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RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at WR Julio Jones, QB Ryan Tannehill, and WR Russell Gage.
This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.
Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.
Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans
Age: 32
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank: WR35
Updated Rank: WR42
Julio Jones was traded to the Titans recently. There have been a variety of opinions on Jones’s fantasy football outlook moving forward. There is going to be a large gap between Julio’s redraft ranking and his dynasty ranking. His redraft rank will likely be around WR15-WR20. For dynasty startups, his age already had him ranked outside the top-30 by most reasonable analysts. Julio Jones still had elite per-play numbers in 2020. His numbers suggested he is still a top-five real-life NFL receiver. He did miss seven games in 2020, which is concerning for an aging WR.
Prior to 2020, Julio had not missed a single game in over three seasons. We should acknowledge that when wide receivers built like Julio start to “breakdown,” the collapse does come quickly. In Superflex startups, Julio's ADP is in the late seventh-round, which makes him a solid WR3. We are dropping Julio slightly since there are younger WRs we prefer in that range. Julio is walking into a team with another alpha player in A.J. Brown and a presumably lower passing volume than Atlanta.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
Age: 33
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank: QB23
Updated Rank: QB19
Tannehill is a clear winner from the Julio Jones trade. Experienced fantasy football players already acknowledge Tannehill is one of the best “boring” picks in dynasty. Tannehill finished as a top-10 fantasy QB two seasons in a row, including a QB7 finish last season. Critics of Ryan Tannehill believe that his seven rushing touchdowns in 2020 are unrepeatable. Though any reasonable projection should regress that number, he is still a plus runner who will have significantly upgraded weapons in the passing game.
Ryan Tannehill’s redraft ranking should settle in around QB12. Dynasty players who are concerned with his age of 33 will prefer to draft unproven younger players like Mac Jones and Zach Wilson ahead of him. Tannehill is a good bet to outproduce both of those players over the next two seasons. RosterWatch reminds dynasty players to think of dynasty in two to three-year windows rather than a three to five-year time frame. While your league mates overvalue youth in drafts, it is a sharp strategy to gobble up the “older boring” players that are productive.
Russell Gage, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Age: 25
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank: WR92
Updated Rank: WR58
Another big winner of the Julio Jones trade is Russell Gage. Gage takes a massive leap up the dynasty startup rankings. Even with modest volume, Gage put up nine double-digit PPR fantasy games in 2020. He started the season hot, cooled down, but finished with a 25 fantasy point game. Gage is going to be a reliable target for Matt Ryan. He is proven, sure-handed, and an underrated player.
He is not a “sexy” fantasy pick but is shaping up to be an every-week fantasy starter. The reason Gage remains ranked outside of the top-40 wide receivers is that there is a chance that rookie Kyle Pitts reaches his upside outcome and relegates Gage to a modest target volume. That should be the case long term. Gage is another player that will have a better redraft ranking than dynasty startup outlook.
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