1st, the Vegas odds for the Saints' starting QB were:
Taysom Hill -650
Jameis Winston +250
Simply stated, Hill was considered a massive favorite. Having had a glimpse of Hill’s upside, we were comfortable ranking him among the top-13 QBs. Without an NFL team at the time, it would have been irresponsible to rank Winston anything higher than the top-20.
Nevertheless, the Vegas odds have moved significantly the other way.
Taysom Hill +105
Jameis Winston +130
Hill is still a slight favorite, but you can’t ignore the trend. Winston is still available in drafts at the QB20 price tag. Hill goes around QB25. One of them is going to be more valuable than both of them together right now. We have moved Winston up to QB16, but make sure you pay attention to ADP, as to not cheat yourself of value. Winston does carry risk, as we have seen coach Sean Payton remove Drew Brees in short-yardage situations for Taysom Hill. If Winston were to be named the starter, he can no longer be projected as a 35-touchdown QB. He is better thought of as a 28-touchdown player due to Sean Payton’s track record of using Taysom Hill near the endzone. Winston would still be a valuable QB2 in Superflex leagues.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Age: 28
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank WR4
Updated Rank WR7
RosterWatch often reminds our readers that even slight movement near the top of the dynasty startup rankings should be considered significant. Hopkins is an interesting case. He is moving down the ranks slightly for a unique reason. We still believe Hopkins is one of the top-three WRs in the NFL, and will likely be a top-five fantasy WR for 2021. Sharp rankings must take into account ADP. Hopkins is getting pushed down the board by the young crop of WRs that have shown elite upside over the last two years.
Players like Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, and DK Metcalf are getting drafted a full round ahead of Hopkins. We still believe that Nuk can outproduce those WRs this year, but to take him in the top-15 overall picks would be leaving value on the table. You can easily get Hopkins in the third round of Superflex startup leagues.
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