RADIO
The second major of the year that is the PGA Championship is upon us and ReignMakers prices have seen back-to-back week's of average card values increasing. With some high profile events sandwhiched between the two majors that take place in the next month, now is a great time to get the most value out of your cards by either selling them for guaranteed profit, of finding some great value options on the market to add to your player pool.
If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics and few more sneaky tips that can help you along your journey of building a player pool that can provide you with both short term and long term upside.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
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ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in.
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my Masters model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards (usually #/600 edition tier) on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
Supply and Demand
We have seen the average price of cards go up by 40 cents before the Byron Nelson and 70 cents heading into the second major of the year. The uptick for the Byron was most likely some proactive players grabbing their guys for this week. It is promising to see prices go up, as that means that there is still profit to be made of buying and selling cards purely for profit on top of entering them into contests.
The most expensive golfers
The golfers who have seen their value INCREASE this week
68 golfers saw an increase of 50 cents or more since the Byron Nelson. The biggest percentage increase was as a result Adam Scott's back-to-back top-10s at the Byron and Wells Fargo sees his price double, while Tyrrell Hatton has seen the biggest dollar increase of $36.50 after two top-5s in his last two starts. If only there was a ReignMakers article that suggested Tyrrell Hatton as a great buy low option...
"I am not overly excited about his prospects in 1) Texas in a 2) Non-elevated event 3) on Bentgrass greens, but he is still one of the absolute top players on the board and with a few stellar performances could see that price tag grow." - Byron Nelson article.
A few other guys who have seen their price increase that were mentioned in last week's article were Tom Kim, Xander, Hoge, Power, Scheffler and the winner of the event, Jason Day.
The golfers who have seen their value DECREASE the most recently
51 golfers saw a decrease of 50 cents or more. K.H. Lee as the reigning back-to-back champ at the Byron Nelson Championship saw his price go on a bit of a rollercoaster and appears to be steadily returning back to where it skyrocketed from. What we can learn from this, is that the market really tends to react heavily to course history, particularly the most recent winner of an event (yes, going back-to-back probably saw a bigger surge than usual, but you get the idea).
Viktor is now priced at his lowest price since Augusta, while Cam Davis while make an appearance later in our article.
Short Term Targets
Although his price is getting close to his Masters price, Jon Rahm suits this course really well with accurate, booming drives, sizzling six irons from 200+ yards out, tidy touch around the treacherous green complexes, and impressive Bentgrass putting stats.
Patrick Cantlay is a fantasy scoring beast and now heads to a venue that has Bentgrass greens that he THRIVES on, leading the field in SG Putting in that department. He is half the price of Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, yet has finished inside the top-5 in four of his last eight starts, with his worst finish over that run being a T21. He provides incredible safety on a weekly basis and from a long term perspective, we have seen him play really well at the Tour Championship and has the 9th most FedEx Cup points so far, making that return very likely.
Sungjae Im has played 109 rounds in the last 12 months, which is the most by TEN rounds of the 13 dudes who have gained 1.5 strokes per round over that stretch. Sungjae has averaged the 7th most strokes gained on tour in the last year and is the 9th most expensive player available which seems like some solid value.
Cameron Young is now $66 and the cheapest he has been since the Masters. He has only played twice since and lost on approach for the first time this season in his last outing at Wells Fargo. He has finished inside the top-7 in three of his last 4 majors and from a ball striking stand point, his game could not translate to this week's venue any better. If he can figure out his short game, his $66 could very easily double as he starts contending for wins again.
Seamus Power is below $30 and has finished inside the top-20 in his last two starts, making that 10 top-25s in his last 15 starts. He finished T9 and T12 in the US Open and PGA last year, making the cut in four of his five major appearances in his career. He is cheap and relatively safe for the price you can acquire him for.
Matt Kuchar sits in the same price range as Seamus and heads to a course that is littered with bunkers around the greens. Luckily for Kuchar, he gets up and down for par 76% of the time from the sand, which leads the tour and is 25% more than tour average. Utterly ridiculous talent from around the greens.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has made 8 of his last 9 cuts at Majors and since changing coaches at the Players Championship, in the last 16 rounds he has played, finishing inside the top-30 all four times, he has averaged +1.06 strokes on approach gaining in 14 of them. That is 1.5 strokes better than the 16 rounds he played this year prior to the Players. He is a great Bentgrass putter and is an incredible talent out of greenside bunkers at $17.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Long Term Targets
These are golfers that grade out less than a 1 on my model for the PGA Championship, yet are still great long term prospects going forward.
Charles Schwab Challenge
Brendon Todd has back-to-back top-10s at the Charles Schwab Challenge which is taking place next week. Some other guys to target for the week who will see their price potentially soar are the defending champ Sam Burns $45, Collin Morikawa $68, Viktor Hovland $63, Brian Harman $15.75, and C.T Pan $6.
the Memorial
Billy Horschel is $13.99 right now and is the defending champ. With it being an elevated event, most of the guys we would target for course history have already been mentioned for the most part.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
Useful Resources
I have had two revered guests on my Podcast where we strictly talk about ReignMakers that go into the basics and nuances of their process and approach each week. I do a weekly ReignMaker show with @DraftMasterFlex on Mondays at 8ET if you want to tune into that for some more ReignMakers information that we will be discussing.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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