Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2026 Arnold Palmer. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my dynamic "PGA Rankings Wizard Model."
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Fantasy PGA DraftKings Lineup Picks - Arnold Palmer
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Arnold Palmer
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (353-277-34) 56.00%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (714-527-103) 57.53%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 55
- Units: +341.218 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2026
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/3-Ball Articles
- Twelve first-round leader wins over the last few years.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $249.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space and includes work from Joe Nicely, Patrick Gates, Ian McNeill, Todd McGill, Matt Miller, and me.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Riviera | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 287 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 53% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 55% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.36 | 0.54 |
The Arnold Palmer Field
- Field Size: 72
- Cut: T50 & Ties - Within 10 of the lead
- Top 20 Entrants: 18
Last Five Winners of the Arnold Palmer
| 2025 | Russell Henley | -11 |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -15 |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama | -9 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -5 |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau | -11 |
Expected Cut Line
| 2025 | |
| 2024 | |
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 |
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
7,466 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
Bay Hill has one of the highest rollover predictability rates between seasons on tour, which isn't exactly the narrative you might expect from a venue that has generated various strokes-gained interpolations over the last five years. We have seen approach play, around-the-green production, and off-the-tee acumen take turns holding the highest precedence for success during that iteration of the contest.
The fact that putting is the lone answer missing from that list might help to better define unpredictable putting returns and merge them into something more sustainable from a yearly perspective. However, this is a venue where you can't "really fake it until you make it." All four strokes gained metrics are vital, and it is one of the reasons in-event correlations produce a steady distribution across the board and generally heighten quality play at a higher rate than most stops on tour. Essentially, good golfers across the bag separate themselves from the pack at a dispersion rate that shows why Bay Hill rewards the best players in the world.
One of the reasons for that is because we are looking at a 7,466-yard difficult scoring test that features 85 sand traps, nine holes with water and brutal rough that makes stopping your ball on fiery fast greens nearly impossible if you aren't approaching from the fairway. It is not to say that quality production can't still be found on your four par-five locations or three sub-400-yard par-four holes. Still, when you remove those seven sites from the mix, the other 11 zones have somewhere between a 5-18% higher rate to make bogey or worse than they do to generate a birdie or better.
Overall, an all-around game will go a long way for those trying to succeed, but that answer always limits the metrics, since it opens the playing field to all game types to find upside.
First Look Into Outright Bets
Check my Vegas Report and the Discord chat room.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read? You can show your support for Spencer by using discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 30% off and full access to all Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS/betting tools, and Lineup Optimizers! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite DFS Plays for the Arnold Palmer
Here are all the golfers to move over 10% on Bookmaker between Tuesday to Wednesday (implied probability getting higher for their win). Some of these names I am not in on this week, but it does help to show where sharp movement is happening.
Model
I ran a portion of my model to eliminate anyone outside the top 45 for either overall or upside. With that threshold in place, I also eliminated anyone to feature a negative grade in both overall rank versus DK price and overall rank versus ownership. That included two outlooks of upside and overall. The last requirement I attached was to remove anyone who drifted on Bookmaker by over 1% between Tuesday and Wednesday.
That list left a very large group of golfers, but I like the idea of showing all names and letting people use my model to dive a little deeper into my ranks.
Best Values From The List Above
***Please note that this list is going to always skew toward this range because it is taking a look at DK difference versus overall rank.
Pierceson Coody ($7,600)
I've said my peace with Pierceson Coody this week.
I spent an entire King of the Draft show trying to make the audience give him to me, ultimately watching him get drafted by them.
Coody ranked sixth in my model for Weighted Scoring and 12th for in-event correlation. I remain a believer that a massive breakout is about to occur.
Jacob Bridgeman ($7,700)
After winning at the Genesis, Bridgeman looks like he is going to come in at under 10%.
In a lot of ways, this is a much better course fit for him than where he just won.
Pierceson Coody ($7,600)
Gerard disappointed at the Cognizant because of the short-game. The ball-striking metrics have been popping for a few weeks and might be about to surge him up the leaderboard.
Jordan Spieth ($7,400)
Spieth is boom-or-bust, although eight straight rounds of shooting par or better is a nice return for him. In the crazy world of my model, the safety metrics are looking promising.
Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,600)
The course history helps to explain some of the Weighted Course answers above, but the form is hard to ignore.
More PGA Analysis and Picks
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