Quarterback Dynasty Rankings - Tiers and Analysis

March 4, 2019

Tiered rankings and analysis for quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. Matt Terelle breaks down the QB ranks for owners in dynasty and keeper fantasy football leagues for 2019.

The rankers here at RotoBaller are committed to providing you with detailed fantasy football rankings for dynasty leagues. Our rankings also include tiers which supply a more detailed breakdown on which players to target for your rosters, along with the performers that you should avoid.

These rankings are updated continuously and should be used as a primary source when you enter a dynasty startup draft or to evaluate trade options in-season.

This article will take a look at the dynasty rankings and tiers for the quarterback position. All references to dynasty leagues assume you are playing in a 12-team, PPR dynasty league. As always, dynasty rankings are fluid and can change often. Let's get to the rankings!

Quarterback Dynasty Rankings

Tier 1

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes finds himself all alone in Tier 1, thanks to a transcendent sophomore season which saw him pass for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions. That dominant performance has led to plenty of buzz around the 23-year-old gunslinger, which has elevated him to an ADP in the third round of single-quarterback leagues. While that is a bit rich for my taste, there's an argument to be made as Mahomes' fantasy owner is locking up QB1 production for at least the next 12 years. This will allow said owner to concentrate his or her resources on the other fantasy positions, knowing that the quarterback position is set for the next decade or so.

Mahomes is an obvious regression candidate for the 2019 season but that shouldn't change his standing as the overall QB1 in dynasty. He has an excellent supporting cast and, while he may not pass for 50 touchdowns again, is a lock to be a top-five performer annually. He is in the conversation as pick 1.01 in two-quarterback dynasty startup drafts.

Tier 2

Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers

Luck's splendid 2018 season helped to soothe concerns over this surgically repaired throwing shoulder. What a difference a year makes as the veteran quarterback is firmly our QB2 in dynasty a year after struggling to crack the top-12 in many startup drafts.

While it would be nice to see the Colts address the No. 2 wideout position this offseason, Luck proved in 2018 that he doesn't need an elite surrounding cast to perform as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the game. Still just 29, Luck has at least seven elite-level seasons left in the tank.

This tier also boasts two young, up-and-coming quarterbacks and one future Hall of Famer who is entering the twilight of his career. Last year, Watson showed no ill effects of the ACL tear which cut his 2017 season short. The 23-year-old appeared in all 16 games for the Texans, passing for 4,165 yards and 26 touchdowns while chipping in 551 rushing yards and five rushing scores. Watson's dual-threat ability and excellent wide receiver corps led by DeAndre Hopkins keeps him close to the top of our dynasty rankings.

Mayfield turned in one of the best rookie seasons ever for a quarterback. Despite not starting a game until Week 4, Mayfield's 27 passing touchdowns set an NFL record for a rookie. Mayfield had plenty of success under interim offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, who was promoted to head coach this offseason. Look for the two to continue to grow together on a Browns offense that is a strong candidate to take a huge leap forward in 2019.

Rodgers set a career high with 40 passing touchdowns in 2016 but it has been tough going ever since for the star signal-caller. Rodgers' 25 passing touchdowns in 2018 were the lowest of his career in seasons where he played 15 or more games. There's hope that the team moving on from longtime head coach Mike McCarthy will spark the Green Bay offense, but Rodgers is 35 now and his surrounding cast isn't what it used to be. He is a better dynasty option on win-now teams and should be shopped by rebuilding squads.

Tier 3

Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff

In perhaps his most impressive feat yet, Wilson managed to finish as the QB9 in fantasy, despite a puzzling run-heavy approach deployed by the Seattle coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer continually opted to ignore one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, allowing Wilson to throw just 427 passes this past season. That ranks as the least pass attempts by any quarterback who finished in the top 20 in fantasy scoring last year. Wilson made up for it with crazy efficiency, managing to toss 35 scores and just seven picks.

Wilson is a Tier 1 talent in dynasty as a player but the current scheme in Seattle is limiting his upside. This is a good time to buy-low on the star as schemes and coaching staffs can change quickly in the NFL. He would be mentioned in the same breath as Mahomes if he were allowed to attempt close to 600 passes.

Wentz had a rough 2018 season as he didn't look the same following ACL surgery in 2017. Add in a postseason story about him being in the center of some locker room drama and you have a player who is seeing his dynasty value dwindling. Wentz should look better in 2019 when he's more than a year removed from the knee injury. He's another guy who I would be looking to buy low this offseason if the price is right.

Most football fans will focus on Goff's poor performance in Super Bowl LIII but that was just the continuation of a concerning downward trend that began in Week 13 of the regular season. Goff averaged 322.4 passing yards and 2.36 touchdowns in his 11 games before Week 13 and just 228.2/1.2 in the five games after. Perhaps the league started to figure out Sean McVay's offense or perhaps it's just a small sample aberration. Either way, I'd be looking to sell Goff is there's an owner willing to pay early-season prices for him.

Tier 4

Cam Newton, Mitch Trubisky, Matt Ryan

Newton scared his dynasty owners when reports surfaced that the right shoulder injury that caused him to miss the final two games of the season could be serious. His doctors helped to limit those concerns when surgery showed the damage wasn't as extensive as initially believed. Newton is now expected to be ready for the start of the 2019 season. Cam turns 30 in May but he remains a dominant runner at the quarterback position, which keeps his fantasy value high.

The Bears offense took a big step forward in 2018 with Trubisky showing improvement from his rookie season. The sophomore signal-caller didn't post huge passing stats with 3,526 yards and 24 touchdowns in 14 games but he showed surprising rushing ability, gaining 430 yards on the ground. If he can take another step forward in 2019, Trubisky could be a top-six dynasty quarterback at this time next year.

Matt Ryan continues to be overlooked despite finishing as the QB2 in overall fantasy points last season. The veteran won't turn 34 until May, yet he continually goes overlooked by fantasy gamers. Ryan sets up as a perfect quarterback for contending teams to pursue in dynasty leagues.

Tier 5

Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston

Cousins got off to a fantastic start in his first season with the Vikings but he tailed off as the season wore on. Cousins isn't quite as good as he was at the beginning of 2018 but he also isn't as bad as he looked in the second half. He is properly valued as a fringe QB1/QB2 in dynasty formats who is best deployed as a matchup play instead of a locked-in, every week starter. That being said, he still has a Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen one-two punch that is as good as any pass-catching duo in the league.

Jimmy Garoppolo remains a bit of a mystery after an ACL tear limited him to just three games in 2018. The injury served to slow down the out of control hype that the quarterback was getting last offseason. While he has plenty of potential, keep expectations in check for the 27-year-old who has just 12 touchdowns in nine career games for San Francisco. Treat him more as a high-end QB2 for dynasty purposes until proven otherwise.

Lamar Jackson burst onto the scene in Week 11 against the Bengals, ripping off 119 rushing yards. He went on to accumulate 695 yards on the ground while reaching the end zone five times despite only starting seven games. His passing is still a work in progress but his rushing ability is so good that he merely needs to be adequate in the passing game to be a QB1 in fantasy. With another offseason for the Ravens to figure out how to best utilize Jackson, he could be an easy top-10 option next year.

Prescott has experienced plenty of value swings over his short career. A top-five dynasty quarterback for many in the middle of the 2017 season, a slow end to that season and start to 2018 served to depress his value. The midseason addition of Amari Cooper to the passing attack was exactly what Prescott needed to get going. He should be valued as a lower-end QB1 and is a strong buy if you can get him at QB2 value.

Winston should see his value continue to increase as hype builds following the team's decision to hire Bruce Arians. Arians' vertical passing offense appears to be a perfect fit for Winston's skill set.

Tier 6

Sam Darnold, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers

Darnold showed flashes in his rookie season, passing for 17 touchdowns and 2,865 yards in 13 games played. While he has loads of potential, a weak supporting cast keeps his dynasty value down for the time being, although that could change in a hurry considering the Jets have the second-most cap space available this offseason. He is a decent buy-low candidate if his owner isn't a believer. Owners in two-quarterback leagues should be going hard after Darnold if the price is right.

Roethlisberger turned in a spectacular age-36 season, finishing as the QB3 in fantasy scoring. That being said, he threatens to retire at least once per year and elite wide receiver Antonio Brown is almost a lock to be playing for a different team this upcoming season. Rebuilding teams should be aggressively shopping Big Ben this offseason.

Rivers is similar to Roethlisberger from an age and production standpoint but without the retirement threats. He finished the 2018 campaign as the QB11 in fantasy points. While not a threat to finish as the overall QB1, Rivers is among the most steady fantasy performers at the position. Look for another 2-3 years of solid production from the Chargers quarterback.

Tier 7

Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, Tom Brady

Stafford struggled through a down year in 2018 as the entire Lions offense struggled under defensive-minded first-year head coach Matt Patricia. Stafford's 3,777 passing yards from 2018 are the fewest of his career when playing 16 games and the first time he ever failed to hit at least 4,000. A savvy owner would be looking to buy him on the cheap as 2018 may very well go down as the worst season of his career. Look for him to return to low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers in 2019.

Brees and Brady are only down this low due to their advanced age. That being said, both remain highly productive fantasy quarterbacks. Brees completed an astounding 74.4% of his passes in 2018 while tossing 32 touchdowns. Of the two, Brady is starting to show his age a bit more, as he finished as just the QB14 last year. While his days as a locked-in QB1 are gone, Brady remains a steady matchup play for contenders in dynasty. At this point of their respective careers, they are probably worth more to you on your roster then they would fetch in a trade.

Tier 8

Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Marcus Mariota

Allen's big, yet erratic arm, was exactly as advertised but he made plenty of noise with his rushing production. Destined to be a better quarterback in fantasy than in real life, Allen should flirt with low-end QB1 numbers for as long as the Bills let him.

Rosen's rookie season was brutal but he certainly can't be blamed for much of his struggles. The Cardinals were among the worst teams in football last season. Their offensive line was a mess and the unimaginative offensive schemes deployed by Mike McCoy were so bad that he was fired after Week 7. New coach Kliff Kingsbury is known as a creative play-caller, which can be perceived as a good sign for Rosen. That being said, he might not be startable in fantasy for another year or two. He's nothing more than a stash at this point.

Mariota has flashed plenty of times in his career but he keeps getting hit by injuries. This past season he played through a painful nerve issue in his throwing elbow. When he's on the field, Mariota remains a high-upside fantasy quarterback with high-end rushing ability that makes him a dual-threat in fantasy. He is a solid buy-low in dynasty.

Tier 9

Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning

Dalton suffered another season-ending injury in 2018, limiting him to 11 games played. The veteran signal-caller will return to a solid surrounding cast but he is unlikely to be much more than a middling QB2 for fantasy purposes.

Carr was not particularly impressive in 2018, although some of that is the result of a team decision to tank the season. No one is rushing out to acquire Carr's services in dynasty, which makes him interesting in two-quarterback formats.

Foles and Bridgewater could both see their values sky-rocket depending on what happens during free agency. Foles will definitely be a starter somewhere next season, while there's a chance Bridgewater returns to New Orleans as the in-house replacement for when Drew Brees retires.

Manning is on his last legs and even an impressive collection of skill position players in New York around him can't save his fantasy value.

The Dolphins are expected to release Tannehill this offseason. He has a good chance to land another job as a starter. He should be on your radar in two-quarterback leagues and should be pretty cheap.

Flacco moves to Denver to take over for Case Keenum, who arguably had the better season in 2018. Either way, there isn't much to be excited about with the former Raven in the Mile High city.

Tier 10 and Above

Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, Alex Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Nick Mullens, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc.

Bortles will probably be a backup somewhere in 2019 as he has worn out his welcome in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are one of the rumored suitors for the services of Nick Foles.

Keenum played reasonably well for the Broncos in 2018 but the team went out and replaced him with Joe Flacco. Reports are the Broncos plan to shop Keenum with a chance they release him if there are no takers. He's another dirt cheap two-quarterback league option.

Smith won't play in 2019 after a gruesome leg injury. Taylor is a free agent who may have to settle for a backup quarterback role after flaming out as Cleveland's starter in 2018.

Mullens made a name for himself filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018 but will return to a backup role this season. He isn't worth rostering except in deep two-quarterback leagues. Rudolph could be stuck behind Big Ben from anywhere between one-to-five years, depending on how long the veteran signal-caller decides to play.

Fitzpatrick showed well in 2018 but his turnover-prone ways eventually led to him returning to the bench after a blazing-hot start to the season. He's a free agent this offseason and a team will surely pick him up as a backup.

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