X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - ZOZO Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (2022)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the ZOZO Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the ZOZO Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy. 

Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad. 

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

 

Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour's drive east of Tokyo, Japan, and it features what I would call a claustrophobic design. The venue emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature that requires golfers to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout, which means accuracy will take the top spot over distance for the week. That answer was probably naturally inferred by everyone reading this article when looking at the 7,100-yard layout of the land, but I do want to note that length isn't irrelevant if you try to think a little outside of the box when making your model. I didn't take such a strong stance in that direction since accuracy will provide more premium chances to score with your second shot, but maybe you can consider a flatter distribution and add GIR percentage to the mix if you are trying to get different.

Unfortunately, research starts to go out the window from there because of the lack of trackable data on the course. There are a unique five par-threes that the field will get daily, with each measuring under 200 yards. The three shorter ones rank inside the top six most accessible scoring chances for the event, whereas the two between 183-191 fall inside the nine most challenging. The 10 par-fours provide an eclectic dispersion of opportunities, and the distance from these holes will quickly show what we should expect from a scoring output. All six chances that place over 425 yards are in the top seven in difficulty, and we see the problems mold on the five between 486-505.

Usually, a shorter track like this would start to present ease in the par-fives to account for the smaller layout, but the three are fascinating when we consider the vast difference in expectation. I am not trying to recite 'Goldilocks and The Three Bears' when providing this answer, but one is easy, one is just right and the 608-yard behemoth yields, on average, a 21.9 percent birdie or better rate - one of the lowest percentages you will see all season at any stop.

On a final note, it is worth mentioning that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter. I don't think that the answer holds a ton of credence since I don't know how we statistically quantify "paying attention," but maybe some of the bogey avoidance numbers are worth a deeper dive since we do want golfers that can stay in the game when the going gets a little more challenging.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Narashino Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 282
Driving Accuracy 53% 62%
GIR Percentage 64% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 60% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.26 0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

SG: Total Short Par 70s With Average/Difficult Fairways (15%)
Average/Difficult Scoring At Short Courses (12.5%)
Weighted Par-Three (10%)
Weighted Par-Four (20%)
Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%)
Bogey Avoidance + Scrambling + Sand Save + Around The Green (17.5%)
Weighted OTT + APP (15%)

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group:

Xander Schauffele ($10,800) - I will admit that this is not my favorite tournament from a roster construction standpoint. For starters, the consistent pricing up top makes our lives challenging since the high-end options are theoretically worth the price of admission. But perhaps more importantly than that, the no-cut nature and limited field size will start to heighten the stars, all while diminishing some of the cheaper golfers on the slate. It doesn't mean we won't/shouldn't bargain-bin hunt, but the quality pricing has allowed only two golfers (Hayden Buckley/Dylan Frittelli) to be ranked inside the top 40 of my model from under $7,000, which is where this awkward dynamic comes into play for everyone since the most expensive players are worth the price tag, but how many do we want to take a shot on, even in a no-cut event, when the bottom-end falls off quickly?

Looking at this on a Monday morning from a leverage perspective, and I do want to note that things can change swiftly before Wednesday night, Xander Schauffele is shaping up to be the best pivot option on the board in the 10k section. The American has been a stellar no-cut golfer throughout his career, making it surprising the ownership hasn't jumped up higher at this point, and he is one of only 17 players that has played this event every time possible when held at Narashino Country Club. The knowledge is there, the talent is evident, and I would be surprised if Schauffele doesn't inevitably shift over into the "play" pile over the next few days.

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) -First and second-place finishes for Hideki Matsuyama at Narashino means that only Tiger Woods has beaten him at the venue over his two tries, so why isn't the Japanese sensation an automatic pencil-in for me on home turf?

I don't have a problem with anyone that wants to use him - evidenced by his ranking of fifth in my model from an overall rank perspective, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I had some concerns with the current form when paying this price and ownership. The salary is set in stone, so we aren't going to get around that, but unless the popularity takes a dip to provide some leverage, I will likely be on the outside looking in this week.

Collin Morikawa ($10,200) - I like Collin Morikawa from a GPP perspective if the ownership can drop a little, but I assume that won't be the case with most of the early public money backing him in the outright market. That is generally a good indicator of where the popularity is heading for DFS builds, but I will keep him on the fence for now, even if he is leaning toward being a fade candidate because of his current volatile form and high public interest

Sungjae Im ($10,000) - I see it as we can get away with playing half these golfers at $10,000 or above. When we go higher, the builds will become too similar to everyone else, and if we go less, we probably are forfeiting too much win equity up top.

I am going to trust my model after it ranked Sungjae Im to be the man to beat this week, and while the price tag did open up a can of worms since $10,000 flat is way too cheap, I am fine eating some chalk with the five top-15 finishes he has provided in a row. I think there are multiple reasons this play makes sense at almost any ownership total that is reasonable, and it will take a high percentage for me to shift out of Im as an option.

As of Monday:

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Tom Kim ($9,700) - I don't know what else there is to say about Tom Kim that hasn't already been mentioned. The public loves him, the metrics always grade out well and the upside is there after multiple victories to start his career before turning 21.

The answer remains to be seen how Kim fares weekly on more challenging courses, but this is a spot where the high popularity does marginally concern me in a no-cut contest. When a player is not grading out to achieve either a positive trajectory for upside or a contrarian outlook for ownership in my model, you can sometimes take a shot against the safer golfers at the top of the board and hope they don't beat you with a victory. I am not sure if that is what I am considering doing at this point or not, but I am weighing all options.

Viktor Hovland ($9,500) - I don't hate the upside potential, but I would need sub-five percent to play Viktor Hovland at this salary cost.

Cameron Young ($9,300) - I mentioned in the course breakdown section how distance is a unique angle to look into at the ZOZO Championship, and the reason for that stems from the long par-fours and fives that will require some semblance of length to avoid big numbers.

There is no golfer in the field with more distance off the tee than Cameron Young (other than Cameron Champ), but the main difference between the two is I do believe Young's irons and short game can be good enough to win here if the driver works the way it is capable of for the week.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) - There are some red flags regarding weighted proximity and OTT + APP in my model, but other than Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood is the only other golfer $9,000+ to grade positive in all areas of my sheet.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100) - If the numbers shift over the next few days, I can jump off, but a 2.4% version of Tyrrell Hatton is enticing for multiple reasons. We can get more into that in the Wednesday DraftKings article if things still remain steady.

Corey Conners ($9,000) - Ownership will be the big decider.

 

As of Monday:

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Cam Davis ($8,500), Scott Stallings ($8,200) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000) are the three that intrigue me most, but I am not rushing to this section.

 

As of Monday:

We will talk more about this group on Wednesday.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top-35 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

You can use my model, but the two highest graders are Hayden Buckley and Dylan Frittelli. John Huh and Adam Long take nice jumps when running it purely for upside. 

 

Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:

$10,000 - Sungjae Im ($10,000)
$9,000 - Cameron Young ($9,300) - Best upside for the price.
$8,000 - TBD
$7,000 - Aaron Rai ($7,500) - I also really like Rickie Fowler...
$6,000 - TBD

 

List of Golfers To Grade In The Top-30 Of All Scoring Sections:

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Randy Rodríguez

Tommy John Surgery Recommended for Randy Rodriguez
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Chris Godwin

to Miss First Month of Season, Possibly More
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering Return to College
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice, Expected to Play in Week 1
Jaylen Wright

Undergoes Surgery, Could be Back "Septemberish"
Tyreek Hill

on Track to Play in Week 1
Kyren Williams

to See Reduced Workload?
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP