RADIO
The Byron Nelson is upon us and Scottie Scheffler is one hot commodity right now as he sits at 4-1 to win the entire event that lacks significant star power the week before the 2nd major of the year at Oak Hill.
If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics and few more sneaky tips that can help you along your journey of building a player pool that can provide you with both short term and long term upside.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
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ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in.
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my Masters model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards (usually #/600 edition tier) on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
Supply and Demand
The average price of a card has gone down by about $9 since the Masters, with it being about a $2 depreciation per week on average. Selling cards for a long-term profit is tricky with cards losing value weekly unless there was a very promising result the week before.
The most expensive golfers
The golfers who have seen their value INCREASE the most recently
Wyndham Clark winning the Wells Fargo Championship along with his stellar play leading up to the event has his $27 price tag almost doubling. Michael Kim is starting to play some really good golf again and his 7th place finish last week saw his price increase by close to double. Dylan Wu is another climber in the market and Aaron Wise leads the way with a 155% increase from $5.50 to $14 after returning to professional golf after a few weeks off.
As I can only write one article a week, follow me on twitter where I try to share some news relevant to the ReignMakers world so that you can act on that information if you want before its too late once the weekly article comes out.
The golfers who have seen their value DECREASE the most recently
The time to sell Rory was most likely last week. Seamus power will be in our next section as his price decrease seems peculiar.
Targets Playing This Week
These are some of the golfers we will want to target if you are looking to buy at a relatively low price and enter into your lineups for contests this week. The model is suggesting that the "Min Market Price" for RARE cards is lower than our calculated price for that golfer.
"Scottie Scheffler being the same price as Rory should be all you need to know that his card is currently underpriced. Grab double of him this week and then play all of them at the Byron Nelson, and then you should be able to sell half of them for a profit come the week of the PGA Championship" - Wells Fargo Writeup. Now priced where he should be for the week, the value on his price may not be there but he is still the massive favorite to walk away with hardware this week.
Tom Kim is double his age in price at $42 and has shown signs of increased distance in his game, which was really his only major drawback from contending at bigger ball parks where accuracy was not as necessary as distance. He now is hitting it further and it feels like the young super star is on the edge of doing something spectacular that makes us all get aboard the Tom Kim steam train again.
"Tyrrell Hatton was being sold for $150 the week of the Valero Championship and is now $36. He plays well on the east coast and is one of the better long iron players on tour, making him an appealing candidate for the Wells Fargo" Wells Fargo. I am not overly excited about his prospects in 1) Texas in a 2) Non-elevated event 3) on Bentgrass greens, but he is still one of the absolute top players on the board and with a few stellar performances could see that price tag grow.
Tom Hoge is $18 and ranks as the 4th best golfer in my Byron Nelson model. He is also a top-30 long-term player as his FedEx Cup points total and elite iron play is something I want to buy a lot of at this price. He is the golfer I will be buying the most of this week.
"Jason Day has dropped below $50 a card despite finishing inside the top-20 in 6 of his last 7 starts. He had top-10 finishes in 3 of them too. He now heads to Quail Hollow where his course history sees him sit as the Quail Queen alongside Quail King Rory" - Wells Fargo Writeup. He missed the cut and his price tag still went up by a $4. He still remains a model of consistency despite his poor performance at Quail last week.
Matt Kuchar loves himself some golf in Texas. He has played well here in the past and he is somebody who has shown a definite resurgence in form after two rather wishy-washy years coming out of the pandemic. His price is a little high, in my opinion, but the model really likes his long term prospects at #15.
Mark Hubbard seems to be finding some of the ball striking form he showed last season. He is rather inconsistent but at $8.50 a card it is a small price to pay for somebody who came close to winning the Sanderson Farms in the fall.
Seamus Power is our final target for this week with his T18 at the Wells Fargo Championship driving his price down? Either way, Power is affordable at $21.50 and is showing signs of life again after a rather disappointing run post-Masters.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Targets Not Playing This Week
These are golfers who are not playing this week. Their market prices are all popping as underpriced in comparison to what the Model has them set at.
Xander Schauffele is starting to put together a run of results that is quite remarkable. His last few starts include a 2nd, 4th, 10th, and 5th. At $90 that is rather spendy, but those results are really impressive and it looks like his driver is starting to find the form he had to end the season last year.
Taylor Moore is priced at $24 and is a small enough price that could see his price double quite easily with some good results. He has won an event already and now heads to a course that suits his long hitting ball striking repertoire.
Keegan Bradley is $24.99 and tends to show up at majors with three top-25s in his last 6 majors. He has lacked a little upside lately, but with a win this year he has 1181 FedEx Cup points which should help him make it further into the playoffs come the end of the year.
Brendon Todd played really well and putted out of his mind (which is what Todd tends to do), and sees his price go down after a T8 and finished third at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year which is the event after the PGA Championship. This price will very likely increase the week of the CSC and you can but a lot of him at $9.95.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
Useful Resources
I have had two revered guests on my Podcast where we strictly talk about ReignMakers that go into the basics and nuances of their process and approach each week. I do a weekly ReignMaker show with @DraftMasterFlex on Mondays at 8ET if you want to tune into that for some more ReignMakers information that we will be discussing.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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